1x Tsla Discussion Threads

[cfb2] 15/11/2024 15:55

blusteradjuster: EV tax credits were created to allow the legacy manufacturers to fund the R&D of their switch to EV cars. The government bent over backwards to make the EV credits advantageous to unionised car companies and they kept on dropping in changes to stop Telsa from being able to claim them or putting their cars into lower brackets. It's hardly Tesla's fault if GM's Mary Barra told the government they'd overtake Tesla in the EV market by 2021, no, 2023, no, wait, 2025...

[hosede] 15/11/2024 15:29

BU the loss of the tax credit is surely going to tilt people back towards ICEs

[blusteradjuster] 15/11/2024 15:05

Apparently DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) is looking at the merits of 'expired government spending programs'.

Istr NASA featuring.

NASA has lost its way somewhat but is Musk (CEO SpaceX) really impartial wrt their funding?

[blusteradjuster] 15/11/2024 15:02

Yep, Musk hates EV tax credits (effectively manufacturer R&D tax credits) ... only now that his company no longer requires them.

[cfb2] 15/11/2024 14:59

Loss of the £7,500 EV tax credit hurts competitors far more. It's creating an even bigger moat against the legacy manufacturers producing profitable EV cars.

For Tesla it levels the market and allows them to manufacture the cars and batteries in whichever country suits them.

[hosede] 14/11/2024 23:48

Rush into Tesla on Trump election starting to look a bit sick after first thing he says he will do is kill the $7500 consumer tax credit for EVS

[hosede] 12/11/2024 11:15

hpcg
Could be - it's very WILD out there! But Mom and pop punters probably don't underststand what "overbought" means. aS Mr. P says they always buy the most at the worst possible time

[hpcg] 12/11/2024 10:35

Very very overbought on the daily. Irrespective of any move even over weeks it is going to retrace for a few days. 310 sort of target.

[hosede] 12/11/2024 09:16

Excelsior
Yes it could do but it's a second (corrective) wave. if it were a fifth (motive) wave, wave 4 would have entered way into the territory of wave 1 which is not allowed by Elliotts rules. I suspect the advance will end somewhere around the 400 mark - but who knows exactly .

[excelsior] 12/11/2024 07:11

Good morning hosede:

Tesla's all time high 4/11/21 was $409.97, I see US indexes hitting all time highs.
Crypto too.

I think the momentum is there to set a new Tesla high, by year end

[hosede] 11/11/2024 21:43

Thanks Excelsior. I'm well aware that after an iffy few months thanks to Adolf I've been lucky enough to live in a golden era -
I wonder how much of this manic rise is due to short covering.. Jeff Huge has a target around 400!

[excelsior] 11/11/2024 19:23

hosede

"Happily, I will be leaving fairly soon."

Come on, be good to yourself... a glass half full can be a negative thing or positive, it is up to your mindset.

Kind thoughts from me

[hosede] 11/11/2024 17:21

Excelsior
As a chemist I know that we are certain to repeat the same mistakes. Mark Twain - much smarter than I - Said "History doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes"
However there is one new kid on the block - climate change :and the evidence so far is that it is accelerating at a dramatic rate. Whatever happens it is going damage the world economy more and more: so I see the long term future as bearish in the extreme. Happily I will be leaving fairly soon.

[hosede] 11/11/2024 16:56

Not really Excelsior. But as a bull or bear I've found it usually pays to take profits - particularly in these very unstable times. Also We've had fourteen year of Bull markets Don't you think it's time the Bears had their turn?

[excelsior] 11/11/2024 15:27

I am getting the feeling hosede, that when bulls make some money, they do not deserve it as they are unintelligent;

but if a bear such as yourself makes money then that proves your intelligence

Have I got that right?

[hosede] 11/11/2024 14:45

And the universe is the ultimate rule in not returning to the NORM as it will expand forever ;)
Not according to Brian Cox!
But I expect Tesla to come down to well below 50. It's not alone .Most US shares are 5-10 times overvalued.
You and the other bulls are all ignoring the fact that it's ALL based on DEBT and that debt either has to be repaid - or seviced as ever increasing interest rates.
Of course hyperinflation is another serious possibility - wipes out the debt and destroys the creditors. Sure Tesla would reach 100000+ but a loaf of bread would cost several hundred dollars in the morning - and more by evening

[cfb2] 11/11/2024 14:28

hosede: You keep on coming up with these gems from Benjamin Graham, who died in 1976 (around the time of Apple launching their first computer), and preface them with "Always remember" or some other comment that suggests it was etched in stone alongside the ten commandments.

1. Exponentially increasing earnings will result in a high P/E ratio. We've already discussed this around a month ago.
2. Eventually robotaxis will start to reach saturation, or other players will enter the market, and Tesla's P/E ratio will return to the 10-20 range, unless of course their robotics has a similar expansion causing another high P/E ratio.

And the universe is the ultimate rule in not returning to the NORM as it will expand forever ;)

[hosede] 11/11/2024 13:06

Always remember
1. Shares sell at 10-12 x historic earnings and /or 1 -1.2 x Book. That has been the NORM for centuries.
2. Everything returns to the NORM is perhps the most important rule in the universe

[excelsior] 11/11/2024 12:51

cfb2

You are correct. Cathie has recently said that her position in one of her funds was set at 10%, but it has grown to 15% so that is why she is constantly trimming

[cfb2] 11/11/2024 12:23

hosede: I think you're reading too much into Ark Invest's trades. They have to balance their portfolio.

montyhedge: I weep crocodile tears for Bill Gates, who I believe still has a multi-billion short position on Tesla. A few months ago Musk warned Gates he'd be obliterated if he kept the short on.

[montyhedge] 11/11/2024 12:06

Shorts have loss a absolute fortune.

[hosede] 11/11/2024 11:35

Still roaring up - I'm keeping my neutral position: it's a question of trying to guess when the big holders like Cathy will decide to take profits. 76% reracementof the wave down to 113 would be ca 337

[excelsior] 09/11/2024 13:06

cfb2

Good point but until that happens...

[cfb2] 09/11/2024 12:56

excelsior: I agree there is an enormous benefit to having Elon Musk inside the White House. I also think it is likely Donald will dump him the moment it is to his advantage. Having two narcissists in close proximity just doesn't work.

[cfb2] 09/11/2024 12:52

Tesla is outside Warren Buffett's area of expertise and he is a value investor. This style of investing promotes the "fag ends" of businesses as Warren calls them. Depending on the sector, trading around book value is frequently true.

Warren and Elon rarely seem to talk publicly about each other but I do remember him saying that Robotaxis would affect Geico. Incidentally, having an insurance business is one of the reasons Berkshire Hathaway runs with more cash than most investment funds. There is also more cash because of a reduction in Apple, which is sensible because Apple have now rung the last of Steve Job's brilliance and is only left with a pile of cash and Tim Cook's...err...management?!

You'll remember that Berkshire Hathaway's investment in Apple was not by Buffett himself but by his portfolio managers and only once they had the regular income with the iPhone and app store.