4d Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[mr roper] 24/6/2022 17:10

Pe taking it private is an option

[nigelpm] 24/6/2022 17:08

Because they are running out of cash and have no options. The more I think about it and the US timing. Someone (perhaps a PE house) has tabled a low end bid - maybe 20p and they are going to have little option but to take it.

[mr roper] 24/6/2022 17:08

150p I think I saw wishful. The bod have remarkably engineered the company into a dead end where the only way out is either a) oxford finance take the lot and shareholders get screwed or b) there is a bid/ strategic investment.

Strange situation as they are hitting milestones with their single strains and producing some compelling results.

[andyr42] 24/6/2022 17:06

Why would they accept 30p? No chance.
Offer over 70p minimum which values the business at around £125m. Peanuts!

[mr roper] 24/6/2022 17:04

Yasx, always good to come across another who has sampled the Manini magic.

Was just thinking that the CFO here was sounding uncertain on the call about a capital markets day in October. Possibly never going to happen now.

Think Merck is the only way out now. Feel very sorry for the employees of 4d who must be wondering what’s going to happen to their jobs.

[nigelpm] 24/6/2022 17:02

I suspect that's where discussions are headed

[one_frankel] 24/6/2022 16:47

Rather pointless for 4D to license out 518 now Devon when its effectively the crux to the company, no...

[kcowe] 24/6/2022 16:42

Thought you would wait till funding anouncement ?

[nigelpm] 24/6/2022 16:35

It would certainly be a good reason to suspend the shares given the parties involved in that process.

[katsy] 24/6/2022 16:35

I hope Duncan has a shave before going to the job centre. Anyway, my fault for losing money here, £10 down to 15p. I have to remember the trend is your friend.

[nigelpm] 24/6/2022 16:34

I suspect that's it - debating over the terms - whether it's 5p, 10p, 15p or 30p though - won't get anywhere over that.

They'd obviously be devastated with that given their failure and loss of value.

Probably hopeful thinking on my part though.

[frrinvest] 24/6/2022 16:32

Mon. 7am announcement? I think point made about vaccine for Merck is a good one as it was disclosed a few days ago by DP that Merck already have the data and expect further news in autumn. If vaccine data is good and we know Keytruda partnership is not bad either then expect a low ball bid from Merck. Only a speculation but figure of 70p-110p wouldn't be unreasonable. Businesses valuation is different and not dependent on the current share price Hoping for a positive outcome for all. Good luck.

[yasx] 24/6/2022 16:29

Mr Roper,

The Tony Mannini shambles!! - in fairness, TM was never convincing, not even remotely so.

[nigelpm] 24/6/2022 16:28

Might be waiting till monday though - if a deal is being worked on in the background DD will take place over the weekend.

[yasx] 24/6/2022 16:28

Podium,

That is true except for the spanner that could be Merck, if they wanted to preserve their interest re 518. They would not benefit from Oxford securing the asset base. Other than that, Duncan looks like he has failed to plan at all - a clear case of not considering what was right under his nose. Even a ten year old would have, or should have, realised that they need to plan in advance given the need for cash and existential threats if they did not have sufficient cash, especially with a loan secured against the entire asset base.

If that is what has caused the suspension, then Duncan should never be allowed anywhere near the Board of a listed Co. in the future - nor his bag carrier that was on the interview with him, since he boats in his profile of a background in financial planning.

[nigelpm] 24/6/2022 16:27

I struggle to see why Oxford would pull the plug I really do - don't see that as sensible. An agreed upon discounted placing awaiting AGM confirmation is definitely a reasonable probability.

[podium] 24/6/2022 16:26

V11SLR- especially not on a Friday. Perhaps they held out for as long as they could. They can run off and hide behind the weekend, for now!

[devonlad] 24/6/2022 16:25

.... or he has decided to sell the family silver and licence out 518 to raise cash?

[v11slr] 24/6/2022 16:24

I'm not expecting anything back here. I've never had a good experience when a share has been suspended.

[yasx] 24/6/2022 16:23

DL,

You would certainly think so - I have been saying for many weeks on here that they should get on with the placing since the longer they leave it the worse the result - they had sufficient authority for an interim raise.

But, for whatever reason, Duncan decided not to opt for that (he should have done it with the 518 data release, the timing was favourable and he must have known a raise was essential). However, due to abject financial planning, he must have assumed one or more other options would be available but a few weeks ago they referred to partnerships as medium term options but that in the short term a fundraising by issuing more equity than they had authority for was the plan. Then came the absurd interview.

If it is Oxford utilising loan covenants since there is insufficient cash as deemed necessary by the covenants then it is essentially game over. If Merck wish to preserve their interest, then they might be offering a solution. For holders I hope it is the latter. But, if I am honest I am not certain at all but it does not look good. I would say it is 60/40 (and that is a wild speculative guess) that things won't end up well, but Merck as a solution is the only plausible alternative I can think of.

Will see.