||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
Vernalis Share Discussion Threads
Showing 3301 to 3324 of 3325 messages
|@buywell3 What do you want, a medal?
June results, revenue from T XR and position on Moxatag, will decide this company's fate.|
|Big note out from Edison today, they seem to have moved back over 80p DCF value..........|
|I see this has dropped over 10p further since I posted
2 Nov '16 - 05:15 - 1489 of 1574 0 0 Edit
Do you guys realize that not all drugs that get FDA approval go on to sell in a way that makes the parent company any lolly ?|
|updated the 3 day chart in the header to a 10 day chart which I think is more useful to see recent prices|
|i thought so too. :-)|
|thanks for posting novandi - an interesting and comprehensive read - I've added the link to the end of the header|
|interesting read for those interested in VER:
|Market currently obsessed with central bank manoeuvres and nothing else, positive news released elsewhere e.g. GSK also largely being ignored.|
|that's what I was thinking, doesn't make a lot of sense really!|
|News of €2 million upfront payment from Servier largely ignored today|
|Somebody is building a stake, 400k bought this morning.|
|Unfortunately thin news flow until June may not provide the necessary interest needed to improve the share price beyond pre-update levels but there is the possibility of early resolution to the moxatag supply issue and further research milestones. Most other news expected H2.|
|Chunky buying today.|
|Some serious buying going on today!|
|I doubt there is more to fall, I expect the share price to gradually recover to same level as before the results, about 32p. The results raised more questions that answers as is so common on AIM but the company is in a decent financial position and has everything to play for still.|
|Support being sorely tested today. Having watched the webcast I was left wondering what Ian Garland was being paid for. He sounded to me like he'd just been pulled off the golf course. At least the CFO had a clue what was going on.|
|Think this stock has some way to fall in short term but is also good value for the long term. There are several opportunities for good news in the next 6 months with milestones being reached and final accounts.
For those asking the same question I was about sales growth disproportionate to revenue growth of Tuzistra XR. My thoughts from research:
There are 2 issues at play:
1)You can take the view the disproportionate growth is because Vernalis are giving it away. My thinking is management realised original price was uber-inflated and corrected by pricing at market value. Quick, crude math with Tuzistra Interim sales figures:
- £600k for 1976 prescriptions of cough medicine means VER expect revenue from a single prescription to generate a cool £300 - yes for cough meds, hi-tech cough med yes, but nonetheless.
- The recent interim result of £800k for 11,586 prescriptions would generate £70 per prescription. This is evidenced in two major price reductions since launch to help sales team shift volume
- The sales growth is not simply price driven, there has been an improvement in the sales setup with the operation having been rebooted. The previously bloated and under-performing sales team has been shredded to a leaner size with more experienced individuals. Also important to note, lessons learnt from this launch should benefit future product launches in the US.
- There are more factors (only half way through flu season being an obvious one), but with common sense and basic math one can surmise VER misdiagnosed the supply demand curve.
2)FDA approved Tuzistra XR and, a few months later approved competitor product Tuxarin ER (US version of keeping the game fair?). Ofcourse this placed downward pressure on Tuzistra sales and contributed to retail price discount. Both products are licensed for 18 years old and more. Interestingly, the FDA recently began disciplinary proceedings against Tuxarin manufacturer for failing to disclose this age requirement on its packaging/sales material. The manufacturer will likely be required to repackage all brand materials according to its license and pay a form of a fine.
This should be good news for VER which will probably be evidenced in full year report. Penalising a dishonest competitor should return significant market share which it deserves ... so long as, without a competitor, it doesn't fall into the greed trap and charge your average American $400 for cough medicine again.|
|I haven't watched the investor webcast yet, has anyone heard any certain explanation as to how prescriptions can rise 600% and yet revenue barely rise at all. Other than sales people giving the stuff away for free...|
|...and today was certainly a 'thin' day! could do with less of those; although good news could no doubt be transformational these biotechs all seem to be taking ages to deliver :-(|
|No net growth in value since mid 2014 and the 'new' strategy announced.The full season report on Tuzistra's performance must be seen as a key test of the board's turnaround to move into a tough US business sector, such as the prescription cough and cold market. Everything to play for but we don't want to be seen as yet another pipe dream play in the long British Biotech saga.Dr Fellner please note! We have stuck with you through thick and thin!|
|BTG has suffered a similar experience launching novel products into the US health sector.Learning the behaviour of the insurers and the incentives needed to gain acceptance by health professionals is a timely and costly exercise!The gradual reduction in codeine formulations over time is a further complication.Still at least the lessons being learned with Tuzistra can be helpful with the next two products and the final pair in 2018/9.A speedy agreement with the new owners of Suir is a must because FDA approval of the new production might be a formality, but it still has to be gone through.|
|It does suggest a lot of sales may have been through the affordable access route with revenue therefore delayed and/or reduced.|
|prescriptions increase six fold yet revenue generated goes from £600K to just £800K. Are they giving them away?|