Admiral Share Discussion Threads

[nicksoj] 02/2/2009 21:05

Stu,

you may be correct. Could just be seeing the downside breakout. however, ADM needs to get away from UKX shadow before I commit down.

[kibes] 28/1/2009 18:50

And up it goes! If only I could bring myself to buy it. But I can't unfortunately.

[kibes] 27/1/2009 16:04

nicksoj - no I have no position, it is far too dangerous to short this in my opinion. The price is held up in high orbit by unknown forces, so there is no reason at all why it shouldn't go up to 1200p or higher. Its all absolute nonsense, but I assume there are people out there who think this is a wonderful buy.

[stu31] 23/1/2009 20:44

don't worry not long to wait now..

[nicksoj] 23/1/2009 12:58

kibes, I take it you have a sizeable short?

[kibes] 23/1/2009 09:09

Some p/e ratios for insurance companies just taken off ADVFN:

AV. 5.2
LGEN 4.7
RSA 6.6
PRU 6.9
ADM 18.3

Can anyone spot the odd one out? No? Clue: It begins with an A.

[hosede] 20/1/2009 14:01

Shorting allowed now but it's showing no sign of tanking like the banks and even the Life insurance COs. (AV. well down today and even its prefs AV.A and AV.B)

[kibes] 16/1/2009 20:12

Can anyone explain what is holding this up for so long? Basically a bog standard insurance business with a comparison website which faces very strong competition, why should this be on a p/e ratio bigger than 10 in the current market? 400p maximum in my opinion.

[kibes] 02/12/2008 13:13

hosede - up it goes again! Perhaps it will reach 1200p by January when shorters can return I think. A nice whoosh up just before then would be ideal.

[hosede] 02/12/2008 09:03

You can't short the b*gger - yet!

[sat69] 30/11/2008 15:16

Holding up quite well considering all the mayhem out there.

[kibes] 19/11/2008 10:57

The ancillary income is a mirage in my opinion, it will just vanish into thin air when people have absolutely no spare cash and want only rock bottom basic policies. Which can easily be found using Admiral's own helpful search engine confused.com - from their competitors. In fact all the extra goodies can be had for nothing anyway it is so competitive.

And still the shares go up! Doesn't look like a hedge fund closing a short, the rise is too long and persistent. People must really believe they have found the Golden Goose. Whilst the rest of the stock market totally craters, still they buy.

[stu31] 14/11/2008 01:09

motor insurance is certainly a requirement..but this isn't (from The Times above)
"More important, Admiral's ancillary income – fees from selling cover for legal expenses, breakdown and car hire, which account for half the company's pretax profits – was unchanged on a per-policy basis at £69, suggesting a comforting level of resilience given that it is the component of the company's bottom line most vulnerable to a consumer slowdown".

So this consumer slowdown will have absolutely no effect on ADM ancillary income..none at all says the market..that's interesting says I, how come every other consumer related stock on the planet has been absolutely hammered then..

kibes one possibility is that a hedge fund with a large short is in trouble and has to close..pure speculation..could also be that collapsing consumer spending will have absolutely no impact on ADM lol

[kibes] 13/11/2008 09:01

Yes its true it may not be affected by the credit crunch but it is in an extremely competitive market even so. I can't understand what is holding the share price up, you would think that institutions would dump it just to raise some cash in these difficult times.

[spob] 13/11/2008 07:31

you can short Amlin though

don't know why, but it's not on the Alistair in wonderland list


oh and BTW, motor insurance is a legal requirement

meaning the credit crunch will have minimal effect on this co

[stu31] 12/11/2008 22:23

was a bit of tongue in cheek sarcasm kibes..bit of mischief going on here probably..every other financial stock in the world is discounting virtual depression next year..as it should cos that's what's on the way..yet someone can't get enough ADM..unfortunately can't short it

[kibes] 12/11/2008 09:24

Very touching faith stu31! Personally I would rather put my savings under the mattress than invest anything in Admiral shares. p/e ratio is now ridiculous for the current market, a drop of 50% would bring it down to a more realistic level.

[stu31] 06/11/2008 20:30

great to find the only financial company in the world that is completely unaffected by the credit crunch and recession..I have finally found a haven for all my savings in these troubled times

[hosede] 10/10/2008 15:57

Well quite a positive update today so I exited the short for a reasonable profit at 790 - shame I can't go short again now at 890 - I suppose I should have bought shares at 790 and kept the short in place, but the markets have been so clogged today it's been difficult to trade

[kibes] 07/10/2008 15:49

Yes the price of ADM is absolutely hilarious considering the current market. Totally ridiculous, what on earth is keeping it up at this level? Do people think it is a safe haven in a storm? I certainly don't. If you are lucky enough to have a short on I would hold it right down to 100p personally.

[hosede] 07/10/2008 11:17

Thats why you need gold - all this started when Nixon unpegged the dollar from gold. No idea why ADM is climbing when everything else is falling - PE nearly 20 yield below 1.5% - still I can afford to hold my short for months even years.

[kibes] 07/10/2008 10:38

I am puzzled what happens too. Since all the major world banking systems seem to be collapsing together there does not seem to be any real reason why exchange rates should be altered. Perhaps all the major currencies will become like Zimbabwe dollars!

[hosede] 07/10/2008 10:10

That's it - it's the old story "when you owe your bank a million..... The Arabs and Chinese dare not try to cash in any significant part of their massive dollar holdings as it would cause a total collapse and they would be the losers, so they are propping up the dollar while desparately trying to convert into "real" assets. The trouble is that the "real" assets - banks airlines hotels etc. are all going bust:-) In the end the dollar has to fall, but against what? sterling and the Euro are not in a much better state

[kibes] 07/10/2008 09:36

hosede - certainly the Russians weren't paying any interest on their debts but I think quite a lot was eventually paid back as times got better. In the main their debts were put on hold rather than written off I think. In their current situation the Russian government is actually cash rich as a result of high oil prices I believe. In 1998 the oil price crashed as well - internally within Russia oil was selling for less than $5 a barrel at one point! I was working for an oil company and we were within an inch of going bust and survived only by rigorous cash flow control.

Yes a default on debts might be an attractive way out for the US. Or another technique is to allow inflation to run so hard that all debts are devalued. What makes the situation more complex is that the dollar is accepted as the world currency of last resort, so if it collapses (as the rouble did) I don't think anyone knows what happens next. What do the Chinese and Arabs do with their massive holdings in dollars? I wonder what billionaires are doing with their money right now?

Interesting article: