Trinity Mirror Share Discussion Threads

[mrx9000] 01/8/2016 07:14

Well I certainly wasn't expecting a share buyback of £10m. Slightly increased dividend. Debt is negligible now, in fact halved, generating real cash. Downside is increase in pension deficit which has increased somewhat. They could do what JP did with theirs and get it revalued.

Better than I anticipated...

[mrx9000] 31/7/2016 21:51

Looking at the discrepency with JPR and TNI, TNI could actually drop a bit tomorrow though, we'll see.

[spot1034] 31/7/2016 16:53

mrx9000 - there was an interim dividend of 2p last year and there doesn't seem to be any reason not to expect one this time, possibly with a modest increase. Not long to wait.

[extrader] 31/7/2016 15:33

Hi freddie and mrx9000,

From www.employeebenefits.co.uk/issues/march-online-2015/trinity-mirror-group-to-pay-36m-to-plug-pension-deficit/


Trinity Mirror Group to pay £36m to plug pension deficit
By Robert Crawford 4th March 2015

Trinity Mirror Group is to pay £36.2 million over the next three years to help plug its defined benefit (DB) pension scheme deficit.

The publishing organisation announced the funding arrangements in its Preliminary results report after the scheme’s deficit increased by £49 million last year to £301.2 million.

This reflected the impact of an increase in liabilities of £47.1 million and a fall in assets of £1.9 million.

It agreed the deficit funding arrangements for the period between 2015 and 2017 following the triennial valuations that took place on 31 December 2013 and were finalised at the end of last year.

During 2014, the organisation pre-paid £17 million of the contributions due in 2015 and 2016 because of its strong cash flows.

In December it pre-paid deficit funding contributions of £16.5 million in respect of 2015 and 0.5 million in respect of 2016.

Overall payments in 2014 amounted to £18.2 million.

Contributions due in 2015, 2016 and 2017 will be £19.7 million, £35.7 million and £36.2 million respectively with annual contributions thereafter of £36 million per year.

It has also agreed that because of the dividend payments, additional contributions at 50% of the excess would be paid if dividends in 2015 were above 5 pence per share.

Trinity Mirror Group’s next valuation date of the scheme will take place on 31 December 2016 and finalised by the end of 2017.

The organisation’s DB scheme closed to future accrual in 2010.

Its report stated: “The increase in liabilities has been driven by a further fall in the real discount rate of 0.40% from 1.05% to 0.65% partially offset by the payment of pensions and a reduction for buy-ouyts.

“The increase in the accounting pension deficit does not impact the agreed funding commitments.”

With interest rates still dropping, there's likely to be some increase in the deficit. But we won't find out the number (and any mitigating action) until some time late in 2017....

HTH and ATB

[mrx9000] 31/7/2016 11:17

Cheers Dazzaa.

Also TNI has a cracking dividend and one that was only restarted in 2015 I believe. Final div is May, hence this will attract some attention before then no doubt. No interim dividend but you never know.

Moving forward I should imagine TNI will clear its debt very shortly and then probably concentrate on growing and growing the digital side of the business, whilst paying down its pension deficit.

It could get its pension deficit revalued? Has it ever done that does anyone know?

[dazzaa] 31/7/2016 10:32

mrx good to see you here.

I've been missing your comments on the JP thread but I suppose we are all waiting for results.
This is the first time I have really read comments here and most are quite eloquent but the odd few seem to come from non share holders willing the demise of anything press related.
As said I now have bought into TM in the hope that that the market will soon realise that we are due some rerating but since I have bought that will mean the opposite.

[mrx9000] 31/7/2016 10:08

TNI in the last statement which was less than a month ago, stated that it is using its cash generation to reduce its small debt pile, this will be negligible now.

JPR also generates a lot of cash. It doesn't have a pension deficit to speak off, unlike TNI.

Looking at the figures if a company was looking at making an acquisition of TNI or JPR, I would choose JPR... it is on a fraction of its £50m EBITDA figure. A company taking it over could at present put a bid in for say an EBITDA multiple of only 1, which would equate to 50p, likely to get rejected, but alas, even an EBITDA multiple of x2 would be 100p.

Strange valuations...

My gut feeling is that we will see directors from both companies picking up shares next week.

[freddie ferret] 30/7/2016 14:38

Extrader.

Conclusions reached.
They are both irrationally cheap.
They are different from one another in many ways.

I believe both sps would be a lot higher if the companies were not producing left of center papers.
I believe there is a biase against hardcopy publishers, its all to do with that interweb thingy you see, its the in thing at the moment.
I believe it is possible that TNI may still have a hangover from Mirror Group MGN and Maxwell.

All that said these are still underpriced, both should have been lower two years ago than today IMHO.
TNI has reduced debt, while revenue is falling, margins have risen, online is getting bigger in absolute terms. The pension deficit is a matter that people seem unwilling to quantify thus it festers at the back of investors minds.
JPR is seeing rising sales of the I and rising advertising revenues.

All IMHO DYOR

[mrx9000] 29/7/2016 15:43

Both the valuation of TNI and JPR at present at quite odd. TNI pulls in bags of cash, pays a decent dividend now and is only going to get stronger. I see some good things ahead for both TNI and JPR and so do Gannett. Monetizing local news is happening and there is an insatiable demand for local news, the stats are there. Go onto a newsquest site now with an ad blocker turned on, you cannot view the site, you have to turn off your ad blocker, by doing so the company earns a bit extra. This is just one area. Incredible valuation at present and one that will get rectified very soon imo.

[extrader] 29/7/2016 12:59

Hi freddie,

I have been comparing this with JPR.
The I vs Mirror.
PEs, prospective PEs, divis or not and pension questions.

Interesting.

Care to share what conclusions you reached ?

There seems to be a bit of speculative interest in TNI today, interims due out next Monday.

ATB

[cjohn] 22/7/2016 10:10

Hi Fewdollarsmore,

You're right. This is a civilised thread. There's good stuff from many posters, including one or two with digital media exprience who are always worth listening to.

[spot1034] 22/7/2016 07:51

Interims due to be announced a week on Monday - August 1st.

[pvee] 21/7/2016 21:21

Just a bit of patience needed

[freddie ferret] 21/7/2016 19:34

I have been comparing this with JPR.
The I vs Mirror.
PEs, prospective PEs, divis or not and pension questions.

Interesting.

[karlos885] 20/7/2016 09:06

Hedging perhaps?!

[gfrae] 19/7/2016 20:06

The million dollar question!

[karlos885] 19/7/2016 19:44

Interesting point Harry, so why are they selling such a large amount onto the open market with a drip affect?! at this rate TNI will catch JPR!

[harry_david] 18/7/2016 17:05

They have been selling for months. The company told me that there has been a change of manager, the previous guy I think has retired due to ill health. The new broom think they know better and are intent on selling out, now down to about 17mil, not counting some on loan, from originally about 25 mil.
Like you I cannot understand their reporting which seems to jump about illogically, though the numbers are coming down.

[kazoom] 17/7/2016 23:12

Hi harry_david - where do you get the information that Aviva are selling in a big way?

I can't see anything directly that shows that.

[freddie ferret] 15/7/2016 17:37

Extrader.

Thanks for your reply to my rather heated post, I hold through a nominee.

I had the thourght of why not do a search under "pension" of this thread.



Quite a lot there

[extrader] 15/7/2016 17:19

Hi freddie,

As a shareholder, you should get/be able to access the AR.

hxxp://www.trinitymirror.com/documents/financial-reports/2016/ye-2015-presentation-master-final---company-website-1-.pdf

Page 15 sets out the then pension deficit, you'll be aware this is affected immediately by the discount rate, which may well have changed since AR date, even though the underlying obligations (actuarially derived) will only crystallize over time.

On the other hand, approx 40% of pension assets are shares, 40% are corporate bonds, gilts and cash and roughly 20% insurance policies (page 54)

HTH