Vernalis Share Discussion Threads

[bignads] 23/5/2018 11:22

Romeike - that's an opinion, but it looks as though its not shared by the market - there's a lot of interest in the narrative of Vernalis as a take-over target. We shall see.

[romeike] 23/5/2018 11:04

Twitter posters focusing on a market cap based on the 45 mil cash and citing this as 10p - but this was the cash position late last year, not the CURRENT cash position - and what really matters is the future cash position - by the time the US business wind down is complete and other running expenses taken into account this figure will be closer to 15m - 3p. Add in non cash and a lot of goodwill for any buyer, I think it could be about 8-12p, but Vernalis is in a very weak position re: any negotiation - with no reliable revenue stream and rapidly declining migraine treatment income their position gets even weaker as time goes on.

If they fail to find a buyer this summer they will reach a crisis point, seeing another decline in share price and then might be worth a speculative buy - but at 7p there are simply better options out there to invest in.

[bignads] 23/5/2018 10:57

Interesting wording of that tweet. It's highly likely that VER will find a buyer, and that the purchase price will be multiples of the current stock price.

[cudmore] 23/5/2018 10:09

Get what you can before any takeover RNS is dropped!!!

[cudmore] 23/5/2018 09:52

If this ‘takeover’ is true over on twitter then we will see this rocket!!

[nobbygnome] 23/5/2018 07:43

Thanks timbo

So do you think there is any chance Verona could buy VER out?

[timbo003] 22/5/2018 23:08

>>>Nobby see my Verona AGM notes, needless to say, the subject or Vernalis did come up:


Verona's cash balance at end of March was £72m which should be enough for them to complete POCs in their prototype DPI and MDI formulations and to get about half way through the COPD phase III program, although they might well receive cash injections beforehand, should they enter one or more partnerships for the commercialization of RPL554.

[nobbygnome] 22/5/2018 17:37

>>timbo

Is there any chance Verona could buy VER out of the deal, if the latter need a short term resolution? I have no idea how much money Verona have.

Nobby

[fhmktg] 22/5/2018 17:17

I wonder how this Verona data could affect the Vernalis outcome.RPL 554 still has phase III trials to go- another two years at least.

[cudmore] 22/5/2018 16:28

Get in on the dip!!!

[twodegrees] 22/5/2018 16:06

Verona Pharma Presented Clinical Data at ATS 2018 that Further Highlights RPL554 as a First-in-Class Treatment for COPD


Achieved statistically significant and clinically meaningful additional improvement in peak lung function and faster onset-of-action in COPD patients with RPL554 when added to tiotropium

LONDON, May 21, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Verona Pharma plc (AIM:VRP) (Nasdaq:VRNA) (“Verona Pharma” or “the Company”), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing innovative therapies for respiratory diseases, today presented Phase 2a and pharmacokinetic data from two clinical trials evaluating its lead product candidate, RPL554, in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) at the American Thoracic Society International Conference(ATS 2018), in San Diego. Results from these trials were previously reported by Verona Pharma on September 7, 2017 and September 27, 2017, respectively.


RPL554 is a first-in-class, inhaled, dual inhibitor of the enzymes phosphodiesterase 3 and 4 designed to have anti-inflammatory as well as bronchodilator properties, and is currently in development for the maintenance treatment of COPD and for the treatment of cystic fibrosis.

The poster, titled, “RPL554, A First-In-Class Dual PDE3/4 Inhibitor, Causes Rapid Additional Bronchodilation When Dosed with Tiotropium in COPD Patients,” provided a review of the positive data from Verona Pharma’s Phase 2a clinical trial, in which RPL554 was dosed in addition to tiotropium (Spiriva®), one of the most commonly used drugs to treat COPD. In summary, the data from this Phase 2a trial demonstrated significantly improved peak lung function when RPL554 was added to tiotropium in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD.

This was a double blind, placebo-controlled, three way cross-over trial in 30 subjects with COPD and included two different doses of RPL554, 1.5 mg and 6 mg, or placebo, dosed twice-daily for three days, in addition to tiotropium, a long-acting anti-muscarinic (LAMA) bronchodilator, dosed once-daily (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03028142). The primary outcome measures for the trial were peak forced expired volume in one second (FEV1) on the third day of dosing and the average FEV1 on the third day of dosing, representing measures of lung function and duration of effect. A number of secondary outcome measures were also recorded. Of note, the 6 mg dose of RPL554 achieved statistical significance, compared to placebo, on all primary and secondary outcome measures. The data confirmed dose dependency between the two RPL554 doses.

[romeike] 22/5/2018 15:39

It's on the back of a position taken by a health focused fund followed up by a bit of blatant pumping (and now dumping).

With the right actions and a good new CEO the company should eventually be able to settle at about 8-12p. I have doubts about them finding a buyer for the whole business at a decent price.

Postings on here re: 45mil in the bank and max share price etc. are way off the mark and display ignorance about the company's recent past. The fact is that by the end of summer it ought to have circa 15mil left after wind down costs etc. from the failed US business are accounted for. In my view there are unfortunately still some potentially serious risks, including legal problems and additional costs and write downs.

The interesting part of the company, as was ever the case, is computational biology, but this is an expensive unit that generates very wide ranging revenues that make it swing from loss to gain and back to loss each year and is very difficult to put a value on.

More positively, the company has no debt, but the new CEO is likely to need to raise cash and cut headcount/costs in order to execute a turnaround strategy. Vernalis is also most likely be loss making and fully dependent on unreliable milestone payments for income for the foreseeable future.

[nobbygnome] 22/5/2018 15:24

It's undervalued perhaps?

[djrhs] 22/5/2018 15:21

Why is the share price going up?

[the_fiddler] 22/5/2018 13:39

Quick thought - the company released a statement of finding share holder value including the full sale of the company. Could it be they have managed to strike a deal on the cards? The trades are pretty big at these levels. Just trying to read between the lines.

[the_fiddler] 22/5/2018 13:36

Im going to take a bit of the cherry here. Looks like a re-rate is on. This looks to break out towards 10p. If it breaks 10p, I think 14p 6 month high will go quickly.

Who knows thereafter but remember 5 year high is 80p!

MCAP is set to 35M and cash on the books is over 45M with no debt.....

Thanks for all the notes below.

[romeike] 22/5/2018 13:10

Pump and dump more like. No comment from company. Pure speculation.

Thanks for the easy grand (ish).

[cudmore] 22/5/2018 12:47

Anything under 10p will seem like peanuts in days to come. Mm’s getting shafted. Love it!!

[jayj4u] 22/5/2018 12:11

What did I say? this is just taking off! Get on the flight to Moon!!

[bignads] 22/5/2018 11:54

Yes, sorry, the auction went on so long I thought they'd suspended.

[bignads] 22/5/2018 11:54

Yes, sorry, the auction went on so long I thought they'd suspended.

[gersemi] 22/5/2018 11:44

Auction not suspension

[meijiman] 22/5/2018 11:42

Er that's what we don't need. That's usually based on 'no reason'.
Clearly anyone doing the sums here would find plenty of reasons why this is worth 10-15p quite easily and maybe more. Seems like the company is not going to help so it needs informed posters to work it out. Got to get the spending taps turned off first.

[bignads] 22/5/2018 11:41

Looks like share dealing has been suspended - its on its way...

[joeblogg2] 22/5/2018 11:40

Well timbo reckons its worth more than 15p and believe he has a got handle on bio valuations!!!