1x Tsla Discussion Threads

[simon gordon] 31/10/2024 19:07

"Your occasional reminder that Hyundai Motors(005380 KS), which owns Boston Dynamics (actual autonomous robots), and is testing a Level 4 autonomous driving system, trades at 1x revenues and 8x EBITDA. This would value $TSLA at $30 to $50 per share."

-James Chanos, 31/10/24.

[hosede] 28/10/2024 17:36

We will see when "Argentinification" of the US occurs, but at the moment Europe is looking like it could be the first domino to fall - just like last time :-0 (VW closing three factories)

[dominiccummings] 28/10/2024 16:56

It is logic that has been proven to be dated by the likes of the list above, and in addition Tesla and one or two others.

[hosede] 28/10/2024 16:49

Dominic
I suggest you read the article which explains it

[dominiccummings] 28/10/2024 16:20

He can still be wrong, even if dead.

[hosede] 28/10/2024 11:54

Ben died long before any of the above were even heard of. Anyway lets see where they are in a few years time.

[dominiccummings] 28/10/2024 10:07

What even for Google, Apple, Microsoft,.....

[hosede] 27/10/2024 22:56

Never pay more than 25 x earnings or 1.3 x book value

[hosede] 26/10/2024 12:16

Cfb
The House of Lords are challenging the cut in Winter fuel payments. This cuts to the whole essence of Tytler's thesis. Once you have given something away it's well nigh impossible to take it back

[hosede] 25/10/2024 12:56

That's what the papers are saying - but without the cars it's basically a loss-making start up

[cfb2] 25/10/2024 12:29

It's almost like the market is no longer valuing Tesla as just a car manufacturer.

[hosede] 25/10/2024 11:20

Teslas 150m gain yesterday was more than the value of Ford GM and Stellantis combined - LOL

[cfb2] 24/10/2024 20:44

hosede: Removal of the winter allowance and a sharp cold spell should kill off those circling the drain. Socialism is all about having a strong work force so the government can spend their money until it runs out.

[blusteradjuster] 24/10/2024 18:23

China won’t need to continue the subsidies.

Costs are coming down and eventually subsidies will no longer be required.

It’s a simple concept.

[cfb2] 24/10/2024 17:51

OK, I had to look up on your Tytler's democracy cycle. It's theoretical and an attempt to put names against eras of a democracy. There's a good argument we could be in the "selfishness" or "Complacency" phases rather than headed for the "bondage" phase. There is a pretty good chance it's BS. Anyway, I won't be aiming to buy my whips and gimp uniform just yet!

Solving world debt is above my pay grade.

Tesla appear to be bucking the trend, other manufacturers are seeing a downward trend, some with double digit percentage decreases like Stellantis. Musk predicted 20% to 30% growth in sales on the earnings call, conditional on interest rates.

As we're discussing theories, my current one is that all the legacy auto manufacturers are rapidly heading for bankruptcy or bailout with the possible exception of Ford. I think Ford might just escape due to the good stewardship of Jim Farley.

[hosede] 24/10/2024 16:36

Yes the cost savings are impressive - but EVs are way out of favour on this side of the Atlantic: and how long can China keep up these huge subsidies?
World debt is spiralling - and no-one seems to have any idea of how to reverse that.
In the Tytler democracy cycle we seem to moving from apathy into dependence: servitude follows

[cfb2] 24/10/2024 15:16

$0.72 earnings Q3 with 19.8% margins beating predicted 16.8%. Impressive cost savings on production.
Cybertruck already profitable. Battery production and energy business doing extremely well.
There is a fair amount of optimism in the share price over robotaxis. Does it justify the high p/e? We'll find out next year.

[hosede] 23/10/2024 21:56

Certainly done OK, but it looks like making between $2 and 2.50 this year.
100 x earnings is Ludicrous for any company - particularly when we are headed into the biggest depression in 300years. Ford and GM are on PEs of 5 and 6

[blusteradjuster] 23/10/2024 20:59

Product mix will obviously have some effect but COGS per vehicle has tracked downwards.

Q3 2022 - $39,400
Q3 2023 - $37,500
Q3 2024 - $35,100

Adjust for inflation and that’s even more impressive - though not surprising for what is essentially technology hardware.

Goldmans forecasting ICE cost parity in 2026 - probably echoes Tony Seba’s long-term prediction.

[hosede] 20/10/2024 13:36

Of course - and I suspect that with our amazing ingenuity, humans will continue to live on Earth: But numbers will be a tiny and life will be nothing like it is today

[dominiccummings] 19/10/2024 13:56

... and still yet, life followed the Permian extinction...

[hosede] 18/10/2024 17:45

Good luck Dominic - I shall be long gone, but I suspect that by the end of this century or maybe the next, there will be very little life on Earth except Plants. failure of the Conveyor which is already showing serious weakening would kill off everything in the sea - including of course the phyoplancton that create ca 50 of our oxygen.
Like everything here it's all happened before (Permian extinction)

[dominiccummings] 18/10/2024 11:11

We don't HAVE TO adapt so far.

[hosede] 17/10/2024 20:06

But we aren't adapting are we? We are too greedy