Trinity Mirror Share Discussion Threads

[spoole5] 08/8/2016 17:16

Badly timed entry here at 92p. Priced to go bust, but have cash to throw around on share buybacks. Stop loss at 78p

[philjeans] 08/8/2016 08:16

Strong start again and miles to go!

BUY BUY BUY

DYOR NAI

!!

[freddie ferret] 05/8/2016 17:35

On examining the JPR results one thing screams out , that is the risk related to low margin.
Basically the share price is very very low hence the mkt capitalisation is very low, however revenue is very high. Therefore a small decline in revenue or a rise in costs will tip the thing into loss since current margins are small.
In the case of JPR low PE does not equate to high earnings just to a very very low share price

JPR is very high risk, if you think they can increase revenue and cut costs buy it, if the reverse steer clear.
TNI is a safer bet IMHO.

Check out the two charts since 1988 they tell a story.

All this is IMHO and DYOR no advice intended here.

[philjeans] 05/8/2016 08:47

Pushing on well now - not much doubt about which one has the most potential - JPR or TNI -is there?

Glad I got in at the bottom - a doubler by EOY I think.

[bc4] 04/8/2016 17:58

Well so will we then

[smicker] 04/8/2016 17:44

I dont know why they announced a buyback. Now the company selling can hold off a few days and get 20% more for their shares. They should have just bought them as and when the price fell to a certain value like Fyffes or Berkshire etc

[bc4] 04/8/2016 17:08

Strong finish to the day!

[philjeans] 04/8/2016 12:54

That's a bit more like it!

Miles to go now.

[philjeans] 04/8/2016 10:36

Yes - I think JPR is far more risky than TNI - the debt will need clearing faster than the pension deficit!

Happy to have bought again at the bottom and will sit patiently for a few months until common sense returns, earning 6% for my capital.

[salpara111] 04/8/2016 08:42

well Johnson press results were pretty ugly.
I still reckon there is value here but sector sentiment is really pretty negative so gains will probably difficult to come by.

[cjohn] 04/8/2016 08:36

The pension déficit is likely to go yet higher, as we may well see another cut in the base rate, post Brexit. And lending rates are likely to remain lower longer, given the unfortunate economic effects of Brexit. We are also likely to see a rise in inflation - weaker pound, more expensive exports
- which will also push up the peent valueoffuture pension liabilities.


The fact that some other companies have garganutan pension déficits does not mean TNI doesn't have to deal with the problem. TNI has already taken the obvious stps to reduce the present value of fture liabilites (ie shutting defined benefit schemes to new members; ahging to the most favourable measure of inflation) What is left is increasing contributions. This they are already going to do in tanm with the share buy backs. The sums involved, however, will not be sufficient to satisfy the trustees if there are further cus in the discount rate.


If you add the pensnion déficit to share Price and debt, and compare the resulting enterprise value to free cash flow, TNI doesn't look startlingly cheap.

Obviously, if there ws no pesnion déficit, TNI would be a very strong buy. But we have a declining business with pretty dire like-to-like revenue figures atttached to a comparatively huge set of pesnion assets and liabilities. Not positive that.

In my iew a very risky buy. As I hate risk, I'll leave this one to the braver investors on thsi board.

[rapier686] 03/8/2016 15:34

They're not buying them back particularly quickly. Yesterday they spent about £100k, at which rate it'll take 100 trading days to spend the £10m.

But that's just fine by me, no call to drive the price against themselves to the benefit of exiting shareholders.

[philjeans] 03/8/2016 15:00

Cheers Harry; and remember the directors want to see the share price higher too!

Performance payments; profit sharing; options etc

Bloody bargain here; not many quoted businesses available with these fundamentals, yield and P/E. Many with one of them, but lumbered by massive debts, or big losses.

TNI has a number of very attractive investment qualities, despite falling sales.

[harry_david] 03/8/2016 14:43

philjeans apart from the very good points you have made the upside réason for my continued buying is the growth in digital advertising. On my reckoning they now have the équal largest UK audience with dmgt and growing faster. The regional sites look to be real winners with local dominance. As an old time media man that rings my bell.

[fewdollarsmore] 03/8/2016 14:26

Ok so less free float but akin to a insti holding them would much prefer if canx that way the number is reduced making our piece of the the pie more valuable...

[philjeans] 03/8/2016 14:24

Good to see them buying back quickly - it will provide a floor under the share price if they mop up the surplus stock every day.

Sensible use of cash as the borrowings are now very modest and will be cleared in less than two years.

Save on the divi and reduce M/C in due course - I remember NXT doing this every day for years!

Highly profitable despite falling sales; P/E 2; good cash generation; overheads being reduced every year; digital operation going extremely well ; loss on abortive new paper a one-off loss which will not be in next year's figures; chart showing very oversold position.; finance costs falling quickly.

I'll keep adding at this price - yielding 6% plus.

[gfrae] 03/8/2016 13:00

They said the shares will be held in treasury,ie storage. No dividend is paid on them.

[mrx9000] 03/8/2016 11:00

I get the impression that they won't be cancelling them.

[fewdollarsmore] 03/8/2016 10:50

Shares are usually cancelled when a buy back is completed so they do not pay themselves a divi.My past experience with co's instigating a buy back is that it seems to keep the shares almost stagnant as but orders are placed at certain levels. Why don't they just do a deal with the institution that is selling that would make sense then normal market rules can commence..

[mrx9000] 03/8/2016 09:23

It hasn't yet as they have only bought 100 odd k. In this case a share buy back is good thinking in my view.

What happens with share buy backs in regard dividends, do they pay themselves a dividend - something I have never thought of before?

[salpara111] 03/8/2016 09:22

Saw that, unfortunately it has not done any good for the share price
I am always amazed at the number of times companies engage in buy backs only to see the share price drop considerably at a later date, it just seems like such a waste of money.
I cant see much downside risk here given the current valuation but equally I am always suspicious as to whether a buyback raises a share price I realise it increases eps but the market rarely seems to price that into the share price

[spot1034] 03/8/2016 07:22

They haven't wasted any time in starting the share buy back. 125,000 purchased yesterday at average 78.9p.

[freddie ferret] 02/8/2016 16:44

I have found that Morningstar run charts back to 1988, that's going back a fair bit.
TNI, JPR and BRAM charts are all worth looking at for 1988 to now IMHO.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 02/8/2016 13:58

Thanks so much for the info extrader

[philjeans] 02/8/2016 13:37

WAY too much worry about pension deficit!

See below for comment on the vast majority of FTSE companies with huge pension deficits - as long as the business is throwing off cash, they can deal with it!

TNI have reduced costs and improved efficiency every year for ages and will continue to strip out waste.

Yield will be nearly 7% at this silly price if final div also is increased by 5%.

So P/E 2 and highly profitable - what's not to like?





"Some of Britain’s largest companies are running retirement schemes with dangerously large deficits, a report has found.


A total of 17 firms in the FTSE 250 have pension plans that dwarf their stock market value and represent “a material risk to their sponsors”, the research shows.


Total disclosed pension liabilities of the 250 listed companies rose another £2bn last year to £73bn, with 21 schemes showing a deficit of more than £1bn.


FirstGroup, the travel operator, leads the way among the 17 companies identified in the report with schemes at risk.


FirstGroup’s liabilities of £4.6bn are almost four times more than the value of the business.


Others in the danger zone include Phoenix Group, Balfour Beatty, Rexam, Carillion, Stagecoach, Mitchells & Butlers, AMEC, Tate & Lyle, Serco and Cable & Wireless.

The analysis, by advisers JLT Employee Benefits, provides a further insight into the pension funding crisis facing many companies and a new era in which employees must come to terms with a less generous payout.

Employers are rushing to restructure costly schemes because they can no longer afford the defined-benefits “gold standard” retirement package, with pensions linked to earnings and employment.

Only 12 FTSE 250 companies are still providing service-linked benefits to a significant number of employees, but in the next 18 months JLT expects the majority of listed companies will have ditched them. Tesco has joined the growing number of companies limiting benefits to existing employees.

Tata Steel has reached agreement to close its scheme after a battle with employees. Manx Telecom has followed suit, while Morrisons, the supermarket group, has been talking to staff about the future of its scheme.

The deficit in the 12 remaining schemes with defined benefits almost doubled last year to £12bn, while Phoenix, with a £100m contribution, headed a list of 39 providing extra funding of £1.4bn to reduce deficits.

Six out of the 10 best funded schemes were run by financial services groups, a performance which JLT feels reflects their better understanding of pension risks and liabilities.

Only 37 companies have disclosed a pension surplus in their most recent accounts, against 104 running a deficit.

Charles Cowling, a JLT director, said defined-benefit pensions have become “too expensive, too risky, and among UK private-sector companies, are no longer part of HR strategies for employee recruitment and retention. Sadly, we expect that within 12 months virtually all defined-benefit pension provision in UK companies will have ceased.”