Admiral Share Discussion Threads

[wellsi] 20/9/2009 20:33

ADM has done very well since June, but is there anything left? It's starting to look like the possibility of a significant increase is quite low, but a pullback is quite possible. (That's what the chart suggests to me)

So although a long time holder, I'm considering looking at selling (as I'm back into profit) and looking elsewhere.

[hosede] 04/9/2009 12:21

NOPE! Bear market rallies historically are much more extreme than bull markets

[aka poppa07] 28/8/2009 07:09

hosede - 25 Aug'09 - 10:45 - 32 of 32


Still watching Poppa - lots of Cos. are breaching channels (in throwovers) like this at the moment. But this crazy bear market rally has to end sometime and when it does I'll dust off the shorting boots, because the ride down is going to be huge!
=============================================================================
Shouldn't that be Bull Market?

[hosede] 25/8/2009 10:45

Still watching Poppa - lots of Cos. are breaching channels (in throwovers) like this at the moment. But this crazy bear market rally has to end sometime and when it does I'll dust off the shorting boots, because the ride down is going to be huge!

[poppa07] 21/8/2009 09:53

hosede hows the short working out for you? ;-)

[marketshaker] 20/8/2009 09:59

20% rise since start of July. Amazing for a boring insurance broker.

[hosede] 19/8/2009 11:08

Hitting the roof of the long term downtrend channel. Could be a good time to go short

[poppa07] 30/7/2009 22:00

I work for them, so am as please to see it on the rise, but it's only gone up 6.72% this month so far. Nothing to really go shouting about yet.

Lets see it get back to its highs of around £11 and maybe there will be a few more posts.

[marketshaker] 30/7/2009 17:32

What a mover over last week! No comments from anyone?

[brain smiley] 19/6/2009 16:43

poppa

hows the profit going for adm?

[brain smiley] 10/6/2009 10:35

poppa07

this share has just "died". It moves up slightly and the sellers move in.

[poppa07] 09/6/2009 20:06

I work for them and they're still hiring staff agressivly and rolling out brands in other companies.

[brain smiley] 05/6/2009 10:16

dismal share performance.

Could be money moving from a "defensive" insurance company to Aviva and Prudential or there's bad trading news coming. Probadly the former.

Any views ??

[whowantstobeamillionaire] 29/5/2009 17:43

whhhhhhhoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooossssssssssssssssssssssssshhhhhhhhh :)

[nicksoj] 29/5/2009 17:42

lets get real,

all the talk is of a double dip to sub 4000FTSE. ADM is following the FTSE 100 line very carefully from parity @ £9.

If your looking for quick upside, this aint the place. Strong company, performance etc... but as a hedge it will only consolidate @ circa £9.

Ray of hope in the mid term to complement ancillary income:

Reinsurance agreement from 06:

Admiral's Share of Premium

The new quota share arrangements and the re-negotiation of the coinsurance
contract gives Admiral the following flexibility with respect to how much of its
UK car insurance premium it can underwrite itself:

+------------------+---------------+---------------------+------------------+
|Underwriting Year |Minimum Admiral|Committed to |Share that Admiral|
| |share |Co-insurance and |has option to |
| | |Quota share contracts|insure or reinsure|
+------------------+---------------+---------------------+------------------+
|2007 | 22.5% | 77.5% | 0% |
+------------------+---------------+---------------------+------------------+
|2008 | 25.0% | 72.5% | 2.5% |
+------------------+---------------+---------------------+------------------+
|2009 | 25.0% | 60.0% | 15.0% |
+------------------+---------------+---------------------+------------------+
|2010 | 25.0% | 52.5% | 22.5% |
+------------------+---------------+---------------------+------------------+
|2011 | 25.0% | 45.0% | 30.0% |
+------------------+---------------+---------------------+------------------+
|2012 onwards | 25.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% |
+------------------+---------------+---------------------+------------------+

Commenting on the extended contract, Admiral's Chief Executive Henry Engelhardt,
said, "Admiral's use of coinsurance and reinsurance support has helped us
combine rapid growth with cash generation and significant dividend payments. In
addition, it has helped us to provide our shareholders with a higher quality,
lower risk profit stream by providing some protection against the underwriting
cycle.

"However, our consistent track record of outperformance versus the UK motor
market means that our underlying insurance business continues to generate
returns on capital significantly above our cost of capital. It makes sense for
us to position ourselves for the next up-turn and to look to generate profit
growth, not only through improved combined ratios, but also through the option
of keeping a larger share of the premium written for our own account.

"Considering where we are in the UK car insurance underwriting cycle, we feel it
is prudent to delay any substantial increase in Admiral's retained share at
least until 2009, especially given the availability of support from reinsurers
of the calibre of Swiss Re and Partner Re."

Henry Engelhardt goes on to say that, "Munich Re and its subsidiary, Great Lakes
have been fantastic partners for Admiral and we look forward to a long and
mutually beneficial relationship for years to come. We are also glad to deepen
our reinsurance relationships with Swiss Re and Partner Re. These contracts give
us a firm foundation for the growth of our UK business over the coming years."

As well as the multinational growth we should see the genius work of Admiral Underwriting/Pricing Management take more premium to direct profit from 2009. IMO!

[phatprofit] 29/5/2009 14:21

pathetic share price behaviour of late - can't help thinking we're due a pop soon.

Looking for a 25% gain over the next few months though realise we're overvalued at these levels.

Await the squeeze ..........


P

[poppa07] 14/5/2009 16:04

It was artificially raised to £9.50 by the dividend!

[brain smiley] 08/5/2009 11:06

rubbish recent perfromance !

Even with the 27p dividend -finance shares are on the up and this isn't.

It has to be the stake reduce by Munich - some people are selling. This was 950 when that news broke.

[poppa07] 07/5/2009 17:02

No, its just the fact it got inflated by poople buying for the dividend. now they don't need to hold anymore they've sold up.
I'd hope it would stablise around £9 in the next week or so.

[brain smiley] 07/5/2009 10:57

poppa

Why you think the share are falling when other finaincials are doing so well ?

Is there a thought that Munich might to sell all of the holding shortly and that could lead to less favourably unwriting rates for Admiral ?

[poppa07] 03/5/2009 13:03

I'm as bulish as the next person (I work for Admiral) but be wary of a drop on Wednesday when it goes Ex-dividend.

[brain smiley] 01/5/2009 10:17

Even after Munich notified they were selling some of their stake yesterday morning, the share price fell to 915 and then rose to 950. Has to be a bullish sign.

Hopefully, the buyers of the Munich stake are long term holders and won't sell into any short term rise.

[spob] 01/5/2009 07:47

Admiral Group slid 4.1 per cent to 911p after Munich Re sold 13m shares, cutting its stake in the car insurer from 15.1 per cent to 10.2 per cent.

[phatprofit] 30/4/2009 17:55

A cool £130,000,000 trade went through this morning. Price indicates it as a sell but i'm not so sure.

For the time being i am buying with a ST target of £11.

20% gains from current levels.


P

[brain smiley] 30/4/2009 16:26

Anyone know what price the shares were placed at ?