Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Oxford Biomedica LSE:OXB London Ordinary Share GB0006648157 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.035p +0.83% 4.25p 4.25p 4.33p 4.33p 4.20p 4.28p 2,569,910.00 16:25:36
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 15.9 -17.0 -0.5 - 131.66

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Oxford Biomedica Daily Update: Oxford Biomedica is listed in the Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker OXB. The last closing price for Oxford Biomedica was 4.22p.
Oxford Biomedica has a 4 week average price of 4.11p and a 12 week average price of 3.83p.
The 1 year high share price is 7.75p while the 1 year low share price is currently 3p.
There are currently 3,097,953,461 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 2,082,859 shares. The market capitalisation of Oxford Biomedica is £131,663,022.09.
beanol: HarryFrom reading your always thoughtful and considered posts for years I know you have a deep well of understanding about Oxb which the rest of us profit from and I certainly for one will never rival or come near. But right now (2017) there's a business imperative on the march - Novartis and Car T therapy : I am clear from a combination of the following: letter LT wrote following two specific complaints I made, speaking to people connected to Novartis, others involved in the haplessly managed fund raising last year that this year if not now or never for Oxb will certainly be pretty critical for the company. No substantive progress for Novartis no progression for Oxb share price. But if progress for Novartis and Car T then we get into a virtuous circle which will per force mean a closer relationship or more with Novartis. Given what the latter have riding on Car T there is likely to be no other alternative. I can't believe Trovax or any other drug from Oxb's stable will (really) come into the reckoning. Time will tell obviously but let's see where we are end of April. In writing this I realise I am becoming a one trick pony but in spite of its pretensions to wider success so I'm afraid Oxb may be becoming too.
harry s truman: Hello Pram, I accept that there are 2 sides to this and both have some merit. In an absolute nutshell:- I'm thinking that Novartis already have everything they need tied into what looks to me like an open ended service contract that will have to be honoured regardless of who owns OXB. You're thinking that the co-development agreement is already very close and will become so intertwined upon success that the simplest thing to do would be to absorb OXB into Novartis allowing them to use further developments of LentiVector across many future products without licence / manufacturing issues, whilst also inheriting the possible fruits of any other non-exclusive licences. Orchard being the most recent example of that. I'm at ease with it but would stress my points in a slightly different way:- 1) We're essentially talking about the future here as Novartis won't do anything before they get a licence and discover what the market really is. 2) Many past references / examples suggest that successful drug development companies are far more likely to be absorbed by a large pharmaceutical company than actually grow into a pharmaceutical company themselves. I think we all accept that if OXB have a good result or two then they will become a target. This investment has to end for us all sometime and I much prefer that end game to the administration route which chases all cash-burn development companies at some point. 3) Last point is simply a reiteration to think about the numbers involved here. By the time that Novartis are selling the first CAR-T drug then not only will OXB be receiving milestones and royalties for that, but they will also have seen the BLA submission for the second CAR-T drug and the results for the first 2 TroVax trials. I won't pick a random share price because we already have a broker target of 12p based on the known CAR-T program alone, but the potential is there for the share price to be much higher than that. Add a bid premium and on 3bn shares it really is a lot of money. Even for large pharmaceutical companies it's a lot of money. Yet currently Novartis hold a relatively tiny stake and made no effort (that we know of) to take a block in the last placing. With all that in mind it strikes me that they aren't currently interested, but it might change for a "sure thing" later - even if they have to pay 10x the cost now in exchange for that much reduced risk later.
beanol: Yes Harry. Agree almost entirely. Only point of difference is about the future which we both know is outside our gift. I particularly agree with your points on JD's Remuneration package the subject of one of my two complaints to LT - the way JD's package is structured is obviously a breach - certainly in spirit - of the UK's corporate governance code. And then there's the way JD handled the fund raising last year. On the Remuneration package LT wrote in his letter as follows: "A significant part of Mr Dawson's Remuneration package is linked to the share price performance. 50% of of his annual bonus is provided in the form of deferred shares and the annual LTIP award of options to him and the other Senior Executive Team members have challenging share price increase requirements for the options to best" A distorsion of the truth. BUT I remain a considered optimist. I do think Oxb is in better shape than it has been for years. And given where we are with gene therapy it must surely be a case of cometh the hour cometh Oxb.
beanol: True Harry but don't you think Oxb's situation is (a bit) less binary right now. Using your oil analogy, one could argue that Oxb have discovered and are deploying a novel way to produce oil from difficult locations. This gives them a first mover advantage right now in an exciting new field and adds (some) IP to the existing company holdings. This capability will generate significant revenues and boost the share price off its current floor. This together with its novel drug pipeline and outstanding scientific capabilities will surely make it an attractive acquisition target for Novartis. It does seem to me that the moves over the past six months or so give the impression of the pig being fastened for market. Final point: job vacancies at Oxb seem to be very low. Good I think.
beanol: Ref Harry's previous few posts and Marcus's dreams I offer the following:What success looks like obviously evolves and morphs for most companies and especially one like Oxb which unfortunately seems mired in permanent adolescence. But it seems to me that, if we are lucky, we are approaching an inflection point which will decide the future of the company and our lot as shareholders. That inflection point is the filing in Q1 2017 with the US FDA for CTL019. If this process goes smoothly Novartis will surely want to tie down all key elements in the development and production chain of which Oxb is one part. If this happens Novartis will further want all these key elements to come under their governance and tech criteria - which is likely to mean them wanting to either take a bigger stake in Oxb or buying the whole company. Should this happen the multiple may be unlikely to be in the realms of 50x but could comfortably see us having an share price in the order of 20p plus. Quite a few posters have made the point that they want Oxb's own drug pipeline to take pride of place and that this is why they invested in Oxb. Fair point. Me too. But I don't think this is 'real world' thinking - given we are where we are - especially when there is an attractive and viable alternative path. Besides which, how would Oxb finance continuing to go its own way - the last fund raising was a fiasco or actually worse given the way JD handled it ie beyond incompetent and he should surely have lost his job for that? The fact remains that Oxb has lost the confidence of the market and will have difficulty raising further funds without clear breakthroughs. Posters have also made the point that Oxb becoming a largely manufacturing company will further depress the SP/expectations - well yes to some extent but Oxb is not manufacturing paracetamol. Its Oxb's hi tech specialised delivery process which provides the platform which allows the whole Novartis chain to work - they couldn't replicate this speedily. Simpler and more efficient to bring Oxb in house. If there's progress this year on e.g. Trovax then great but I'm confident it is developments in CTL019 and Novartis's decisions which has the best chance of us seeing Oxb end 2017 on a multiple of the current share price or even better.
harry s truman: Interesting to note that it's a 15 day process Phil, I often wondered how long it took to do a batch. Pram, In post 20879 I went through all OXB's recent releases to see what they actually forecast for 2016. Then in the following post had a few afterthoughts to cover unknowns / unexpected news, but it's mainly just the stuff that they claimed to be expecting. I think there will be slip (which should be OXB's motto), but they may get some of it. Harry S Truman 24 Jul '16 - 20:25 - 20879 of 21071 I always expect it tomorrow (except on weekends). 2016 potential newsflow (In-­house priority products) • OXB-­102 (ProSavin Mk 2) Phase I/II first patient expected dosed in Q3 (we are in Q3). Same sites to be used as last time (UK/France) 30 patients (6 in each of the 3 dose cohorts and then 12 more to confirm the best dose - just as last time). • OXB-­202 (EncorStat) Phase I/II study CTA (Clinical Trial Authorisation) for 40 patient trial to be submitted in H2/Q4 • OXB-­302 (CAR-­T 5T4) pre-­clinical study results from the lab tests using the Novartis CAR-T technology and our own protein target from TroVax. • OXB-­301 (TroVax) 4 trials underway, 2 of which (colon and lung) expected to report further news in 2016. (Partners’ products) • Novartis CTL-­019 clinical trial study results from the second Novartis agreement with us. • Novartis CTL-­019 BLA submission (Biologics License Application - BLA - is a request for permission to introduce a biologic product into interstate commerce). In other words, applying for a licence to sell the drug from the first Novartis agreement with us. (Production facility news) • Successful development of 200L bioreactor serum-­free suspension process to produce lentiviral vectors • Further contracts with new partners giving us long-­term economic interest in partners’ product candidates Harry S Truman 24 Jul '16 - 20:39 - 20880 of 21071 For me there, the ProSavin result could be company changing news, but we're not expecting a result, just news that the trial has started - so I don't expect that to really drive anything this year. I also think that JD will not release cohort news, so we will only find out before the trial end if someone like Sheila goes public. Similar really with EncorStat news - it will be progress in the right direction, but quite a way from eventual results. CAR-­T 5T4 (if good lab results) could be exciting as it is CAR-­T for a solid tumour and the market might like that prospect a lot. CAR-­T being in vogue. Novartis news and submission would be good, because if successfully then as soon as they start selling that, we begin to earn our low single digit royalties on the sales - we also get paid for helping to manufacture the product. Good news about the 200 litre reactors doesn't really need explaining - but if we can make more then we can sell more and earn more. Further contracts from unknown is something that JD has hinted at. Might be a wild-card for news that could come at any time and could have quite a positive effect on the share price (new partners = new earnings for the expanded facility). Final wild-card is TroVax in mesothelioma. If that reports a good survival advantage then it would be worth a lot of money to OXB and should quickly go to a phase 3 trial either with us or a partner, as the need for a drug which can do that is an urgent one.
sddavies1: The board doesn't seem that eager to release any news though. Why let the share price languish at 4p when it doesn't belong there?It would strike me as Ill thought out for a CEO with an accounting background to let slip that extra funding is going to be required (knowing full well the impact that statement will immediately have on the share price) to then not have to go ahead and do exactly that when the time comes.I don't know what is going on but I feel very irritated as a shareholder that this drastic loss in value has occurred when the company is supposed to be on the brink of breakeven. This is especially so because the management seem to have been very quiet on the subject for far too long now. The market does not like uncertainty so this makes me suspect that the silence is deliberate because the share price is only going to drop even further when they do get around to saying something.I really, really hope I am wrong!
philh75: Anyone concerned about the potential shock impact of a leave vote to oxb share price, or uk shares in general?
harry s truman: Pram, IMHO a consolidation is a waste of time (and more importantly money) at this stage, as the costs of doing that are not insignificant and our share price would be of little interest to anyone seeking some kind of deal - their main priority would be to see OXB as a funded going concern. As for being in or out of the money, I'm not exactly sure what you're getting at there, but I've only been totally stuffed twice with shareholdings (I'm not counting investments where the idea or business didn't work out well). One of these was a company which was taken private by the major shareholders who held the preference shares and made a take it or leave it offer for the ordinary shares. They now sponsor F1 cars. The other occasion was a company which I knew little about (more fool me) but was a hot tip in a publication that I subscribed to at the time. I made a modest investment and the directors disappeared with the money. I got pence in the pound back from the first and nothing back from the second. The reason I've parroted all that out is to reassure you that neither were anything like OXB. Our company is main market (my 2 examples weren't) and the big institutional investors in OXB (we're essentially 25% owned by AVIVA and M&G) are interested in making money from a profitable company - they likely have no interest at all in taking one private. Then there is Vulpes, which even if it wanted to doesn't have the cash - and I suspect it doesn't want to either. If Martin wanted to run OXB then he could just pick his time and go for the big job directly. JD is an accountant who was previously a non-exec - not a specialist scientist, he's far from irreplaceable and if a challenger made a case for results against set goals then what is there besides the manufacturing and what were we sold that as? I'm not making that as a prediction, I'm simply suggesting that just as JD moved from a non-exec position into one of the professor's old roles, someone else could easily do that to him. My gut feeling is still that this will be ok for us. Likelihood is that the expanded production facility will essentially fund us until our next TRIST type deal or in house success, at which point a market re-rating would make the share price look a lot better too. Might be a while and what goes on in the interim will more than likely involve our expensive (and profit sharing) lender.
harry s truman: Doc, Interesting point re replacement on the same terms. I think the actual terms are very much secondary in most people's minds - we all accept these days that CEO's will generally pay themselves whatever they can - it's the performance of the share price which is the metric for most people. If the share price performance was good then the money to JD would be no issue for most. I've nothing against JD personally. I've disagreed with some of the decisions that he has made, but at the end of the day I am a shareholder typing on a BB and he is a CEO with a room full of advisers. It's unlikely that I'm the one who knows best and I simply have to hope that he acts on the best available advice. However, shareholder inclusiveness under him is the pits. We were probably spoiled somewhat by the previous regime, but these days what we get appears to be the absolute minimum that he can get away with. Even the Edison reports seem to have dried up now. Until recently we were able to bypass the stonewall of OXB and keep track of recruitment in the TroVax trials via that UKCRN website, but that seems to have closed down and so now we will have no idea on the progress of any of these trials until OXB deem to make an announcement (or not). Had JD made a serious effort to make us feel included then he would have gained an awful lot of goodwill on here. As it is though, there are now plenty of people who look how much money he earns with his salary, his bonuses, his share options and such, before pondering (often out loud) his actual value to us given the share price. He hasn't done himself any favours in that respect. I think it was yourself on here a long time ago who told us that JD's big claim to fame was being tasked with buying a European division for Cephalon, but following that shopping spree he and them seemed to part company. Perhaps I've not got that 100%, but I certainly remember the OXB appointment notice quoting a turnover figure for the division that he grew for Cephalon (which I assume means acquired for them). I'm sure he's a bright chap, but he just doesn't ever come across as a CEO that you'd want to have interviewed by Paxman or facing a house of commons committee. If he was in the right place at the right time during some tumultuous events for OXB then good luck to him, but that doesn't mean that we owe him a living forever. Should OXB ever make that leap from biotech drug development (and now contract manufacturing / technology partnering) into a pharmaceutical company with its own licensed drug (not impossible - others have done it) then I could easily foresee a situation where Martin and the other major shareholders would thank him for all of his hard work during the transition, pay him up whatever his evergreen and his options are worth, then introduce the man or woman to guide the company through its next phase. Anyway, that aside and for what it's worth, I'm still very positive about OXB. I think we're in much better shape than we have been for years. I have this idea (and it might be Pram who intimated this - but apologies if it wasn't) that we were told in the past that OXB weren't chasing Lentivector contracts too hard as the Novartis deal basically tied everything up. This seemed to be confirmed by OXB directly in the placing RNS, when they explained that production income for H1 2015 was hit whilst they produced the clinical trial material for our upcoming ProSavin trial. In other words they couldn't produce Lentivactor for CAR-T engineering for Novartis and Lentivector for ProSavin gene transport simultaneously. They didn't have the capacity and thus only H2 2015 had full production Novartis earnings. They explain in the results this week that "our cGMP clean room capacity has more than doubled to 950m2. We are expanding this capacity further, and with the recent completion of GMP2 will have three independent production suites totalling 1,200m2.". So there are several ways to look at this:- We could now work on our in house drugs and those for Novartis simultaneously (but unless RetinoStat needs new dose levels it's hard to see the immediate need for that). We could simply expand our production for Novartis which in round figures was £10m for H2 2015 on the original capacity - not the 2 stage expansion to 950 or 1200m2. But more likely to me is that we very quickly now bring on-board another Novartis type contract from one of the many companies that have been using our Lentivector on a research licence. There are a lot of them and some will go into the clinic. I think this / these are what OXB are hinting at when they say in the results that "Our work with Novartis has enhanced our credibility in the sector and we are in discussions with a number of third parties working in a variety of cell therapy areas to provide such services and IP licences". Then later they add "Partnering revenues should continue to grow strongly in 2016" and in the outlook they say that "we plan to advance our integrated business through a number of inflection points." To me that says another manufacturing partner is in the wings - and I remember what share price we went from and to following the Novartis deal. This also fits with the idea of a small agreed placing to get us to a certain point (which seemed a very precise sum) prior to a much bigger open offer at a much higher price - possibly to get rid of the Oberland loan facility and clear the decks of the manufacturing expansion costs. Whether it's a large increase in manufacturing earnings from Novartis or another manufacturing partner / new partners - or both - it doesn't really matter to me. Hoping for both doesn't seem to be unrealistic.
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