Vernalis Share Discussion Threads

[cudmore] 15/6/2018 09:07

Who would sell now?😂㈳4;😂

[cudmore] 14/6/2018 18:49

All looking good for a doubling of the current SP

[romeike] 14/6/2018 13:25

I don't doubt there have been multiple interests but I maintain that there is little interest in buying the whole business, we don't know for sure because they don't say, but the clues are there.

The downside of selling off the cherries is that something has to be done with the bits no one wants, including those parts that have liabilities or close down costs attached to them. Frankly a possible 10p is not exactly an exciting proposition when being asked to buy in at 6/7p, while knowing that the business is still commanded by a proven failure. And presumably Evercore will be paid quite the premium for their assistance.

Not saying that people can't make a few quid here, just saying there are much better opportunities out there.

[meijiman] 14/6/2018 12:07

I rather disagree romeike though you make some interesting points, and no one would make a case for management credibility here. The RNS today would have been carefully vetted by Evercore prior to release so is not about management making it up.There has been very solid interest from a number of parties. Also selling it off in bits might increase the total proceeds of sale. Reading between the lines some hard decisions have been made to turn off the spending taps. Still difficult to value but would expect closer to 10p. If all goes to plan maybe double that.

[jayj4u] 14/6/2018 08:48

PLEASE READ THE "FIRST SENTENCE".... I REST MY CASE!!! PAY ATTENTIONS OF buyerS!! remember what "S" means.... This is why i think we3 should close at 10p or above today!


The Company is pleased to confirm that it has received several approaches, directly and through potential buyers contacted by Evercore as financial adviser to the Company. Potential buyers wishing to participate in the formal sale process were required to sign a non-disclosure agreement, after which they received further information on the Company. Potential buyers then submitted non-binding proposals to Evercore for the Board's consideration which comprised expressions of interest for the Company as a whole as well as for parts of the Company.

[cudmore] 14/6/2018 08:42

Hardly any shares available here.....100% rise on the cards easily!

[qs99] 14/6/2018 08:42

The bit I like is that they have had interest in writing no? DYOR "Intial buyers then submitted non-binding proposals to Evercore for the Board's consideration which comprised expressions of interest for the Company as a whole as well as for parts of the Company. "

[cudmore] 14/6/2018 08:32

Great news here. Look at VAL too.....still huge deal to be announced there imminently. Will rocket 100% easily.....trust me!

[nobbygnome] 14/6/2018 08:18

Got to be worth more than £40 million IMHO. I can't make up my mind whether I would prefer a sale of the whole lot or in bits.

[chrisdgb] 14/6/2018 08:08

Still very hard to try to work out the value.......!

[timbo003] 14/6/2018 07:32

So cash balance is going to end up at £25m or thereabouts (5p/share) and there is a potential royalty stream to come from Tris if someone can make a success of it and that could become an unexpected, but useful income stream in the future. Plenty of interest in the rest of the business by the sounds of it too.

I will be very surprised if we don't have an up day today.

[compoundinge] 12/6/2018 08:25

Thanks for sharing Timbo. Good stuff. Is it possible to put a value on CPI-444 based on comparing its value with Corvus market value Cap of USD370Mil? And then extrapolate the milestones and royalties correspondingly? Does that make any sense or is it not really a good way to value from this perspective? Just an idea.

[timbo003] 12/6/2018 00:20

>>>>compoundinge

I suspect your guess is as good as mine regarding the value of CPI-444, but here is a very quick back of the envelope estimate with accompanying thoughts:


* Most new oncology drugs will be administered in combination with other oncology agents
* Corvex are teamed up with Roche/Genentech to look at a CPI 444 combined with Tecentriq in a number of oncology indications
* Roche are also looking at Tecentriq combos with a variety of other drugs
* Therefore assume that CPI-444 is combined with Tecentriq in 30% of cases
* Assume CPI-444 is reimbursed at 50% the price of Tecentriq (it’s a small small molecule not a biological so it will be cheaper)
* Peak annual sales for Tecentriq are estimated at $4Bn ( )
* Then peak sales annual for CPI-444 might be $600m and say $3Bn over life time of the product
* Assume 20% chance of success (it’s still early stage), so risk adjusted total sales might be $600m, then discount by 50% to take into account time factor and lost opportunity cost of money invested, which leaves $300m
* Assume a 6% royalty and that gives you $18m or £15m which is equivalent to 3p/ Vernalis share


There would also be some milestone payments along similar lines to RPL 554, so there could be another say £5m (risk adjusted £1m) but that would be chicken feed compared to the royalty income.

This is a complete guestimate. The number could be much higher if you were to assume that CPI-444 could enjoy similar success with the other two Check point inhibitors ( Merck's Keytruda and Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Opdivo) or the number could be much lower for a whole raft of reasons, for example, if it turns out there are better A2A receptor antagonists out there, or the royalty rate is much lower than 6%.

[nobbygnome] 11/6/2018 16:14

But the fact that the price has broken out from the long downtrend is part of the encouraging chart!

[bountyhunter] 11/6/2018 16:08

so long as you don't look too far back

[jayj4u] 11/6/2018 14:54

Picked up some more today!!! Chart looks great!!!

[meijiman] 11/6/2018 11:54

It is odd that investors are not getting any help from the company in terms of forming a valuation.

[compoundinge] 11/6/2018 11:43

In addition, noted that Corvus has 144Mil Cash@March, $377 Market Cap (CPI-444 main ingredient for development of several products), Verona Market Cap £160Mil (Cash 70Mil@March). Which suggest Corvus is in a position of strength to purchase CPI-444, assuming that the sale will be sold-off in parts which makes the most sense and likely to happen in my opinion to maximise value return to shareholders. Assuming worse case Vernalis Cash Pile recedes to 15mil by Sept + CPI444 + RPL554 = total value of Vernalis. Writing-off everything else to Zero. Would that be a fair assessment in your opinion?

[compoundinge] 11/6/2018 11:22

Hi Timbo, Thanks for sharing. Appreciate your comments. What do you think is a high, medium and "no-brainer" purchase valuation for CPI-444 and RPL554? Thanks

[timbo003] 10/6/2018 19:34

Corvus gave an update at the Jeffries Healthcare conference last week

Their lead compound, CPI-444, a selective inhibitor of the A2A receptor, is currently being evaluated in a multicenter Phase 1/1b clinical trial in patients with various solid tumors.

C PI-444 is in-licenced from Vernalis who are due to receive milestone payments and circa 7% royalty on sales.

There is a link to the Corvus presentation here:

[cudmore] 31/5/2018 15:53

Can’t believe anyone would be selling these right now with the takeover talks in full swing 🤔

[haroldthegreat] 31/5/2018 09:36

What codes are still in use ?Has Woodford retained his stake ?

[chrisdgb] 31/5/2018 09:24

All gone quiet.........................

[cudmore] 31/5/2018 09:13

The market is yet to wake up to this little gem! BUY and HOLD what you can as this is massively undervalued on the pending takeover talks.