Admiral Share Discussion Threads

[deanroberthunt] 10/11/2011 10:58

don't know how supposed bright analysts/brokers et al can expect a ftse100 company to keep growing at 15%+ year in year out......it's still grown 10% on 2010 even without the lower H2 profit.....even if it only grows at 2-3% over the next 5 years, that'll still give a profit in the order of £400m....and at £2bn mcap thats a low ratio of earnings to value.

[macau] 10/11/2011 10:53

way oversold looking to going back to 900p soon..I hope

[grahamburn] 10/11/2011 10:28

deanbroberthunt. Think you'll find that it's INVESCO buying Homeserve and not INVESTEC.

ps O/T Have yoyu seen the Homeserve bounceback this morning following its RNS and subsequent conference call which, it is reported on the Homeserve bulletin board, implied that they are not bust and that the FSA will not be investigating further (haven't checked that out yet by listening to the playback so might not be right).

[penycae] 10/11/2011 10:09

Morning all. Took a small punt here on the long side this morning.
It's just a Welsh thing........

[deanroberthunt] 10/11/2011 10:08

Price action looks like Cruella de Ville is filling her boots again...."Good Morning to you Mr Broker, I wish to purchase more stock in that lovely Insurance company with Wellington and the Parrott"...."Yes, Maam, how many would you like"......"Ten Million Pounds worth please, darling"...........Silence..................."Hello"..............."Hello"..........."What, today!!".........."Oh yes, dear, just petty cash, darling".

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 18:46

and their target was hit earlier today, so they can now fill their boots.

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 18:44

lol, but Investec are buying Homeserve, which is bust.....

[essentialinvestor] 09/11/2011 18:42

I am still trying to get my head around an £8.5 million buy - not holding
luckily.

[the ballcock] 09/11/2011 18:37

Investec says that "dark clouds [are] forming" at insurance giant Admiral, as it reiterates its sell rating and 843p target.

Shares plunged on Wednesday morning after the firm's statement which warned 2011 profits would be at the lower end of expectations (just 10% higher than 2010) due to a jump in personal injury claims.

"We see this IMS as an admission that Admiral is not immune from market forces and this will disappoint the market, we believe. It remains our view that significantly out-performing a commoditised market for sustained periods is impossible," said Investec analyst Kevin Ryan.

[jon827] 09/11/2011 18:27

this not see 818 again, well maybe not for a while anyway!

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 18:06

Admiral Group Non-Executive Director, Colin Holmes, has this afternoon bought
15,000 Admiral Group plc shares at a price of GBP8.90. His wife, Linda Holmes, has
this afternoon also bought 15,000 Admiral Group plc shares at a price of GBP8.88.

they had the same idea as me.

[spob] 09/11/2011 17:39

She doesn't need to worry about propping up Admiral, if she's got that much to fritter away.

[the ballcock] 09/11/2011 17:35

wud u stick a few shares down her knickers lol ?

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 17:29

she's been filling her gold and iamond festonned boots....

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 17:26

Diane Briere de l'Isle, the wife of Admiral Group Chief Executive Officer, Henry
Engelhardt, has today bought 1,000,000 Admiral Group plc shares at an average
price of GBP8.74.

lol, £8.74m pounds worth.

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 14:51

hey hum :)

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 14:29

Fair comment Kibes

They generate an awful lot of free cashflow, so, they need to be looking to use that grow organically and/or through acquisition....

[kibes] 09/11/2011 14:22

deanroberthunt - a lot of their profits have been due to 'ancillary services'. I do not know what this is exactly but in a grim recession I know that I personally want to buy as little ancillary services as possible. The company's rating has been absurdly high in the past, but I accept that at the current price a p/e ratio of 11 is not unreasonable. However other insurance companies like AV.,RSA and LGEN are generally on p/e ratios of less than 10 so why should Admiral be any different? It has been a highly rated glamour stock but the price action today says that those days are over.

[senator] 09/11/2011 12:01

Dean,

There is more scope for error when you are using pennies as opposed to the full figures for Profit & Market Cap.

I agree that a Divi of 5% is cool in todays market, however, as you point out it will not be sustained so that is no longer a reason to hold.

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 10:59

sp is back to 2006 levels...

H1 2006

Sales £359m
PBT £68.7m

H1 2011
Sales £1bn
PBT £160m

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 10:48

currently running at 5% if maintained.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 09/11/2011 10:43

Actually, just found (should really spend a little more time but no plans to buy anyway) that the interim dividend is not going to be sustained at the level quoted:



Admiral Group plc confirms its Interim Dividend for the period ended 30
June 2011 of 39.1pence per share consists of 19.4pence Normal Dividend and
19.7pence Special Dividend.

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 10:43

you stood by to be corrected...your words.

there's a big difference between 10.5 and 12

[senator] 09/11/2011 10:39

Dean,

No need to split hairs on how we come to the PE - suffice it to say that it WAS too high unless exceptional growth could be sustained - it is now more realistic.

imatsu,

I suspect the dividuend policy was to keep investors sweet and was, again, based on exceptional growth. I expect that they will be more conservative in future as they will may need to hold some funds back if personal injusry claim continue to rise at current levels.

Indeed the loss ratio has increased at an alarming rate of late.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 09/11/2011 10:34

I know little about insurance providers - but is that correct that they have a 90% combined loss ratio?

i.e. they pay out 90% of premiums in running costs or adminstrative costs? And have a dividend at the interim of 38p versus earnings of 43p?

That would seem to me (and as I say I know little about market ratios and competitors etc) to be akin to running on empty at 100 mph - there is nothing left from what they take in for any unforseen problems.

Headline earnings and PE ratios and dividend yields etc quoted above are broadly correct - but the business of insurance is different to retailing etc and more akin to banking - reserves and liquidity is key.

Hope they know what they are doing...