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TRIN Trinity Exploration & Production Plc

42.50
0.50 (1.19%)
12 Apr 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Trinity Exploration & Production Plc LSE:TRIN London Ordinary Share GB00BN7CJ686 ORD USD0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.50 1.19% 42.50 127,037 08:00:01
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
41.00 44.00 42.50 41.00 42.50
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
  -
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
17:05:58 O 35,000 42.50 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
12/4/202420:52Trinity: OIL PRODUCER 20207,319
09/4/202420:11Trinity Exploration - bickering thread 20203,664
08/3/202116:06Trinity Going to 1p3
10/12/202021:46Trinity Exploration & Production 20188,953
02/4/201916:49Trinity Exploration & Production PLC6,470

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Trinity Exploration & Pr... (TRIN) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2024-04-12 16:05:5842.5035,00014,875.00O
2024-04-12 15:21:3742.7410,0004,274.00O
2024-04-12 14:55:2441.6520,0008,330.00O
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2024-04-12 11:13:0541.85700292.95O

Trinity Exploration & Pr... (TRIN) Top Chat Posts

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Posted at 07/4/2024 16:29 by aqc888
Question;

What stimulants could cause the share price to rise substantially and what are the odds of each?

Galeota bid from rival producers;
Share price effect - could see it rise to 150p

Farm out deal of Galeota- similar to above

Opportunistic bid from rival for whole company - should see share price rise to at least 100p

Oil discovery in BA - increase in production would cause share price coupled with high oil price to reset to a sensible level approaching 100p

Oil price maintains current level and first 15% distribution is made - skeptics will have to concede the share price needs to re rate or the dividend will be obscenely high. Share price will reach 60-80p.

Now what could cause the share price to fall?…

Slow further decline in bopd… this is already well factored into share price, minimal effect I’d say.


Jacobin confirmed as flop - already baked into share price.

My point being there are possibilities of substantial increases
Posted at 28/3/2024 21:43 by nocents
What Ab does is really his business and we should make our own minds up on evidence of our own. He is a great bringer of information , and hope at times, but when he and we are let down, we only have ourselves to fall back on.
Clearly the big holders must have been placated or the BOD would be out. They may well be out eventually if they screw up again. Most of them are fly-by-nights, but Jeremy has been there 7 years and climbed to CEO. It is not hard to see falure. I have known him one to one since refinancing in 2017, far longer than Ab. He is a decent guy. Decent guys get things wrong too.
Loss is relative. Ab has lost a huge amount, but relatively speaking, I have lost far far more. I once held over 4%, and can now not pay bills. It has become that dire. But I bought originally in 2013 at £1.47 ( £14.70 now). You can see the loss. I put out regular TR 1’s. I was fairly wealthy. So loss is relative.
Ab is not averse to action if called for. He is not stupid.
We all see value here. Huge asset value. But incompetence at the top. Not unheard of. If the Q1 and Full Year results do not include a shareholder return and short-medium term plan for shareholders, then the BOD should be replaced.And are likely to be.
Oil goes up but we are now at $75 AR price. SPT land. So it has to come down again to benefit Trin in Q2. Trin’s share price usually has more to do with volume than fundamentals though. Bruce disliked AIM for its myopia. Short-term profit and disinterest in the nature of the product!! He did many investor presentations and they were not interested in Trin as a producing business. He gave up doing them.
The BOD need to be under shareholder pressure ( the big guys) that or or they are placated by the plan given to date. If not placated by the AGM, they should not hide in the shadows. Shareholders have lost too much from a return to gung-ho drilling à la Eldorado 2014 $10m loss on dry well.
On good news, this will fly like a vertical drone. It is unlikely that there will be bad news, but it could just be lazy lifestyle plans, which are just as bad. I hope this will not be the case.
Trinity is worth well over £1.50 as it stands right now, let alone with Galeota or Buenos Ayres.
But we won’t know what they have learned from Jacobin ( apart from awareness of une certaine arrogance and awareness of an unforgiving market that they refuse to try to understand as usual). And nil communication. And Petrofac re. Galeota ? The list goes on.
They have done us and them much damage, and have a lot to live up to.
There are few shares around. Get it right and we will fly -only to be sold into of course so it will be short term. They need a stepped plan of cumulative and well-communicated positive newsflow. A first.
New business has predictably gone to Surinam , Venezuela and Guiana, and the govt.’s pledge that the oil would not stayin yhe ground 18 months ago was repeated rhetoric. They are languid and lazy with no electoral pressure and so business goes elsewhere.
No excuses. Just like in business.
Over to you Trin.
Posted at 29/2/2024 20:21 by andrewbyles
There are a number of ways in which Trinity needs to improve communication with shareholders, but they mainly concern how it deals with actual news. There’s no point in making a short statement about not very much just so that they can say they’ve issued a communication (if there’s no news, there’s no news).

Ways in which they could improve communications include:

1. It’s unlikely that no work has been carried out on Jacobin since the middle of January. It would have been helpful and still could be helpful if they put some little updates on Twitter and other social media. Things like a photograph showing the pump arriving or a note that a planning meeting took place to discuss a recompletion at the Forest level. The sort of thing that reminds us that they are at work trying to boost production, profits and the share price.

2. When there is substantial news, they need to make the most of it. Over the coming month we can expect the announcement that the Buenos Ayres licence has been formally granted (it’s disappointing that the government still insists on doing things so slowly - at the recent Energy Conference the PM lamented the culture of “not doing anything on Monday if it can be done on Friday, and not doing anything on Friday because it can be done on Monday”). They could just announce that, which wouldn’t tell us much that we don’t already know (although the licence isn’t certain until granted, so it will be something). However, a few more months of planning will have gone into Buenos Ayres since they last mentioned it. They may have better ideas about where they’re going to drill first, how long it’ll take, what they hope to find, what the chances are, what the cost is and how things are going to be structured (BA may be able to take advantage of some of the enormous tax losses). Using the licence announcement to provide us with as much of that detail as possible provides an opportunity to boost confidence and the share price.

3. They need to set out a clear vision for expanding the business. They’re on the back foot at the moment as 2023 was supposed to be our year, as was in many ways 2022 (the Galeota farm out was due and drilling was planned to resume earlier in the year than it did). This can’t be done overnight and we may have to wait to the Final Results, but they need to explain in detail what happened with Jacobin and what’s been learned. They need to explain how growth is going to be financed. At the moment, borrowing money and spending all of the cash is unlikely to boost confidence (something that’s unlikely to change even if new or additional directors were appointed).

The fall in Trinity’s share price since 2022 and its performance since 2016 (it’s below the 2016 fundraising of 49.8p and well below the 2018 fundraising of 150p) is appalling. If you think the large shareholders are nonchalant about this, I suspect that you’re very much mistaken. I’ve had meeting with the directors and made my views known, and I’m sure those with larger holdings (and larger losses) have done and are doing the same.
Posted at 29/2/2024 10:49 by nocents
The difficulty now is the return to lack of communication. We should hear Q1results in April and FY in May. But the absolutely laughable share price reflects lack of confidence in management decisions and what they promise. Why are we not updated re. the pump or the Jacobin upper strata testing for production? I am not sure that change of management is the panacea. It may be. I don’t know. No matter what we do, we can’t seem to get them to communicate on a real-time basis though.
I have emailed Vigo, but even this never used to happen!! Trinity would answer emails personally. This hands-off approach is pure defensiveness.
I think sinking back to 40p just brings out the grinch. Trinity’s slump( after personal massive losses in 4D and Ncyt) have changed life this end dramatically.
Jacobin was sold in a great fanfare as a 63% appraisal well. Looking back, how amateurish that was.
2024 could just be dead-zone without some kind of action. I hold a twelfth in value of 2018. Losses have devastated life and more importantly health. For the first time in 10 years, I have lost confidence in the company and, although I may well be talking tripe, I would consider any action whatsoever if I thought it could revive the share price….and along with it, life and mental health.
So, it seems to be just a waiting game but not sure what we are waiting for. I doubt news of a farm-in for Galeota is imminent. At this price, how foolhardy to self-fund Galeota. Risk would go through the roof. No onshore drills( so much for Hummingbirds). BA not until next year I would say. April results would reflect no hedging, no spt at all and a good realized price around $68. May results ..we know already. If Jacobin were going to pay for itself, it would be yielding something. It is March. Why do we know nothing( except for a pump)?
According to asset value, we should be at £2.
40p. What is going to change this?
Newlands? Segel? Winther? Castro? Etc. They need to unite to bring about change. I don’t believe they are inactive, but , as ACQ says, are we past the point of no return here? Do they need to bring radical change if no clear plan is in sight??
I need the share price to rise 200% just to break even. Life has become unexpectedly very tough , and I am not sure I see any clues ahead as to the way forward, apart from the spt bonus. That won’t bring us back. News of a partner( anyone interested?? Hello Perenco!!) . ANY news on Jacobin whatsoever. Any communication would be nice!
“ Shareholders of the world unite” K.Marx revisited
I may be wrong about much I write. But we sit below the 55p (5.5p) of Covid Lockdown and at the level in 2016 when Trinity was on the road to Administration!
So where to from here. Communicate please, Trinity.
Posted at 25/2/2024 20:25 by andrewbyles
Shareholders have suffered the most as a consequence of the substantial fall in Trinity’s share price, but that fall has affected the directors too.

First, Jeremy Bridglalsingh owns 565,591 shares, James Menzies owns 115,000 shares and Nick Clayton owns 30,000 shares. Angus Winther, who stepped down at the 2023 AGM, owns 3,213,299 shares (8.10% of the company). Since January 2023, the value of their shareholdings has fallen by about £450,000, £91,000, £18,000 and £2.55 million respectively. Further, David Segel was a director until February 2022 and his family trusts have lost about £3 million since January 2023.

Second, a generous package of long term share incentives was awarded to the executives in 2017. As the 2023 Annual Report explains, “The final vesting of the 2017 One Off Award was due to occur on 30 June 2022. However, as the three-month average VWAP to 30 June 2022 of 130.Op was below that prevailing at 30 June 2021 the remaining 1,214,744 unvested options lapsed.” Had the required targets been met, those shares would have vested at zero cost to management and would have been worth at least £1,579,000 (assuming that the share price had to be at least 130p). Further, at the current share price it’s unlikely that any of the outstanding a LTSIs are vest-able. Moreover, considering production levels and the share price, it’s unlikely bonuses are payable.

If management wants more than their base salaries, they need to get the share price and production up.
Posted at 25/2/2024 19:43 by aqc888
If Trinity were a house it would be a worn out old shack on some prime real estate.
The discussions over whether management can maximise returns are now as pointless as talking to a builder about whether to repair the roof of the Trinity shack or improve the insulation etc.
Forget it. The only serious value shareholders will now see is the sale of Trinity or a substantial part. The management took their opportunity to create value and have failed with the share price hitting crazy lows. The management have not decisively exploited these lows by buying shares themselves, and have thereby sealed their fate as busted.
Trinity shareholders have been battered, the situation in Trinidad shows that total production of Trinidad is reducing. It’s the time for consolidation of oilers in Trinidad as a country, due to its dwindling bopd, and its most certainly time for a weaker oiler like Trinity to be bought out.
Posted at 25/2/2024 04:29 by andrewbyles
We’re nearly two months into 2024 and Trinity’s share price continues to disappoint - it’s lost two thirds of its value since the beginning of 2023 and for now has settled at that level.

It’s worth remembering some of the recent comments made by Trinity’s management. First, on September 20th 2022, as part of the interim results, shareholders were told, “The first six months of 2022 was a period of consolidation for Trinity, positioning the Company strongly for the second half of the year and beyond. Stable production and higher oil prices boosted our revenues in the period, the benefit of this will be fully felt when our hedges expire at the end of 2022. Towards the end of the first half the Company commenced a potentially transformational drilling programme onshore Trinidad. The six-well programme is ongoing, with drilling of the most notable wells, a horizontal well and a deeper appraisal well, due to start in the coming months. I believe this has the potential to meaningfully increase our scale, and as such prove to be the start of one of the most exciting periods in the Company’s history. I am also pleased to announce the Company’s intention to implement a new Capital Allocation Policy which is likely to include the payment of a regular dividend and a share buy-back programme to further deliver value to our shareholders.”

Second, on June 2nd 2023, in the Annual Report, shareholders were told, “During 2022 Trinity put in place the foundations for an ambitious growth programme, developing a series of catalysts to drive shareholder value that we are now starting to execute in 2023. This important process has involved taking tough decisions based on identifying the most efficient allocation of capital across the portfolio” and “We are a forward-thinking company, harnessing the benefits of new datasets, software, processes and technologies to drive efficiency and responsibly deliver hydrocarbon-based energy. Trinity’s investment case is based upon resilient, low-cost production; near term, deliverable catalysts with the potential to achieve incremental growth; and a medium-term hopper of organic opportunities capable of delivering transformational growth. On behalf of our shareholders, we are focused on delivering significant growth in production and free cash flow, allowing us to pursue new growth opportunities and deliver sustainable returns to shareholders. Our strategy and business model are designed to deliver this core objective.”

In addition to those specific comments, for many years Trinity has ended it RNSs with, “Trinity's portfolio includes current production, significant near-term production growth opportunities from low-risk developments and multiple exploration prospects with the potential to deliver meaningful reserves/resources growth.”

Unfortunately, 2023 wasn’t Trinity’s year and, instead of growing, the business shrank (Trinity produced 2,975 bopd in 2022, but in 2024 is forecast to produce between 2,600 and 2,700 bopd - if Jacobin manages to contribute any meaningful production there’s a possibility that figure may be revised upwards). Obviously this isn’t good enough.

Whilst I’m not in favour of replacing the board (at least not yet), things cannot continue as they have before.

In the first instance, the board needs to consider whether the company has the ability to deliver on the aims set out above (eg, does it have the necessary expertise and financial resources). Trinity has a core net asset value of 201.5p (arguably the company is worth much more than that as the core net asset value doesn’t take into account the company’s significant 2C resources, the investment in Buenos Ayres, the investment in the Hummingbird prospects or even the VAT refund), which is more than four times the current share price. If the board isn’t confident that the company can deliver, it has a duty to explore selling the company or part of the company to a larger company that can deliver on those aims and in doing so close the gap between the current share price and core net asset value.

If the company believes it does have the ability to deliver, it needs to set out clearly and compellingly how it will do so. I think that will include:

1. Reducing costs so as to maximise profitability from the base production;

2. Explaining exactly what has been learned from Jacobin and why it’s appropriate to drill further wells, especially on Buenos Ayres;

3. Demonstrating that base production can be maintained (when you strip out ABM-151, 2023 was a terrible year for base production even allowing for the one-off problems with Trintes following the fire);

4. Bringing in a partner to develop Buenos Ayres and Galeota (a partner will provide two things: confidence in the drilling programme and a financial contribution towards the cost of that drilling);

5. Maximising returns to shareholders (reducing costs, maintaining base production and bringing on board a partner to fund fresh drilling will each make dividends more affordable); and

6. Making more of an effort to engage with shareholders and potential shareholders. Trinity urgently needs to set out a deliverable vision and set about persuading people of it (eg, by attending the various investor presentations).
Posted at 16/2/2024 11:06 by aqc888
With the current share price at less than 25% of the recently reported NAV why is everyone dancing around what should happen next? Is Trinity a family heirloom that makes everyone want to hold it anyhow? Nope. Does Trinity hold some kind of emotional attachment that would be hard to let go?!?! Nope. Would its asset be difficult to sell? Nope! Does everyone want to see the disaster of Trinity’s share price loss removed from their portfolio? Yes. Do management have to follow shareholders wishes if pressed? Yes. Would just the mere mention of the start of a formal process to sell Trinity/assets make the share price rise? Seriously though, one has to ask will Trinity ever be priced at a premium to its nav? Highly highly unlikely I’d say, therefore an offer of a slight discount would be ideal for everyone…
Posted at 10/2/2024 18:44 by arlington chetwynd talbott
Yes, the BoD are saying let us bank our salaries for another year and then we might have something meaningful for you. Not good enough, but they will undertake some kind of charm offensive in a few months to keep the natives (a disappointingly complacent lot) from becoming restless and it will all likely trundle on.

Sleveen suggests switching into TXP, but after all this time, although it is clear to me that TRIN no longer has a competent BoD and that things are finally happening at TXP, it is also clear that Trinidad itself appears to be part of the problem.

If the TRIN share price recovers modestly at some point in the coming months and folk then switch into a solid non-tech blue chip of their choice (one paying substantial but well covered dividends that they can reinvest), the majority of those folk will in the medium term (if not the short term) likely find themselves doing better than those remaining in TRIN - even if its dividends do continue - and wondering why on earth they ever bothered with TRIN and companies like it.

TRIN is a frustrating itch that I have resolved to stop scratching until the next (meaningful) RNS. I am clearly not persuading anybody to see TRIN for what it has become, let alone sack even one single member of the BoD.
Posted at 28/1/2024 22:47 by andrewbyles
In the new blog, I’ve argued that Trinity is potentially worth at least $166.3 million (£131 million or 336p per share). That sounds like a lot compared with the current £18.5 million market capitalisation/47.75p share price, but: (i) it’s based upon prices offered for two of Trinity’s three asset groups within the past 8 years; and (ii) is dwarfed by the $226 million of additional funds that shareholders have poured into Trinity since 2012.

If my estimate is wrong, it’s because oil assets have fallen significantly in value since 2016 (which seems unlikely in Trinidad given the fiscal reforms - which are now worth between $7.5 to $8.5 million per year to Trinity, and much more if we get some production from Galeota) and/or because management have squandered the $226 million (there have been several unsuccessful drills, but that’s part of oil exploration and there hasn’t been $226 million worth of failed drills or for that matter $226 million worth of payments to managers - the combined salaries for senior management have been between about $1.2 and $1.8 million per year for years).

If my estimate is wrong, I’d be surprised if it’s out by more than 50%, which would still give a share price of 168p.

Obviously, it would be helpful if Trinity or its brokers set out their opinion on asset value and I’ve asked them to do that.
Trinity Exploration & Pr... share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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