Royal Bank Of Scotland Share Discussion Threads

[cfc1] 11/1/2018 18:15

smurfs not its not! Barc now nearly 200p RBS 300+-.....RBS did 1-10 so equ of 30p...therefore Barc about 7 times greater - they never did a reverse split!

[smurfy2001] 11/1/2018 16:51

That's market caps cfc1, not share prices...

[cfc1] 11/1/2018 16:44

smurfs...and remember barc share price has not been diluted 1 for 10!! So RBS is equ 30p wherease Barc is SEVEN times in value!!!

[smurfy2001] 11/1/2018 16:39

BARC Market cap 34.33bn
RBS Market cap 35.10bn

I'm going to say BARC is seriously undervalued.

[sux_2bu] 11/1/2018 15:43

Order placed at 280p for the gap.

Will wait as long as it takes ;-)

[polar fox] 11/1/2018 15:11

Blimey - NatWest has launched a £125 switching offer, apparently its first for a decade. Details on MSE.

[cfc1] 11/1/2018 15:03

smurfs...yeah me too. But even at 350 its still a rubbish return for longer term holders.. OK if oyu bought in last jan...

[smurfy2001] 11/1/2018 14:41

Cracking 300 would be nice. I remember the days this use to trade around 350 or 35p old money and that was a low price!

I reckon this is pricing in a next quarter profit and profit for the year making it the first in 10 years. I'll be watching out for any provisions might give us an idea of the projected fine.

[cfc1] 11/1/2018 14:40

it would be nice to see the share price rise above 300 and then breakout higher. Its been TEN years + since we saw any decent price for the share price Meanwhile both the FTSE and certainly the Dow are at highest levels ever. US banks have totally recovered from the 2008 financial crisis!

[maxk] 10/1/2018 21:02

Well done JJ, more power to your elbow!


Snippets from the wireless:

Digby-Jones talking to Nigel:

Re: meeting with M Barnier


Pessimistic. Political game - no doubt.

Charming and hospitable, but reveres Brussels and the status quo, nothing is going to change his mind.

To cut a long story short, DJ thinks we should ask the question: Are you going to include Financial Services in the deal? If not, save everyone time and money and just walk away.


Sorry no link.

[polar fox] 10/1/2018 17:25

Given that the share price rose 4.6% today, on quite reasonable volume, apparently mostly because of MS's upgrade, it will be interesting to see, in the next week or two, whether a bullish piece of corporate news emerges. Obviously, if it does, we've actually been seeing someone buying on inside information. What a surprise that would be!

[jungle jim] 10/1/2018 16:45

Maxk, it does appear my little manufacturing company is a pretty good macro-economic indicator. Perhaps I should offer the ONS a daily phone call for them to update their forecasts :-)))

[polar fox] 10/1/2018 14:30

Reference the above, note this from NIESR too:

The thinktank believes the stronger than expected performance of the economy, coupled with inflation above the 2% target, will lead to the Bank of England raising interest rates by 0.25 points to 0.75% in May, with further increases every six months until by mid 2021, official borrowing costs have reached 2%.

unquote

[maxk] 10/1/2018 14:02

UK manufacturing output pushes GDP up 0.6%, says thinktank

Manufacturers benefit from weaker pound and stronger global economy, according to analysis from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research



Richard Partingtonand Larry Elliott

Wed 10 Jan ‘18 11.03 GMT


The longest spell of rising output from Britain’s factories in 23 years has left the economy on course to record its fastest rate of growth since late 2016, one of the country’s leading thinktanks has forecast.

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research said it was pencilling in expansion in gross domestic product of 0.6% in the final quarter of 2017 – up from 0.4% in the previous three months and above the latest City estimates.

Amit Kara, the institute’s head of UK macroeconomic forecasting, said activity had picked up in the second half of 2017 following a weak start to the year in which GDP increased by just 0.3% in both of the first two quarters.

“The recovery has been driven by both the manufacturing and the service sectors, supported by the weaker pound and a buoyant global economy, while construction output continues to lag,” Kara said.


He added: “In November we had forecast final quarter GDP growth at 0.5% and as such today’s revised estimate suggests that activity has strengthened by more than we had previously anticipated.”



More:

[raffles the gentleman thug] 10/1/2018 13:58

That's ok Polarfox it won't make a whole lot of difference. My point being was that the shares even at 292p are discounting something much worse. Thx for your great post re Morgan Stanley

[polar fox] 10/1/2018 13:42

2.5bn Pounds, Raffles.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 10/1/2018 13:19

Cfc1 ... if Morgan Stanley is right in their incremental $2.5bn provision these shares will move 10% at leafs on the news

[polar fox] 10/1/2018 13:15

Here's some of the MS comment:

In the note to clients, the Morgan Stanley analysts said: “We believe RBS offers better earnings visibility vs. peers as market share wins in mortgages will make it less vulnerable to ongoing asset spread compression in the segment.”

They added: “At the same time, substantial deleveraging in its corporate book and less exposure to consumer should see more resilient asset quality performance if macro were to deteriorate.”

The analysts also estimate that, with a lower increase in capital requirements than its peers, RBS could afford share buybacks equivalent to 15-20% of its market cap over time on top of dividend payments.

Litigation risks remain
They said litigation costs remain the biggest risk in 2018, with RBS expected to settle with the US Department of Justice on mortgage-backed securities mis-selling soon, with Morgan Stanley factoring-in a £2.5bn provision top-up in the fourth quarter of 17, which is the average of the fines it has tracked.

Unquote

[cfc1] 10/1/2018 13:04

Raffles..cheers..I agree re fine perhaps even $12B but that wont be all cash. It would be nice to see us go over 300...havent been there for soo long and still nothing really I was on hols in Dubai when the share price hit 58p pre 1-10 and that was prob 7 years ago????

[raffles the gentleman thug] 10/1/2018 10:32

Thanks cfc1 - just reran my own numbers and on basis of this commanding 15% premium to book post settlement that indicates a book value of 251p meaning shares already discounting a $11.2bn total settlement inc the $3.7bn already provides for which to my mind feels just a little excessive but then nobody knows what new team at DoJ thinking. Personally I'm happy to buy here as only see upside opportunity and U.K. get obviously believe a first quarter settlement is on the cards

[cfc1] 10/1/2018 10:24

Raffles...good post! just saw it and price target raised to 330p still equ of only 33p!!!

[raffles the gentleman thug] 10/1/2018 10:10

Morgan Stanley also upgraded RBS this morning btw

[polar fox] 10/1/2018 10:03

To be precise, trading at a two-year high this morning, but volume is nothing special.