Admiral Share Discussion Threads

[hosede] 07/10/2008 08:51

Kibes
Your Russian experience sounds interesting - wasn 't that when they defaulted on their debts: seems on the cards that the US will eventually do the same. They're producing all this money like rabbits out of hats and their debts are spiralling.

[hosede] 07/10/2008 00:02

Sat - what difference will a rate cut make? Nobody is lending to anyone and if they are, Libor is the key rate - The BOE is impotent in this situation - and so really are governments. Many commentators say the 700Bn is not a bail-out but a time-out postponing the crisis til the next administration comes in. The deflationary spiral develops a life of its own and becomes unstoppable just like a hurricane. It sure is exciting (as long as your life doesn't depend on it:-)

[sat69] 06/10/2008 18:18

Hose - Good call with your short. There may be a 0.5% rate cut by the B of E on Thursday. Will you still have your short running?

[kibes] 06/10/2008 18:11

hosede - you may be right. I have actually lived through a crash because I was working in Russia in 1998 when the economy totally collapsed. There was nothing worth anything at all then - the rouble was worthless, hardly any salaries were paid, banks collapsed taking all depositors cash with them, flats were worthless (you could buy a good flat for $500), shares were worthless (you could have bought the entire fleet of Aeroflot for $70 million which is less than 1 plane costs I believe) and Gazprom the largest gas holding company in the world was worth just a few hundred million dollars. This was when Abramovich bought Sibneft for $180 million on borrowed money (and good luck to him, he was the only person brave enough). That was the collapse of communism, are we now going to see the same thing with the collapse of capitalism? Its touch and go in my opinion. Deleveraging of $1000 trillion of assets? Its more than enough to do the job isn't it?

[hosede] 06/10/2008 12:40

This article may give some idea of the problem

[hosede] 06/10/2008 12:17

Not sure about gold Kibes - Robert Prechter the Elliot Wave supremo, predicted in "conquer the crash" written in 2003 that massive deleveraging would cause the price of all assets (precious metals included) to fall. This now happening as many hedge funds etc. are winding up. Prechter also predicted the dollar would rise for the same reason people need them to repay banks. It all seems crazy to me, but it's happening as he predicted - clever guy clearly.

[sat69] 02/10/2008 18:44

Hose,

Good post - You may well prove to be right. Good luck

sat

[hosede] 02/10/2008 15:43

Sudden plunge today before bailout vote.
SAT my short is sufficiently small to ride out any rise. Even if the bailout goes thru it's only like putting a plaster on a gangrenous leg. The whole edifice is rotten to the core and the crunch will continue until (IMO) the whole cancerous idea of fiat money is destroyed and we get back to money based on gold or something else of which there is a finite supply. "You aint seen nothin yet"
EDIT 15.48 it looks like US investors realise this - the Dow is down 240 points even though the bailout looks likely to be passed, but the dollar is soaring and gold plummetting - none of it makes any sense - well not to me anyway

[sat69] 30/9/2008 17:00

Hose,

If the $700bn package goes through on Thursday (as expected), you'll wish you had closed your short earlier - just like Simon!

sat

[hosede] 30/9/2008 09:14

Any ideas about the extraordinary strength of these over the past 2 days - shorts being forced to close? I have a small short from around 900 that I am loathe to close as I couldn't reopen it now.

[sat69] 28/9/2008 10:39

Well thats £10 cracked. Wonder what is in store for Monday?

[kibes] 24/8/2008 12:33

Looks like we are going to have another go at cracking 1000p and then perhaps higher thereafter. Absolute nonsense of course but people are still buying the story it seems. A bit dangerous to open a short at the moment, I am still on the sidelines but as a firm non-believer with an eventual 400p target.

[kibes] 08/8/2008 19:02

'Admiral has seen significant evidence of price rises in the UK'. I find this impossible to believe. There is cut throat competition out there and their own website confused.com is dedicated to finding ever cheaper quotes creating a death spiral for insurance companies. My own car insurance cost has halved as a result. Price rises? In their dreams. And yes I don't like the look of ancillary income either and it actually forms the greater part of their profits.

[liquidkid] 08/8/2008 11:25

Speaking of Evil you have to go back to this Ancillary Income, he might have jumped the gun on identifing its weakness. The thing about Admiral is that it hasn't experienced a recession yet. In the nineties it was just a start up operating out of a shed in a back yard in Swansea and its growth since then has given it this high rated new industry type valuation.
These Ancillary products; Legal expenses,Personal accident,Breakdown,Car hire,instalment payment protection,policy administration fees and lead fees
"could be considered discretionary purchasing" Its just weather the consumer is going to be able to identify this as something that can be cut back
on. The insurance industry has been expert at concealing the true necessity of the specifics in their products. The average Joe is not able to or does not have the inclination to dig down and assess the merits of each policy, it's " I need car insurance and this is it." Even the comparison websites aren't up to speed on this. The current recession is only just starting to kick in and this particular area looks to have quite a long lag time.
As the recession really starts to bite and with people really looking carefully at the cost of running their cars I think that AI will come to light.

[slapdash] 08/8/2008 09:59

I wonder if evil is still short.. slap

[kibes] 07/8/2008 16:58

Phatprofit - yes we may not have seen the top yet but I think a pullback is likely and then perhaps a go at 1000p after that. Its all nonsense of course, I agree with your 12 month target of £4.

[phatprofit] 07/8/2008 15:39

kibes - i get the feeling there is still space for a 'peak' on this latest ascendency. Think £10 still looks possible after the recent 'good news'.

Good Luck

[kibes] 07/8/2008 10:14

Phatprofit - agree this looks very close to the top. Record profits, benign claims, CEO hardly has to run business due to wonderful staff etc etc. Could hardly get better could it? Buying volume now drying up after a good run. Looks time to get out before the plug is pulled in my opinion.

[phatprofit] 05/8/2008 12:27

Probably best to wait for a move towards £10 ........

[phatprofit] 30/7/2008 09:54

This is as good as it gets for this company.

Still looking to sell above £9 .................

12 month target - £4

P

[nicksoj] 30/7/2008 07:33

The sloth is dead !

[slapdash] 20/7/2008 22:55

overall this seems like a bearish chart to me... hitting new lows and apparent formation of a downwards triangle... I think some analysts have been pushing it hence the rapid rise... I don't think there is anything sustainable in it... analysts and tipsters don't alter the general direction the market wants to take a stock... we shall see...

Slap

[sat69] 20/7/2008 13:25

Heading back to 900p

[slapdash] 16/7/2008 19:44

Sat69 - you have to be careful.. these rumours might be spread by traders looking to exit... LOOK at Michells and Butler... continual rumours there but hte stock keeps on going down

Slap