Pendragon Share Discussion Threads

[ed 123] 20/5/2016 08:31

alanjames999

True, but what would you think if a China meltdown (or whatever) brought a recession and PDG shares traded at under 20p again? That cash would have been very useful.

Looking for the positives, at least it's only £20M. It could have been more.

[alanjames999] 20/5/2016 08:26

At least the buy backs were at a low opposed to mid 40s :)

[ed 123] 20/5/2016 08:22

tintin82

I disagree.

The buybacks will increase debt and put the company more at risk in the event of a downturn. The usual line about improving balance sheet efficiency does not impress me at all. Buybacks, in the near term, boost earnings per share, which is often a bonus related kpi for the directors. The buybacks also boost the income of the company's advisers/brokers (so, how clean is their advice?). The major shareholders go along with it because, either they want some strength to sell into, or they like the short term share price rise because it makes their figures look a bit better. Imv, the company should have held onto the cash.

[tintin82] 20/5/2016 07:23

Excellent news, quite happy with this buyback, the balance sheet can certainly afford it. A bit of momentum now would be nice.

[ed 123] 30/4/2016 00:41

Are you on commission?

Nope. He's on tracks.

[jeffian] 29/4/2016 23:38

thomasthetank1,

I can't help noticing that every single post you make seems to link back to research-tree.com

Are you on commission?

[thomasthetank1] 29/4/2016 13:10

Read Arden Partners's note on PENDRAGON, out this morning, by visiting hxxps://www.research-tree.com/company/GB00B1JQBT10
"Valuations in the UK motor retail sector have de-rated as the market speculates that the UK is reaching a mature stage of the new car cycle... Consequently, we believe the market has meaningfully underestimated the longevity of the demand cycle which, alongside the evolving retail proposition at Pendragon, presents a significant value opportunity. We continue, therefore, to challenge the rationale of modest sector valuations ..."

[jeffian] 29/4/2016 10:46

"underlying EBITDA ratio continues to be significantly below our target range so we are assessing the best use of funds."

Well they could always return it to shareholders as a dividend or return of capital!

8-)

[grabster] 28/4/2016 08:18

Good update. The headline 'expected to be inline" doesn't sound impressive, but the rest of the detail all sounds better. The predicted softening in new car sales might sound negative for the car sales sector, but Pendragon's focus on aftersales leaves them better balanced than some peers.

[jaf111] 28/4/2016 08:16

IMS seems fine....Historic eps 3.7p underlying 1st Q profits up 8.7% so seems reasonable to expect full year eps to rise to 4p....so PE ratio of just 8.5?

[tintin82] 26/4/2016 10:09

Agreed, just doubled down, expecting a solid update.

[jaf111] 26/4/2016 09:43

Trading Update out Thursday....hopefully will be a catalyst to a rally in share price.....PDG looking very cheap IMO.

[grabster] 18/3/2016 12:15

Pendragon (PDG) looks poised to jump over the next few trading days..

[grabster] 18/3/2016 12:12

I just added a few to my recent stake.

[sphere25] 16/2/2016 09:00

- Top line, bottom line and dividend all ahead of expectations.
- Refinancing complete with the calling in of bonds in March

Industry Insight and Outlook:

New:

"We are maintaining our view that the 2016 new car market will be stable"

Used:

"We have previously modelled the impact of the new market volumes on the used car market and continue to believe we will see growth of around 2% per annum over the next three years"

Aftersales:

"The aftersales servicing and repair business will benefit from increased new and used car activity. As a result of the increased new vehicle supply, we have seen growth in the less than three year old car parc of around 9% and expect this to grow by around 5% in 2016"

- Overall outlook is fine

PDG has been re-rated down from about 12.5x 2016 earnings down to about 9.8x at the current price of 37.5p.

I thought the move down from 48p to 33p was irrational. I was looking for 40/early 40s for, but decided to exit selling into the spike at 39p this morning. That's just over 10x and perhaps a fairer rating for the current uncertain environment.

Anywho, I put my trading decisions out there in the public and have now booked profits of between 5 and 20% on the various trades I was buying on the way down. Sat at new highs on the portfolio with double digit gains for 2016 to date.

Big shout out to the fund manglers for giving their stock away cheap...as per usual. Onto the next one.

Good luck to holders here!

[alanjames999] 16/2/2016 08:17

Nice results

[sphere25] 12/2/2016 13:46

Volatile out there, but that might just be a double bottom and reversal on the chart heading into results.



Berenberg also confident on PDG despite share price fall.

Fund manglers have given their stock away cheap and will soon be chasing it back up.

Interest rate rise? More like negative interest rates!

[dimpkins] 09/2/2016 10:26

Cheers Sphere

[sphere25] 09/2/2016 10:19

Judging by previous years, it should be next week. If there was anything materially wrong with trading, PDG would have long informed the market. Abit of an odd situation here, because it looks like this went into the FTSE 250 replacing TCY (which was taken over) recently, but now appears to be headed back out again - Just a passing visit then! :-D

So there might be some added tracker fund selling to add to the wider market jitters.

Doesn't phase me, I'm happy to nibble away at stocks which are hugely off their highs, where trading has been fine and there is a nice yield.

Looks like more price weakness to come atm, but plenty of large sales on out there - makes sense to be nibbling here and there when the sales are on!

May as well get paid a nice dividend whilst waiting till the market finds a bottom too.

All imo

[dimpkins] 09/2/2016 10:10

Is there a date for the next update?

It certainly does look oversold I still wonder what is happening with Jaguar Land Rover, they had record sales this January up 24% yet Pendragon seem to have got rid of their exposure to them plus they are supposed to be in a court action with an ex senior employee regarding JLR, hope there is nothing bad its just market jitters

[sphere25] 09/2/2016 09:25

Continuing to average in on the way down. This is monumentally oversold! Often get vicious bounces when stocks are this oversold with no change to fundamentals.

P/e down to about 8.7 with a 4.4% dividend yield. Fund manglers are advised to buy yield in markets like these.

[alanjames999] 05/2/2016 10:08

Last years August statement was extremely positive, so unless their is inside information happening no reason for a 35% drop in a month. Also interest rates not risen as everyone thought..

[sphere25] 05/2/2016 09:56

Been buying in here this morning. The fund manglers are giving their stock away cheap again.

Stock has fallen from 48 down to 35 for no (as far as I can see) legitimate reason - massively oversold now. Debt not an issue here and the multiple is down into single digits and trading at a discount to other listed dealers (which haven't moved anywhere near as significantly as PDG).

Good figures from SMMT yesterday. Yes, motor numbers aren't going to continue to scream north, but the way the stock has fallen suggests that the motor market is collapsing - far from it.

One fund shorting is hardly cause for concern. Perhaps we are near a top and it is a longer term play on their part, but I can't see why PDG can't at least command a multiple of 10-11 and sit around the 40-44 mark again.

Results in a couple of weeks. I'd expect these to confirm that trading is fine and the fears here are massively overblown.

[felix99] 05/2/2016 08:39

LOOK got a lot of exposure to VW. I believe Jan car sales were punching records - except VW down 14% Hence ODey and LOOk?