1x Tsla Discussion Threads

[hosede] 12/10/2024 08:35

Yes - as I've said on here before it could become a schoolboy prank to stop an unoccuupied robotaxi and paint or tape over the cameras. I assume you can't do that with Lidar

[hpcg] 12/10/2024 06:17

That too, but Tesla shareholders have known and not cared about that for a long time.

[roguetraderuk] 11/10/2024 19:16

tesla is camera based while just about everyone else apart from the chinese (i wonder why that is lol) uses lidar which is based on sensors. there are plenty of non biased opinions and tests on both and its clear which one is the more advance system.

[hpcg] 11/10/2024 11:44

Musk specifically mentioned cost of a bus per mile, and emphasised he meant that and not the fare. He was trying to argue, gain explicitly, that cybercab would be a mass transit solution. Mass transit is the Jubilee line for large parts of the day where trains are every 60-90 seconds and carry 950 people. He doesn't have a solution to traffic jams; the Boring Company was an attempt to pre-empt that but is just woeful, and would still be with automated traction.

R.e. the cabin, I meant the 2 person capacity. I would have thought with no steering consul 4 people with some luggage space would be more appropriate. It looks a bit designed for US ex-East Coast commuter traffic.

r.e. being reliant on bus stops, we will hear more and more about active travel. The car is terrible for health, walking around a bit is a vast improvement. We no know that sitting down too much whether that is in a car or otherwise, is terrible for the body, bone density, muscle mass etc. I am rather encouraged by Lime Bikes (or equivalent) as a people moving system. They wouldn't work with the long commutes and sprawling suburbs of the new US cities though. In that sense, as I mentioned there will be a big divergence between modern cities in the US and East Asia compared with older cities not built around the car.

The bigger question is do they actually work effectively autonomously. Without any inside information I have to say that can only be demonstrated by being demonstrated.

[roguetraderuk] 11/10/2024 11:28

tesla autonymous has a big problem. its camera based with apparently some ai? in there. the others, such as waymo from google, which has hundreds ten of thousands or rides already is lidar, or sensor, based. its easier with lidar to achieve a high enough safety rating to pass it for use. tesla is way behind waymo here.

[simon gordon] 11/10/2024 11:28

I read one comment yesterday that if you are doing a presentation in the dark you are hiding more than you are showing.

[hosede] 11/10/2024 11:23

But what happens if it gets stuck? If you can't have a driver hop in and sort it?
Looks like a non- starter to me. The market clearly not impressed

[cfb2] 11/10/2024 11:09

I thought the event was high on glitz but low on information. Tesla shares appear to be tanking so the market wasn't impressed and/or they are reacting to an under performing quarter.

I've only watched highlights but I didn't see any mention of a $30,000 drivable vehicle, this will also have disappointed the market.

I saw Trump tweeted a message just before the event saying how he wouldn't allow autonomous vehicles as he thought people didn't want them. How about that for stabbing Musk in the back!

Responding to some of hpcg's points:

1. For an adult with current prices, bus hopper fares are £1.75p for as far as you can travel in 1 hour. With a bus and tram discount you can pay £0.85p, which I think is the cheapest. However, these are taking you on a route that the bus wants to go on rather than the most direct. The stops are where Tfl want them and when Tfl want them. If the route is popular then you might need to wait for multiple buses.

3. There are YT videos of robotaxi rides and the cabin looks quite large without the steering wheel, glove box etc. The leg room would easily accommodate a tall adult.

5. I agree that overnight there will be many unused vehicles, although parking would no longer be on the streets outside people's homes as they would need to return to their inductive charging homes. Part of the argument being made was that vehicle ownership would fall as cars are only currently used for 10% of the time and these robotaxis would be continually in use. Reality is much more complex but a nice dream...

I thought the Cybervan was more interesting. When combined with Optimus it is obviously intended as a delivery vehicle. A reliable postal and delivery service would upset a number of companies.

[hpcg] 11/10/2024 07:19

I'm not sure what to make of the Cybercab presentation.

1. His bus figures are an order of magnitude out. London buses cost about $0.8 per hour, which I would guess is about $0.08 per mile. And that's for multiple people. Source

2. Inductive charging makes sense from a hands free point of view, but it is lossy compared with a cable. Even a 5% difference is significant:

3. The cabin is really small.

4. Agreed that taking out all the driver equipment is a big win in terms of cost.

5. Car parks are an extreme waste of space, but autonomous cars need to go somewhere, especially at night. Just the same as now. We certainly wouldn't need the same number of cars. Owning a car is an extremely costly life choice and people would be a lot better off financially without them. That said, there remains the peak period problem, common to transport, power generation, school holiday vacations and so forth.

Not coming to Europe any time soon anyway, where road infrastructure and behaviour is very different from the US.

[cfb2] 10/10/2024 18:50

hosede: There are many more feed-back loops to come too. Maybe this is one of the great filters of the Fermi paradox?

[hosede] 10/10/2024 16:29

Cfb
Fair enough I did say it was worst case scenario: but it's beginning to look as if the world may soon be a dead end. I'm afraid Carbon neutral by 1950 might have saved us, but one Climate Organisation identified 28 different warming feed-back loops!

[cfb2] 10/10/2024 14:20

hosede: As we're on a Tesla thread and I know a fair amount about their cars, the figures are a bit better (90% efficient with long range dual motor getting 95%). If you include all EVs your figures might be closer.

I've done some calculations using your 40% coal power station and the best Tesla EV gets 32.4% and worst 26.7%. Tesla cars heat their batteries to improve the charging efficiency.

Wikipedia says most ICE vehicles are 20%-40% efficient with maximum modern petrol of 50% at the cost of higher wear and emissions.

As we've included charging for EV vehicles, a fair comparison would include refining the petrol and shipping it to petrol stations for ICE vehicles.

So taking the most inefficient and polluting source of energy for an EV and comparing it to an ICE they are similar but this is the worst an EV vehicle can be. In addition the pollution of the EV vehicle is mostly at source rather than where the car is (I'm ignoring particulates from the read surfaces and tyres because they are similar between technologies). If carbon capture technology ever happens you'll want to do this per power station not per car!

EVs have the potential for using renewables, ICE vehicles are a dead end.

[hosede] 08/10/2024 14:50

cfb
I dragged a few figures about EVs from the internet - so they may not be fully correct.
! EVs are non polluting - this surely is their greatest positive - particularly in urban areas.
2. EVs are ca 70% efficient as opposed to 40% for ICEs.
3. But the power has to come from somewhere, and in the absence of unlimited green energy, powerstations are about 40% efficient, ca 2% can be lost in transmission and battery charging may be as low as 70% efficient.
Taking the worst of those figures, EVS are less than 20% efficient- much worse than ICEs

[hosede] 26/9/2024 14:36

cfb
Well I'm afraid that (like the Pacific if you can remember Fred Astaire) it's turning out that they're not all that they're cracked up to be!

[cfb2] 26/9/2024 11:58

The anti-EV press is out in force this week. Almost like it is being orchestrated, which it is. You only have to look at where the non EV car manufacturers are advertising.

[hosede] 26/9/2024 10:10

People seem to be expecting huge Tesla sales in Q3. China maybe doing fine but in Europe they appear to be tanking
Times also had something today - but I don't have access

[dominiccummings] 21/9/2024 21:27

What complete nonsense....

[hosede] 21/9/2024 13:59

Given that all the evidence suggests that Global warming is self-enhancing, and will inevitably result in a massive fall in our overall standard of living, I really don't think that long range EVs are the way forward

[hosede] 20/9/2024 13:13

Dominic
But only a few can afford them.
hpcg
I'm guessing margins in China are lower - but on the other hand Chinese costs are presumeably lower as well

[dominiccummings] 20/9/2024 09:47

Ask yourself if you are seeing more Teslas on the road today and every day? The evidence is overwhelming. People like Teslas.

[hpcg] 20/9/2024 08:12

Tesla sales in China were reported as doing well a few weeks ago. The chances of Harris winning in November are creeping up, and that might also be driving the market. It doesn't matter, one has to respect the chart in both directions and trade accordingly.

[hosede] 19/9/2024 22:22

Reports in the Times and elsewhere suggest EV sales are plumetting everywhere (except China perhas). Yet Tesla's share are soaring. Wing and a prayer perhaps

[cfb2] 19/9/2024 11:00

Wheel hub motors have energy efficiency gains with an EV as they are directly coupled with the wheels but the stresses on them are not dampened by the car's suspension, which means a shorter lifespan.

Each wheel is directly driven from a motor but there is a problem creating sufficient torque, which requires gearing to fix which negates the original advantages. BMW seem to think they've solved this problem by putting the gearing in the axis of rotation.

Anyway, each wheel needs it's own motor so I suspect this technology might appear in high end or off-road vehicles. I suspect the direct coupling may give efficiency advantages in regenerative breaking too but I haven't read any articles to back that up.

This is a youtube video discussing pros and cons: