1x Tsla Discussion Threads

[excelsior] 09/11/2024 12:35

cfb2

"Comments by Jim Cramer about people "just wanting a piece of Elon" do concern me that the share price has got ahead of the fundamentals"

I think Jim Cramer is implying that Tesla now has their man on the inside of government (at the very top it seems) so a re-rating is in order

[hosede] 09/11/2024 12:05

CFb
I'm afraid you are dreaming!
Like all new Wonder ideas very little money is ever made because either
The dream turns out to be less wonderful than thought or
So many peope rush in to compete that there is very little profit for any of them.
Robotaxis will be just the same
We all know that the only people who made money from gold rushes were the ones who sold the picks and shovels - and of course the "good time" girls:-0
I have zero clout as an investor, but ask yourself why Warren Buffett - who probably has more than anyone - has more cash than ever before and shows NO interest here.
A reasonable price for this Co. would be just above book - where almost all Cos. trade in normal times

[cfb2] 09/11/2024 11:24

hosede: Your biggest concern with Tesla is actually its biggest strength: come next year, or the year after, people will not need to buy a car as robotaxis will bring the cost per mile down sufficiently to make it unnecessary.

Comments by Jim Cramer about people "just wanting a piece of Elon" do concern me that the share price has got ahead of the fundamentals but another South Sea bubble it isn't. I agree it has a "fear of missing out" about it. However, if Tesla launch a robotaxi service before the next market correction I believe the price should hold up well.

I am not going to comment on these short term share price movements will end up because we both know that market exuberance often outlasts expectations, especially when in this case it is being driven by an election result.

[hosede] 09/11/2024 10:49

Cfb
We are heading into Winter and less and less people will be able to afford to own a car. As I've said many times on this thread, there are Far too many car makers in the world and there will be a massive contraction. In general, They don't actually go bust - they merge but the effect is much the same: massively reduced output and huge labour lay-offs. I agree about GM but I suspect Germany will bear the brunt.
Meanwhile TSLA is looking like the new South Sea Company

[cfb2] 08/11/2024 20:42

Uber's Market cap is ~$150B and their profit per mile is nothing compared to what Tesla will achieve. Putting Uber out of business is just the start of it. Waymo has realised they'll be priced out by Tesla, hence my post 11090 about them reducing the cost of their driverless vehicles.

For profits to justify the share price and beyond you need to take the existing car business, energy business and then add in the robotaxi business, which the mainstream analysts are just starting to do.

On a slightly different subject, I wonder how amenable Trump will be to GM asking for another bailout after their unions have priced themselves out of the car industry?

[hosede] 08/11/2024 19:15

As long as you get out witth your profit. This Company will never make profits to justify the current SP

[simon gordon] 08/11/2024 19:10

Congratulations to the bulls - you've called it brilliantly!!

[hosede] 08/11/2024 18:45

Going completely mad now - will it go to a new high? But I am buying the extended hours Cd to maintain a neutral position while the share price goes up

[hosede] 08/11/2024 16:49

Very small one - I was Short of 4k but took profits a while ago. Still a bit painful but it's just a mattter of sitting it out and decidng when to increase the short

[excelsior] 08/11/2024 16:31

Sorry hosede, I guess you are short

[hosede] 08/11/2024 16:21

But I think Trump will destroy The US. - The Herbert Hoover of the 21st century. You can't just go on borrowing for EVER. Moves to dethrone King dollar are underway among the Brics - though it may take some time
And what's he going to do with the 2m immigrants he plans to deport - dump then in the Pacific?

[excelsior] 08/11/2024 16:13

Good point, but so is Jim Cramers...a fascinating setup for the future!

[hosede] 08/11/2024 16:03

Yes but I can see Cathy selling in response - nothing like taking a good profit! She was selling all last wek (400k her biggest thats over $100m worth)
Other big holders may follow her example and trim their holdings

[excelsior] 08/11/2024 15:44

Jim Cramer said just before the market open that you can forget the PE people now just want a piece of Elon Musk, himself included

[hosede] 06/11/2024 13:38

At least Tesla seems to be able to make EVs profitably unlike any other manufactuers outside China. But I see an Orwellian nightmare ahead of us (K winter if you like).
I simply don't see where Tesla is going to make the vast revenues implicit in the share price Too many people (IMO) are simply projecting the past into the future and I don't think it will be like that.
Look at the the recent hurricanes and the floods in Spain (and elsewhere in Europe previously) and as John Donne said " Never ask for whom the bell tolls"
I'm sure our turn will come. Thames Valley !!

[cfb2] 06/11/2024 12:45

Trump won't be good for anything apart from himself. I predict that if Musk gets to run this Department Of Government Efficiency they will quickly fall out.

And if he does run the department, won't there be a conflict of interest? Musk will want to upend all the government departments his companies are involved in.

Tesla benefits from tariffs and rebates but they are capable of running without them. Musk is on record saying that he'd prefer tariffs didn't exist.

With a majority in the senate this next presidential term is going to be hell for anyone that has stood against Trump as his first order of business will be retribution.

[hosede] 06/11/2024 12:31

Not so sure Trump will be that good for Tesla. Chinese tariffs and I can see rebates on EVs being kicked into touch

[hosede] 05/11/2024 14:43

Not going to make a $25,000 Driver car . So as you said earlier not seeing itself as a car maker.

[cfb2] 05/11/2024 11:09

Harris winning will have a detrimental effect on all of Musk's businesses. Anything requiring regulation will hit buffers:

SpaceX: FAA and Fish and Wildlife already seem to be slowing them down. Removing funding from SpaceX for high speed networking was worst case of government interference I've ever seen. NASA, Military and security are working in Musk's favour so far.

Neurolink: FDA seems to still be governed by science but this may change.

Tesla: NHTSA definitely used to be biased against Tesla with Missy Cummings having a major shareholding in a Lidar company and eventually having to recuse herself.

Self driving will be on a state by state basis and whilst Texas may be favourable places like California, where everyone else is playing with their Robotaxis, will not be so welcoming.

I do wonder whether this alignment with Trump has been to allow Tesla to align with the Rednecks. Previously Tesla only used to sell to tree huggers and Democrats but having flipped to Republican they are now selling Cybertrucks to them. Could it be that simple?

[hosede] 04/11/2024 23:29

My recommendation of the Big picture was nothing to do with the Election I guess he was bound to comment on it, I liked the comparable charts of the South Sea Company and Super Microcomputer - I actually pay a small amount to read the whole of it. The free bit is just a "come on"
but I agree with you about the polls and have a feeling Harris will win because she isn't Donald Trump
We will see in less than 36 hours -
Whoever wins the start of the K Winter will not be long delayed

[cfb2] 04/11/2024 19:19

hosede: I read through the article you pointed me at, which contained various stories I already knew, all wrapped up into an easy to digest article.

There are various fallacies in the conclusions within the article due to misleading context.

For example, Trump is winning over Harris in the polls because all the legitimate polling companies have stopped. The Republican party is commissioning polls, which by some strange coincidence, shows Trump ahead of Harris in all the states where she was previously ahead. I assume the reason the Republicans are doing this is so that they can claim the results do not correlate with the polling data if they lose.

Go and look at the raw 538 polling data website:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/


You'll see all the recent polls have a small red diamond against them or are paid for by right wing political institutions.

Articles are mostly FREE and worth every penny you pay for them.

[hosede] 04/11/2024 15:25

CFb
Do you read " Huge Insights"? The Big Picture

I can thoroughly recommend him. I think he's very astute and I find him very easy to read. And Most of it is FREE.

[cfb2] 04/11/2024 12:33

Waymo's research saying they should adopt end to end neural networks and drop Lidar and radar in favour of just optics:


The problems it highlights as requiring further research are areas that Tesla has already solved.

Funny how analysts think Waymo is closer to solving robotaxis than Tesla especially as this approach requires vast amounts of video training data. Waymo has < 0.1% of Tesla's video data.

[hosede] 02/11/2024 13:01

Make of this what you will

[hosede] 01/11/2024 11:09

Cathy busy selling some every day this week. - 280k so far - I think she has at last got the message that even if Robotaxis do take off, Tesla will have plenty of competitors.