Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Oxford Biomedica LSE:OXB London Ordinary Share GB0006648157 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 3.79p 3.70p 3.90p - - - 0.00 05:00:10
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 15.9 -17.0 -0.5 - 117.03

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08/12/201617:15Oxford Biomedica Bulls Only Thread21,936.00
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Oxford Biomedica Daily Update: Oxford Biomedica is listed in the Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker OXB. The last closing price for Oxford Biomedica was 3.79p.
Oxford Biomedica has a 4 week average price of 3.57p and a 12 week average price of 3.45p.
The 1 year high share price is 8.45p while the 1 year low share price is currently 0p.
There are currently 3,087,953,461 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 15,889,264 shares. The market capitalisation of Oxford Biomedica is £117,033,436.17.
harry s truman: Marcus, I'm sure that a plan is in place too. But we pay JD a very large amount of money to implement plans, not just make them. I'm not being over negative here, I'm just making the point that we have heard lots of plans and forecasts. What actually happens is of far more importance. I'm of the opinion that ProSavin Mk2 has been ready to go for some time. The drug is made, the trial is approved and the patients are ready. The point is that it costs money to treat (then study) people and we don't have it to spare. So I think cost is the only issue. What's worse is that if we had been able to fund a ProSavin Mk2 trial in-house and the data was conclusive, then that would drive a killer deal for P3. As it is we have to try to do a deal on inconclusive multi-dose level / multi-patient illness level / multi-drug application type data from the first trial and the deal won't be anywhere as good. Best they can hope for is a deal that pays incremental royalties and milestones based on the relative success of future results. It's not a great situation to be in. Even EncorStat, which involves sitting a donor cornea in a bath of lenti before the operation is delayed. There probably isn't a simpler trial for us. Myself I think that OXB imagined something to have happened by now. I'm not sure what it would be, but I feel that they expected to have more money in Q3 of this year and it didn't happen. Maybe they just expected the share price to be higher and to generate more cash that way. It could be as simple as that, but it is what it is. We have to accept that the cash is enough to proceed with manufacturing but nothing else. Most of our lent-drugs seem to have been low dosed with their first trials and I'm not complaining about that. It's better than having the company's reputation destroyed with adverse effects from too high of a dose, but we are now in the catch 22 situation with most of them, where we need a partner to fund a retrial when it's the results from that retrial which are needed to partner the drugs. The exception is of course StarGen, as it's already partnered and the inconvenience of delay is a far more pressing issue to Sanofi than the cost of the new drug / second trial which is insignificant to their resources. If TroVax turns out really positive (and it may) then I have an inkling that JD will want to sell it rather than partner it. I wouldn't be happy about that but I can understand why he would do it - to get rid of a non core vaccine and at the same time fund gene therapy trials in the pipeline which could then be partnered. Anything spare could go towards the Oberland debt and meanwhile the manufacturing / production plods on whilst the trials take their course. If that does happen then I just hope that he gets a good price. But if the money doesn't come from TroVax, then there's only really an up-front for doing a deal with CAR-T 5T4. Failing that, where would it come from? I realise that there is the deal / spin out plan, but these drugs have been available to partner for a long time. We have no money to co-partner. What else can there be?
gareth jones: I think it is obvious to all LTH's that whilst this rebound in share price is welcome, a strong, positive news flow, as suggested by the board before this years fund raising is what is needed to add momentum and solidity to the rising share price. At least the production side of the business should show ever increasing turnover and hopefully profit from additional production and new contracts coming on board.
wageslave: Marcus, just trying to stimulate some necessary debate on this moribund thread that seems to exist in a bubble with no relation to the share price (fall) or reflection on where this company is heading. Have made money in the past here and would like to see the company flourish. However, the past year has been little more that disastrous if you consider the share price - and that is what it's all about if you are an investor. Not just pie in the sky, if you get my drift.
wageslave: Doesn't seem to occur to any of you that this business is in a complete and utter mess. Hence the share price falls and dodgy funding. They should have raised capital when the share price was a lot higher and not diluted us so much. 16 years and not one drug brought to market and eye watering levels of funding!
wageslave: Seems that the private investor community (including myself) is feeling pretty down and out with OXB as another fund raising and dilution set the share price back into the doldrums, recording a 70% fall in 18 months. Albeit from a recent peak.The information given by OXB also lacks a degree of clarity. From being promised a profitable manufacturing operation 18 months ago we now appear to have expanded manufacturing, but when these activities actually turn a profit seems to be anyone's guess. Drug development and eventual licencing seems as far away as ever.The only positive, as many have mentioned, is the fact there are still institutions willing to stump up cash to keep the show on the road.Time for some blue sky thinking, perhaps?Do OXB:1. Carry on with business as usual, continuing on their present course and hope they can avoid another funding cycle groundhog day in the not too distant future with a blockbuster drug discovery or turning significant profits on the manufacturing side?2. Split into 2 firms. One profitable, dealing with the manufacturing of gene therapy products and the other with drug discovery. Possibly involving another fund raise or IPO for the drug development side.3. Find a buyer to take us all out of misery who can then look at the options themself.As we know where the company intends to take things for the next 12 months it will be business as usual. But at the end of that period or when the latest funding runs out, I do think a serious review of the business will be incumbent on the board of directors. Let's hope it doesn't come to that and the writing isn't on the wall.
harry s truman: Interesting to note that it's a 15 day process Phil, I often wondered how long it took to do a batch. Pram, In post 20879 I went through all OXB's recent releases to see what they actually forecast for 2016. Then in the following post had a few afterthoughts to cover unknowns / unexpected news, but it's mainly just the stuff that they claimed to be expecting. I think there will be slip (which should be OXB's motto), but they may get some of it. Harry S Truman 24 Jul '16 - 20:25 - 20879 of 21071 I always expect it tomorrow (except on weekends). 2016 potential newsflow (In-­house priority products) • OXB-­102 (ProSavin Mk 2) Phase I/II first patient expected dosed in Q3 (we are in Q3). Same sites to be used as last time (UK/France) 30 patients (6 in each of the 3 dose cohorts and then 12 more to confirm the best dose - just as last time). • OXB-­202 (EncorStat) Phase I/II study CTA (Clinical Trial Authorisation) for 40 patient trial to be submitted in H2/Q4 • OXB-­302 (CAR-­T 5T4) pre-­clinical study results from the lab tests using the Novartis CAR-T technology and our own protein target from TroVax. • OXB-­301 (TroVax) 4 trials underway, 2 of which (colon and lung) expected to report further news in 2016. (Partners’ products) • Novartis CTL-­019 clinical trial study results from the second Novartis agreement with us. • Novartis CTL-­019 BLA submission (Biologics License Application - BLA - is a request for permission to introduce a biologic product into interstate commerce). In other words, applying for a licence to sell the drug from the first Novartis agreement with us. (Production facility news) • Successful development of 200L bioreactor serum-­free suspension process to produce lentiviral vectors • Further contracts with new partners giving us long-­term economic interest in partners’ product candidates Harry S Truman 24 Jul '16 - 20:39 - 20880 of 21071 For me there, the ProSavin result could be company changing news, but we're not expecting a result, just news that the trial has started - so I don't expect that to really drive anything this year. I also think that JD will not release cohort news, so we will only find out before the trial end if someone like Sheila goes public. Similar really with EncorStat news - it will be progress in the right direction, but quite a way from eventual results. CAR-­T 5T4 (if good lab results) could be exciting as it is CAR-­T for a solid tumour and the market might like that prospect a lot. CAR-­T being in vogue. Novartis news and submission would be good, because if successfully then as soon as they start selling that, we begin to earn our low single digit royalties on the sales - we also get paid for helping to manufacture the product. Good news about the 200 litre reactors doesn't really need explaining - but if we can make more then we can sell more and earn more. Further contracts from unknown is something that JD has hinted at. Might be a wild-card for news that could come at any time and could have quite a positive effect on the share price (new partners = new earnings for the expanded facility). Final wild-card is TroVax in mesothelioma. If that reports a good survival advantage then it would be worth a lot of money to OXB and should quickly go to a phase 3 trial either with us or a partner, as the need for a drug which can do that is an urgent one.
sddavies1: The board doesn't seem that eager to release any news though. Why let the share price languish at 4p when it doesn't belong there?It would strike me as Ill thought out for a CEO with an accounting background to let slip that extra funding is going to be required (knowing full well the impact that statement will immediately have on the share price) to then not have to go ahead and do exactly that when the time comes.I don't know what is going on but I feel very irritated as a shareholder that this drastic loss in value has occurred when the company is supposed to be on the brink of breakeven. This is especially so because the management seem to have been very quiet on the subject for far too long now. The market does not like uncertainty so this makes me suspect that the silence is deliberate because the share price is only going to drop even further when they do get around to saying something.I really, really hope I am wrong!
philh75: Anyone concerned about the potential shock impact of a leave vote to oxb share price, or uk shares in general?
harry s truman: Pram, IMHO a consolidation is a waste of time (and more importantly money) at this stage, as the costs of doing that are not insignificant and our share price would be of little interest to anyone seeking some kind of deal - their main priority would be to see OXB as a funded going concern. As for being in or out of the money, I'm not exactly sure what you're getting at there, but I've only been totally stuffed twice with shareholdings (I'm not counting investments where the idea or business didn't work out well). One of these was a company which was taken private by the major shareholders who held the preference shares and made a take it or leave it offer for the ordinary shares. They now sponsor F1 cars. The other occasion was a company which I knew little about (more fool me) but was a hot tip in a publication that I subscribed to at the time. I made a modest investment and the directors disappeared with the money. I got pence in the pound back from the first and nothing back from the second. The reason I've parroted all that out is to reassure you that neither were anything like OXB. Our company is main market (my 2 examples weren't) and the big institutional investors in OXB (we're essentially 25% owned by AVIVA and M&G) are interested in making money from a profitable company - they likely have no interest at all in taking one private. Then there is Vulpes, which even if it wanted to doesn't have the cash - and I suspect it doesn't want to either. If Martin wanted to run OXB then he could just pick his time and go for the big job directly. JD is an accountant who was previously a non-exec - not a specialist scientist, he's far from irreplaceable and if a challenger made a case for results against set goals then what is there besides the manufacturing and what were we sold that as? I'm not making that as a prediction, I'm simply suggesting that just as JD moved from a non-exec position into one of the professor's old roles, someone else could easily do that to him. My gut feeling is still that this will be ok for us. Likelihood is that the expanded production facility will essentially fund us until our next TRIST type deal or in house success, at which point a market re-rating would make the share price look a lot better too. Might be a while and what goes on in the interim will more than likely involve our expensive (and profit sharing) lender.
harry s truman: Doc, Interesting point re replacement on the same terms. I think the actual terms are very much secondary in most people's minds - we all accept these days that CEO's will generally pay themselves whatever they can - it's the performance of the share price which is the metric for most people. If the share price performance was good then the money to JD would be no issue for most. I've nothing against JD personally. I've disagreed with some of the decisions that he has made, but at the end of the day I am a shareholder typing on a BB and he is a CEO with a room full of advisers. It's unlikely that I'm the one who knows best and I simply have to hope that he acts on the best available advice. However, shareholder inclusiveness under him is the pits. We were probably spoiled somewhat by the previous regime, but these days what we get appears to be the absolute minimum that he can get away with. Even the Edison reports seem to have dried up now. Until recently we were able to bypass the stonewall of OXB and keep track of recruitment in the TroVax trials via that UKCRN website, but that seems to have closed down and so now we will have no idea on the progress of any of these trials until OXB deem to make an announcement (or not). Had JD made a serious effort to make us feel included then he would have gained an awful lot of goodwill on here. As it is though, there are now plenty of people who look how much money he earns with his salary, his bonuses, his share options and such, before pondering (often out loud) his actual value to us given the share price. He hasn't done himself any favours in that respect. I think it was yourself on here a long time ago who told us that JD's big claim to fame was being tasked with buying a European division for Cephalon, but following that shopping spree he and them seemed to part company. Perhaps I've not got that 100%, but I certainly remember the OXB appointment notice quoting a turnover figure for the division that he grew for Cephalon (which I assume means acquired for them). I'm sure he's a bright chap, but he just doesn't ever come across as a CEO that you'd want to have interviewed by Paxman or facing a house of commons committee. If he was in the right place at the right time during some tumultuous events for OXB then good luck to him, but that doesn't mean that we owe him a living forever. Should OXB ever make that leap from biotech drug development (and now contract manufacturing / technology partnering) into a pharmaceutical company with its own licensed drug (not impossible - others have done it) then I could easily foresee a situation where Martin and the other major shareholders would thank him for all of his hard work during the transition, pay him up whatever his evergreen and his options are worth, then introduce the man or woman to guide the company through its next phase. Anyway, that aside and for what it's worth, I'm still very positive about OXB. I think we're in much better shape than we have been for years. I have this idea (and it might be Pram who intimated this - but apologies if it wasn't) that we were told in the past that OXB weren't chasing Lentivector contracts too hard as the Novartis deal basically tied everything up. This seemed to be confirmed by OXB directly in the placing RNS, when they explained that production income for H1 2015 was hit whilst they produced the clinical trial material for our upcoming ProSavin trial. In other words they couldn't produce Lentivactor for CAR-T engineering for Novartis and Lentivector for ProSavin gene transport simultaneously. They didn't have the capacity and thus only H2 2015 had full production Novartis earnings. They explain in the results this week that "our cGMP clean room capacity has more than doubled to 950m2. We are expanding this capacity further, and with the recent completion of GMP2 will have three independent production suites totalling 1,200m2.". So there are several ways to look at this:- We could now work on our in house drugs and those for Novartis simultaneously (but unless RetinoStat needs new dose levels it's hard to see the immediate need for that). We could simply expand our production for Novartis which in round figures was £10m for H2 2015 on the original capacity - not the 2 stage expansion to 950 or 1200m2. But more likely to me is that we very quickly now bring on-board another Novartis type contract from one of the many companies that have been using our Lentivector on a research licence. There are a lot of them and some will go into the clinic. I think this / these are what OXB are hinting at when they say in the results that "Our work with Novartis has enhanced our credibility in the sector and we are in discussions with a number of third parties working in a variety of cell therapy areas to provide such services and IP licences". Then later they add "Partnering revenues should continue to grow strongly in 2016" and in the outlook they say that "we plan to advance our integrated business through a number of inflection points." To me that says another manufacturing partner is in the wings - and I remember what share price we went from and to following the Novartis deal. This also fits with the idea of a small agreed placing to get us to a certain point (which seemed a very precise sum) prior to a much bigger open offer at a much higher price - possibly to get rid of the Oberland loan facility and clear the decks of the manufacturing expansion costs. Whether it's a large increase in manufacturing earnings from Novartis or another manufacturing partner / new partners - or both - it doesn't really matter to me. Hoping for both doesn't seem to be unrealistic.
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