Admiral Share Discussion Threads

[sat69] 16/7/2008 17:15

I hope EK has closed his short - for his sake!

[barnetpeter] 16/7/2008 15:55

Up 12% on bid rumours. Gone into auction. Naturally no-one knows anything.

[sat69] 28/6/2008 22:07

Holding up well considering all the blood on the streets.

[liquidkid] 30/5/2008 12:07

74% of US Admiral Shares. Maybe the jump was a placing?

[benson] 29/5/2008 16:19

What leads you to £9.50?

[phatprofit] 29/5/2008 16:10

benson - lol

Still reckon this will close above £9.50 before collapsing. Be sure to cover yourself, just incase ;)

[benson] 28/5/2008 11:40

Up 5% on less than 400,000 shares. Not very convincing (he says nervously, being short)

[liquidkid] 28/5/2008 11:07

Heads up, no news no mention and its up 5% The only thing related to it in its sector is that RBS is running out of suitors for churchill with everyone saying that they are asking too much - now expected to get £6 - 7.5 bln.

- Landsbanki Kepler said that paying more than eight to 10 times earnings for a direct U.K. motor business would not be wise considering the high volatility of the sector and the softening of non-life motor cycle in Europe.

[kibes] 15/5/2008 19:41

I agree it makes some very strange moves which look like manipulation. For example in August 2007 it went up from 800p to 1000p in just a few days and then right back down again just as fast. There was no particular reason given for this at the time. I am not sure how SETS stocks are manipulated but I agree with you. I would also open a short at 1000p if it gets there again. On the purely fundamental side I can't understand how it is doing so well when competition in both motor insurance and comparison websites is now absolutely vicious. The comparison websites must surely cause a downward spiral of quotes or insurers will find they do not get any business against the competition. I have just switched a car from Morethan to Churchill with a quote half the price. And next year I will no doubt change again.

[phatprofit] 15/5/2008 11:24

Buyers ? not necessarily kibes - this rise is completely manuipulated and could have further to travel. My guess is that we'll touch £10 at some point within the next 2-3 months. Though were this to happen it'll present an exceptional shorting opportunity.

P

[kibes] 15/5/2008 10:50

It is going up right now but I don't think the outlook is good. P/e ratio is too high for a company in a very competitive market place. Consensus estimate is 52p eps for 2008 so current p/e ratio is 17. I think 12 would be more realistic which would give a share price of 624p. However people seem to want to buy it at the moment.

[graham99114] 13/5/2008 23:44

Here's my thoughts - for what its worth - feel free to shoot me down - after all debate is healthy - by the way I no longer have a short or long position in ADM

I had a lot of confidence in ADM (long) - but I gave up and sold out in mid January

see my post

graham99114 - 21 Jan'08 - 12:04 - 148 of 180 edit


im out - sold the lot - 34K worth for a measly 9K profit - could have been much more if I sold earlier

I used the money to buy in to oil

two companies SEY & DGO - they have shot up 30% and 22% respectively

we (as in the UK if not the world - Australia next) are heading into a global recession - what happens (historically) in a recession ?? - people steal because they are short of cash - consequences - more insurance claims from the victims - also - oops I need a new ?????? - lets make an make a frauldulant insurance claim - believe me the insurance companies are not in a good position at the moment - as always IMHO - I feel a little guilty about coming back to the ADM thread having seemingly "deserted" the Company - but maybe my "slant" on the picture might help - but then again maybe not - night

[phatprofit] 13/5/2008 17:13

850 holding well. I suggest another hike above £9 is in order.

Any chartist's have a view as to how high this may go before the dreaded drop ?

[kibes] 06/5/2008 19:16

I really like confused.com in fact I have just renewed a car insurance through them. But how can insurers survive the relentless downwards pressure on premiums caused by this sort of beauty contest between providers (of which Admiral is one)? And although confused is doing well it also has serious competition from the likes of moneysupermarket, comparethemarket etc. These people are going to compare themselves to death if they are not careful. And re-the comment about Churchill they were by far the lowest quote (which I took) but it was so low I really wonder how they expect to make any money on it. I suspect they are under pricing to gain market share, but that will come home to roost in due course.

[liquidkid] 02/5/2008 15:54

Is this going up on the premise that if private equity want to pay £8bn to buy Churchill from RBS which makes about £500-600mn a year, then Admiral, which is going to make about £200mn should be worth somewhere north of about £3bn? -Which is a share price of £11.50

[liquidkid] 30/4/2008 12:04

It's odd that a £2bn market cap company can jump over 5% on just a measly broker upgrade. Just goes to show how thin the equity market is at the moment.

[ronmikeh] 30/4/2008 09:26

Sounds like good reasoning to me. Thanks.

[phatprofit] 30/4/2008 09:21

wait till it tops £9 ronmike - that should provide an ideal opp. on a short-medium term objective.

[ronmikeh] 30/4/2008 07:40

Looking to short this share,trying to find an entry point before it drops. Any thoughts??

[phatprofit] 29/4/2008 16:57

824 looks to be resistance could break this and head towards £9 - making that 'expected' fall all the more glamorous. LOL

[sat69] 24/4/2008 17:03

Simon

I cannot see the 730p level being revisited - but there again I do not have your level of experience. I currently have no position - Good luck!

sat

[simon cawkwell] 24/4/2008 15:27

Sat69,

I first sold at 920p and again at 1050p.

As it happens, my wife has just been attending to renewals in respect of our two cars. The quotes are roughly half what we paid last year. I think rates are proving more competitive. This must be bad for ADM.

Simon Cawkwell

[sat69] 21/4/2008 22:07

Interesting how only 4 ADVFN users have expressed a view, and all 4 say this is a SELL. However, I believe the bottom was at around 730p, and we will not visit that level again - EVER! If we do, that will be my entry level (I still have no position - I wonder if Graham is thinking of buying back in!)

What is your average entry price for your short Simon?