|Thanks Steelwatch. - Every little helps ...|
|A sign maybe?
Tungsten - APT European prices $191-200/mtu vs $187-198/mtu|
|Looks China going to spend $115 billion on new railways... And loads of new stations.... all helps.|
|Recent article on Bloomberg stating that optimism in the Oil and Gas sector is now at its highest level in the last 2 1/2 years.Provided OPEC + non opec nations can hold it together then the price of oil should climb above 60$ in 2017, perhaps even breach 70 $.That's not to say 2017 will see a explosion of activity in exploration and drilling (which uses tungsten) but the oil companies should recommence capital spending in 2018.Existing oil fields continue to decline every year, global oil demand has so far held up so new projects will have to started if a major oil crunch is to averted in the next 5 years.Provided nothing else happens (WWIII, or some nation getting trumped), Ormonde could be coming stream just when demand starts to seriously ramp up.Here's hoping!|
|Tungsten outlook 2017
Looking ahead to 2017, a price recovery and increase in demand appears to be in the cards for the tungsten market, particularly in China. Metal Bulletin projects tungsten concentrate prices in China to sit between 75,000 and 80,000 yuan per ton in 2017–which is higher than the 2016 average.
In the publication, Zhu Xiusheng, chief advisor at Ganzhou Grand Sea W&Mo Group said, “The market still has a lot of inventory, like the stocks bought by the state-owned assets supervision and administration commission of the State Council (SASAC), as well as the stocks at Minmetals and Fanya; costs of all these cargoes are high, some even higher than 90,000 yuan [per tonne].
That said, Almonty Industries (TSXV:AII) announced in November that it had entered into a number of one-year fixed prices for tungsten concentrate for $210 MTU, which are effective as of January 1, 2017.
Lewis Black, president and CEO of Almonty Industries appeared hopeful about the industry moving towards a fixed price.
“We fully expect the rest of the industry to move to a negotiated fixed price contract environment due to the continued limited availability of tungsten concentrate in the spot market and the ongoing illiquidity of the current pricing mechanisms,” he said in the release.
While it seems as though a price recovery is in the works for the tungsten market, it may take some time to come into play.
As noted by PR Newswire, “the intrinsic importance of tungsten to industrial applications will ensure that the sector recovers, however; it is a question of not if, but when.”
That said, investors will have to wait and see for themselves how the market unfolds in 2017.|
|Tried to post just there but lost it somehow. Was wondering why the new application by the car and motorbike industry to mix chrome with tungsten has NT happened.that would be a huge help to the price of tungsten|
|I agree no sense in producing unless there is a profit and better to wait until margins are higher. The time frame to next December may not be enough to see the market change so more patience required but probably the safest route. Given the flexibility between the partners there may even be scope for this to change again should the tungsten picture show rapid improvement.
The crude oil price vs new project investment is an interesting area to look at. A guide figure for significant new project work seems to be around $70, so expect some change in tungsten should oil improve further.
Another area to monitor is specialist manufacturers of tungsten based products, these also help gauge pricing direction.
I have been watching Hardide HDD they produce tungsten Carbide Coatings. Demand in aerospace and precision engineering markets seems to be improving whilst oil and gas activity is low but shows signs of recovery. I'm not invested just watching for their tungsten Market commentary.The current share price is low as would be expected.
Below is a recent article on minor metals reviewing 2016 and giving some forward commentary on 2017. There is a section on Tungsten if interested. Unfortunately I can never post the links properly, but worth a quick look between Christmas drinks.
So again have a great time over the holidays !|
|Indeed why produce at a loss, unless one wants to rack up more debt?Mixed bag here, but positive in that the land issue is sorted, there is obviously flexibility in the joint venture again also positive.Tungsten is moving up, as is oil prices but there is a lag between crude oil prices and new projects commencing. I think 2017 will see the lowest number of capital spending in the energy industry in a decade or more.Happy Christmas to one and all, may you all have a pleasant and memorable time with family and friends!|
|No point producing at a price that gives no profit to the company...why produce for nothing?
Better to wait a bit longer to see better prices.
Merry Christmas to all on here.|
|I suppose it was inevitable given the tungsten price weakness so the asset stays in the ground a bit longer! Ba Humbug!|
|Disappointing news today, but fully understandable in the current price environment. This time the year after next then Rodney!
|Cheers 12vic and all the best to you and all others on here.
Hopefully this time next year ORM will be producing the long awaited tungsten and selling it at 300+!!|
|So the announcement from Aurum we all expected - the key part for ORM an intention from Aurum to divest itself of all its mining assets. This includes both the joint venture Gold projects with Ormonde a 56.5% interest in the Pino de Oro project in Zamora Province and a 51.4% interest in the Peralonso and Cabeza projects in Salamanca Province. Interestingly there is also a seperately held 20% of the Morille tungsten project ( this is outside of any agreement with Ormonde).
A possible move might be some form of buyback maybe including the Morille project but I doubt Orm would have the cash unless Aurum are simply looking to drop out and reduce any maintenance costs. The position might be different if the Saloro group as a whole had an interest in these projects.
As much as this may present an opportunity I'd imagine this type of deal is outside the current focus with all hands on Barruecopardo.
A bit about Morille
Merry Christmas and a happy new year to followers of Orm !|
|Tungsten - APT European prices $182-200/mtu vs $183-195/mtu – price range widens suggesting more poor quality material in the market.
Probably out of China and due to recent falls in the Chinese currency increasing its local value.|
|Interesting article about India's state run mining company NMDC trying to purchase tungsten assets outside of the country. Focus is on mines in production or projects where BFS are completed.
|Sorry forgot to say not a holder in Almonty just follow them through the tungsten sector as a result of my interest in Orm and the previous takeover attempt from early 2015.|
|Thanks for posting steelwatch, very interesting , the offtakers must tend to a future rise in the market given their commitment above current pricing. Remains to be seen who has the better deal here, Almonty have at least achieved some operational security albeit at potential loss of greater profit.
Big indicator is that the offtakers see value in the product above the current market spot - so looks like room for movement going forward.|
|See Almonty had trading suspended yesterday and now are up 25%.
Not sure what the news is there ?|
|There is a lot of crazy things happening in the markets and politically across the world these times. An awful lot does not seem to make sense anymore! Companies whose share price defy gravity based on future growth are doing well, other companies who are profitable, their share price is on the floor etc. All mixed up etc!
All forecasters seem to have cloudy crystal balls, from Brexit to Trump and whatever next.
I was reading a interesting article by the CEO of some oil company, can't remember who it was or where the link is, but it gave me a bit of hope. A brief abstract here
World demand for crude oil has continued to slowly increase by about 1% - 1.5% per year despite all the uncertainty. Daily crude oil usage is around 96 or 97 million barrels / day.
Existing oil fields / reservoirs which are currently in production tend to decrease at around 3% / year.
So all things being equal.... there is a gap of 4% to 4.5% / year. Given enough time the gap continues to get bigger.
Very few major oil projects came on stream in 2015, and even less in 2016. Hence demand for tungsten (drilling bits and tools etc) is down. (on that topic Seeking Alpha had a article of Weatherford, basically saying they are 4 billion in the red and technically insolvent).
However given enough time, the gap of 4.5% will continue to eat into the global excess of crude over the next couple of years, until a major crunch occurs. Boom or bust economics for crude, which we never seem to be able to get right.
It is entirely possible that Ormonde starting to produce in late 2017 / early 2018 could be coming on stream at a very good time (possible).
On the other hand, the FT (25th-11-2016)has a article about Japan restarting some Nuclear plants, which will depress the importation of hydrocarbons, which could reduce the gap.
It's still very uncertain, but the crunch in crude is coming, only a matter of when.
On the other hand, banks have lost a lot of money with oil exploration companies / drilling companies / oil field service companies etc, so even if there is a shortage of crude, various companies may not be able to get the finance to start drilling new prospects.
It's too easy to overthink it.
However I am optimistic, that Ormonde will do o.k. for the first few years of W production, but then should change into a roaring success later on when demand really kicks off.
All barring a global recession or W.W.III etc.|
|Hopefully we are now within 12 months of production commencement and with a rising tungsten price and no funding problems the share price should also rise in 2017.|
|Terropol you are right, but if I find the chance to get back in below my average 1.6p then the struggle will resume.
BTW a small bit of Tungsten commentary 24/11
"Tungsten - APT European prices $198-203/mtu vs $198-203/mtu unch last week – boringly unchanged. Price will have to start rising sometime soon if Trump goes for growth."|
|12vic , in this game discipline is very very important.
That is the only way to survive in this jungle....|
|Agreed!I'd be in for a lot more myself only that I got some personal debts which require clearing over the next 12 months.I mentioned this months ago, and I succeeded in clearing some debt, only to be told it's not enough, I've got to clear more. I feel like I'm being bullied at times, being told what to do especially with the share price being attractive as it is and I cannot increase my holdings so as to leverage down.2017 will tell a lot for ORM and Tungsten. But I'm still in and optimistic for ORMs future!Tally ho!|
|A few more for me here today...
Tungsten should start moving soon...copper and other metals on a good run up.
2017 should be the busy year for the company building the mine.
Shares will not be available at this low level for to long.
Now is the time to get in!|