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Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Senate Approves Trump’s Fiscal Bill; ADP Jobs Report in Focus as Markets React

Fiona Craig
Market News
02 July 2025 10:11AM

U.S. stock futures climbed Wednesday following the Senate’s approval of a major fiscal package championed by President Donald Trump. The bill now moves to the House of Representatives, where Republicans face a tight deadline to pass it before sending it to Trump for signing into law. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting fresh data on private payrolls to better understand the health of the U.S. labor market.

Futures Gain Ground

By early Wednesday morning, U.S. stock futures were modestly higher, with Dow futures up 127 points (0.3%), S&P 500 futures rising 17 points (0.3%), and Nasdaq 100 futures increasing 56 points (0.2%). Investors are weighing the impact of the Senate’s recently passed tax cut and spending bill, as well as developments related to interest rates and trade tariffs.

The previous trading session saw mixed performances across the major indexes, with investors digesting stronger-than-expected hiring data and a less severe contraction in manufacturing activity.

House Prepares to Vote on Senate’s Version

The Senate’s narrow approval now sends the comprehensive fiscal package, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” to the House. Lawmakers there are expected to take up the legislation this week, with a self-imposed July 4 deadline to get it to the President’s desk. However, some conservative Republicans have voiced concerns about the bill’s fiscal impact.

The package extends the 2017 tax cuts, introduces additional tax reductions, and boosts spending on defense and border security, projected to increase the national debt by more than $3 trillion. Despite this, Treasury markets have reacted calmly, buoyed by expectations the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates soon, according to analysts at ING.

ADP Employment Data in Spotlight

All eyes are on the ADP National Employment Report due Wednesday, which offers a preview of private sector job growth. Economists forecast a rise to 99,000 new jobs in June, improving from just 37,000 the previous month.

Recent data showed job openings ticked higher in May even as hiring slowed, hinting at a cooling labor market. The more comprehensive government nonfarm payrolls report, released Thursday, will provide further clarity.

The Federal Reserve continues to balance its dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and managing inflation, with officials adopting a cautious stance on future rate moves given uncertainties around the economic impact of tariffs.

Trump Signals Potential Deal with India Amid Tariff Deadline

Trade tensions remain in focus as the July 9 deadline for pausing reciprocal tariffs nears. While talks with several countries have been ongoing, few new deals have been finalized.

On Tuesday, President Trump suggested India may agree to a trade deal that would reduce tariffs and benefit U.S. companies ahead of the tariff deadline, which threatens a 26% levy on Indian goods.

“Right now, India doesn’t accept anybody in. I think India is going to do that, if they do that, we’re going to have a deal for less, much less tariffs,” Trump said. However, he also left open the possibility of not extending the deadline and simply notifying countries of their tariff rates.

Oil Prices Steady as Market Weighs Geopolitical and Inventory Data

Oil prices held steady Wednesday amid market reactions to progress toward an Israel-Hamas ceasefire and rising U.S. crude stockpiles ahead of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting.

At 03:32 ET, Brent crude futures ticked up 0.1% to $67.16 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures remained flat at $65.45 per barrel.

President Trump announced Tuesday evening that Israel had accepted the terms for a 60-day ceasefire with Hamas and urged the Palestinian group to agree as well.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude inventories increased by 680,000 barrels in the week ending June 27, following five weeks of significant declines. This build has raised questions about fuel demand during the busy summer travel season. Official inventory data is expected later Wednesday.

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