Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 07/5/2024 16:00

we could hit a fiver soon at this rate, lovely job...DYOR

[qs99] 06/5/2024 09:15

copper moving nicely again, should IMO assist ATYM...DYOR

[robmcelf2] 04/5/2024 18:41

Q1 financial results should be week after next if last year is anything to go by. Let's hope by then we get some good news about strategic project status for Touro..

[institutional investments] 30/4/2024 18:36

Pretty sure they took this on Q1 2020. One of them did anyway

[institutional investments] 30/4/2024 18:33

not a huge amount. 250K i think but still , always a punt when their buys come in

[institutional investments] 30/4/2024 18:32

Always get a decent lift after an iShares fund manager adds ones like these

[robmcelf2] 29/4/2024 20:03

I did some quick research and the cut off date for next FTsE250 mkt cap review is 24th May. So if after that date we are above cutoff we will be admitted.

[robmcelf2] 29/4/2024 19:01

You could well be right.

[theapiarist] 29/4/2024 17:33

Indeed, Rob. But I feel that today's rise is largely due to a 1.5% rise in Cu.

The bonus for admission to main market is yet to come on inclusion in FT250.

IMO.

[robmcelf2] 29/4/2024 17:19

Nice rise today with admission to main market.

[gobbie100] 29/4/2024 11:16

Agree, your calcs look reasonable and conservative and a good guide. Better than pie in the sky ramped numbers. Looks positive for the year and beyond. Thanks for doing the calc

[theapiarist] 29/4/2024 11:11

No.

Clearly there will be variations eg inflation, solar power, production etc.

As you can see from the calculations I made the conservative assumption that AISC remains the same.

Given the company's guidance on production remaining roughly the same and with inflation and solar cancelling one another to some extent, I don't believe this assumption will be too far wide of the mark.

NB. Copper briefly touched $4.60/lb this morning so, on that score, we are already ahead of my Q2 estimate.

[gobbie100] 29/4/2024 10:16

Did you factor in falling costs due to solar coming online

[theapiarist] 29/4/2024 09:51

And leveraged by possible extra production from Tuoro.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/4/2024 09:18

Nice margins, and before the solar farm brings our energy costs down too.. :o)

[theapiarist] 29/4/2024 09:11

Thanks Brockwl2.

Edit to my previous post:-

Q2 2024 (assuming similar AISC)

Current price of Cu = $4.56/Lb
Margin = $1.47/Lb
Increase in margin = 107%

[brockwl2] 29/4/2024 08:39

Your q2 margin should be 1.47/lb.

[theapiarist] 28/4/2024 13:16

Yes indeed. But not only for Q2 but for the FY2024.

My superficial take on the effect that increasing Cu prices may have on margin:-

FY 2023.

AISC = $3.09/Lb
Average price of Cu = $3.80/Lb
Margin = $0.71/Lb

Q2 2024 (assuming similar AISC)

Current price of Cu = $4.56/Lb
Margin = $1.37/Lb
Increase in margin = 93%

FY 2024 (assuming similar AISC)

Assuming average price of Cu $4.75/Lb -> Margin $1.66/Lb -> 134% increase
Assuming average price of Cu $5.00/Lb -> Margin $1.91/Lb -> 169% increase

Throw in potential extra production coming from Touro in 2025 and the Maths becomes even more compelling.

Is this fanciful thinking? I wouldn't bet on it.

[gekks] 26/4/2024 12:15

Very odd to be down when CU is pumping - our next qtr results should be stellar with current prices.

[estienne] 26/4/2024 12:05

Thanks. Is that why the price is dropping?

[wind dancer] 26/4/2024 11:12

Estienne
Monday 29/4

[qs99] 26/4/2024 10:27

How long before $5 is hit do we think?

Roll on main market listing & all that could/should bring! DYOR

[estienne] 26/4/2024 10:17

Is the Index change happening next week?

[wind dancer] 26/4/2024 09:14

Last day at AIM prices!