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Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads
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|Thanks Marcus Understood|
|For everyone`s benefit, on good authority.|
I think that answer is yes, in that you can click my name and choose the send message option. But there's no need to do that and it just leaves everyone else in suspense which isn't really on.
I'm happy to know that you have a good reason that you're not really comfortable mentioning on here and to leave it at that.
My expectations of the publication in the next 3 weeks had become hopes of late. I'll put it as something for the new year now.|
harry s truman
|Just wait and see then Marcus, but it certainly seems very positive.
If you don't mind me asking, have you heard something to the effect that TroVax data for the SKOPOS trial will now be published next year or is it just your gut feeling given the time left this year?|
harry s truman
|Yes and I am sure the FDA have all that recent info already. We get to hear about it on Sat. Clinical efficacy with CTL019 in multiplemyeloma
To me that says excellent overall results with a very high success rate in the children that they were able to treat (great news) but is the last paragraph regarding the the 50 patients for the 25 global sites the relevant bit regarding what they will submit with the BLA?|
harry s truman
|Conclusion: CTL019 manufacturing and administration post-ASCT is safe and feasible in patients with advanced MM. Correlation of PFS with CTL019 frequency in BM and prolonged PFS in 3 subjects is suggestive of clinical efficacy. A phase-two study of CTL019 using a 10-fold higher dose after first-line ASCT in high-risk MM patients is ongoing.|
|It's a very fair point Pram, and now that you've mentioned it again I do recollect you telling us that at the time.
Perhaps I'd subconsciously filed that under "expensive American medicine" or similar, but I do understand what you are saying.
I imagine that you also appreciate that I'm wedded to TroVax too - for better or worse.
Let me clarify (before anyone asks) that I'm referring to TroVax the drug and not trovax the contributor to this BB.
On the bright side, Marcus hasn't exposed me as a double agent yet ;)
Anyway, onwards and upwards. Reality now is that regardless of what OXB have said they will get out by the end of the year, it's 3 weeks and 2 days and then that's it. There will be nothing between xmas and new year.
You never know what might come, but it seems a bit unlikely to me that the Welsh trial centre has been waiting for the Christmas issue to publish the trial results, so I would tend to agree with Marcus's wink and nudge about 2016 now stretching into next year...|
harry s truman
|Just one small point Mr President Sir. You seem to be equating the low cost of NHS trialling with what it might have cost OXB.
I remember reporting what the Non-ex (whose name I cannot now recall) told me about what these venal hospital managers charge per patient on a trial. It dwarfs all other costs. 000's of dollars or pounds per patient. I am not sure how it is justified but I understand it is 'normal'.|
|Bletchley Park, very good. At least we have Kim Pram Philby on the inside now and I can acquire an Enigma machine from a chap in Nelson Mandela House so things are looking up!|
|Mr President Sir,
Re: Trovax. It is hard to see what else JD could have done with Trovax other than 'seed it' with 3rd party trials and hope?
After the Trist failure WE didn't have the cash, Sanofi didn't want to try anything else and who would show interest in a 'failed' trial candidate when there are so many more interesting developments around?
There may (or may not) have been simple logical reasons for the Trist failure, whether we are talking cheating at a large centre (no-one wants to even think about that it seems), or a simple blood test to determine the best patients, but it doesn't seem to matter to pharma.|
|Harry Yes indeed. Once something big works management responsibility is transferred to the new big pharma owner and all 'minor' hassles forgotten. But oxb is far from that situation and the Diggles, great guys though they seem to be, don't seem to recognise that a long overdue change of leadership at CEO level in oxb is a necessary requisite for a transformational change in oxb's strategic fortunes. This strikes me frankly as being weak. In addition to the failing Proteome have a look at another Diggle investment Chronos therapeutics.|
|AT 46 mins; he uses Farms and real estate for steady income to invest in bios which he says if they get it right can make an outsize fortune, enormous multiples of 10, 50 times.
Which US bio do you think he is referring to?
voyager therapeutics maybe ?|
He does touch on that in the interview and says words to the effect that it is the reason that either he or his brother sit on the boards and play an active part with advice and guidance. Interestingly he says that scientists are usually focussed on the science and on being remembered for what they did (rather than the goal of bonuses and monetary reward) - and that often that drive works out quite well for the business.
If what happens with OXB is what he suggests is likely - i.e. they come good with one big valuable drug and quickly get taken out by a large pharma with a huge war chest and depleting patent life of existing licensed drugs, then OXB would no longer need an executive board at Oxford as those decisions would no longer be decisions applicable to a regional subsidiary. Perhaps that is something that they also consider with regard to trying to change management for essentially a short service commission.
Interesting to hear the comparison with the US / UK - not just with regard to valuations, but also cash-burn. He mentioned one US Biotech company (I'm sure Marcus will have picked up on this too) of similar size to OXB where the spend equates to $1m per year per employee.|
harry s truman
|I have followed the Diggles for some time. They are passionate about biotechs. Their weakness is not sorting out deficient management - look at Proteome and perhaps.....OXB.|
Yes I listened and I thought it was a very interesting interview. I've never seen that website before but it's one that I will bookmark for the future.
Always good to listen to someone who is obviously smart and successful.
Have to be honest and say that I missed the part where he said he was looking for a 10x return on his investment.
That said, there were a few standout points for me. First was that his banker for Vulpes is German residential property. After listening to him explain the benefits to investors from that part of his fund (double digit returns) and the barriers of the market to people who can't buy in with a portfolio of 1,500+ apartments, I was seriously wondering what the minimum unit size is in the Vulpes funds.
I've got a few quid and he makes a very compelling case, but often the minimum investment for these types of things is prohibitively high - too many eggs in one basket for ordinary investors - and also based out of reach of our regulators. If OXB (which is my risk investment) did get taken out in a big way then I'd certainly look at that as a possible way to get a piece of that and also become exposed to all the other Bios that Vulpes own large stakes in - remembering his opinion that the future for all small Bios is to end up part of large Pharma.
It was interesting and I'm pleased that I listened, but he does make some points that we should all know already - i.e. that the downside for a biotech development company is zero - you have to be prepared to lose it all in exchange for the chance that it may hit the jackpot - and this is from a man with a $100m stake in the game.
He said nice things about CAR-T and particularly ProSavin, which made me wonder why he didn't offer to fund that trial in exchange for 1% of the royalties on success (he could certainly afford to) but there you go.
Thank you for putting up the link. I agree with him that this is a wonderful time to be invested in this kind of science (particularly if you pick a winner) and I also enjoyed the thoughts on politics at the end. But as this is neither the golf club or the dog and duck, we will leave that for a safe space.|
harry s truman
|Did you listen to Diggle Harry? Impressive guy. He is looking to X 10 his investment.
I think both trials in Trovax will be reporting in the new year. Add to that CTL019 submission and hopefully 2017 will at last be an excellent year for patients and us.|
|Well another good deal announcement tomorrow may get us down to .03p !|