Nb Distressed Debt Inves... Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 10/2/2017 07:31

92% invested at end Dec'16 & this Extract from today’s Qtly portfolio update suggests fully invested at end Mar'17:

“We continue to evaluate and bid on what we believe to be attractive investment opportunities in the real estate, lodging and casinos, shipping, international infrastructure and energy sectors, and expect to be fully invested by the end of the first quarter of 2017. We remain confident about the investments in the portfolio and the ability to generate positive returns from the current valuations.”

[tiltonboy] 09/2/2017 11:34

Only 7 weeks to go until they can't invest our money.

Roll on the distributions!

[stemis] 09/2/2017 11:16

NBGD NAV 8 Feb 94.44p

[tiltonboy] 14/1/2017 09:36

I'm waiting for the Q4 factsheet before I decide my course of action. Having predominantly bought stock at or near the lows, I may ease a few out as the price rises, and if I have a perceived better idea.

I think $1.10 should be conservative, and only time will tell how much they got wrong.

[tiltonboy] 13/1/2017 21:57

They were coy when questioned, and used the phrase "we can't lose any more" I found them evasive, and I wouldn't touch the Managers with a bargepole again.

[skyship] 13/1/2017 17:16

Tilts - stats extracted from the qtly factsheets show the following Oil&Gas valuations:

# Sep'15 - £8.15m
# Dec'15 - £5.3m + talk of writedowns - see below
# Mar'16 - £6.78m
# Jun'16 - £9.34m + talk of £1.5m upward revaluations
# Sep'16 - £9.67m

What we don't know is what part of the increase in 2016 was down to purchases; but it could well be that the O&G position is not as bad as we may have thought.

What final value do you now think may be achieved here? I'm looking for 110p by Dec'19 for a GRY of 10.65% @ 81.5p.

===============================================================================

NBDG's NAV was impacted during the quarter by significant gains/losses in energy and utilities, post reorganisation equities and infrastructure investments. Significant events were:

-- Exploration & Production (E&P) investments were negatively impacted by further declines in underlying commodity prices. WTI oil prices were down approximately 18% during the fourth quarter while the Henry Hub (US Benchmark) natural gas prices fell approximately 7%. Unlike other sectors in the portfolio that have been marked down and we expect to recover, some portion of this decline could be permanent.

[tiltonboy] 13/1/2017 14:27

I wonder if they can get anything back on the O&G debt, following the recovery in markets. This is an area where they really messed up big style, and will tarnish them.

[skyship] 13/1/2017 13:25

Interesting to note that the only buybacks recently have been of the Extended Life stock; perhaps no NBDG available. As Tilts has previously stated, the Market is likely to be short, so even a small 5k buyer lifts the price.

With the NAV at 96.54p; the discount at 16% and the end of the Investment Period just 11weeks away, we could soon be hitting the middle of these three purple lines:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[tiltonboy] 10/1/2017 19:31

NAV now over 96p, aided by sterling weakness. Not that I'm counting, but only 11 weeks left of investing for the Managers. Lets get the returns back in short order.

Can't see them coming back with another fund after this shambles

[madmix] 23/11/2016 11:02

Added 5k myself, but had to place a limit order - not much free stock about.

[redhill9] 23/11/2016 09:48

Sterling strength will probably knock it back a little tomorrow.

Yes, latest figure of 93.42p but considering still possible to buy around 79.6p this morning continues to be an interesting buy.

[tiltonboy] 22/11/2016 11:54

...and only just over four months until harvest!

[skyship] 22/11/2016 09:23

Yikes....thought that 95p must have been a typo for the 93p I posted earlier in the day; but no - 95p and change it is. As you say; must have been some good portfolio news.

I admit now I sold a few just ahead or after the US presidential elections - 77p I think it was. So missed the divi, then bought them back at 78.3p. Pleased to be back up to a 14% allocation.

[tiltonboy] 21/11/2016 22:49

Must be some portfolio news to take the NAV up to 95p. Sterling strength will probably knock it back a little tomorrow.

[skyship] 21/11/2016 07:38

NAV marches on - now at 93p
===========================

18 Nov 2016 - Net Asset Value Per Share

NB Distressed Debt Investment Fund Limited announces the following unaudited, estimated net asset values per share as at 17 Nov 2016:

Extended Life Share USD 1.0032
Ordinary Share USD 1.0452
New Global Share GBP 0.9303

[jimcar] 10/11/2016 11:11

Any ideas on how this might be affected by higher inflation in the US?

[skyship] 10/11/2016 11:00

XD 1.02p today

[skyship] 02/11/2016 10:12

carcosa - thnx for reminding me of that - yes, P67 says it all for hosede...

[carcosa] 02/11/2016 07:20

Hosede, also see page 67 onwards: hxxp://www.nbddif.com/pdf/NBDDIF-Global-Share-Prospectus-2014.pdf

[skyship] 02/11/2016 07:10

Hosede - These links should answer your questions:

[hosede] 01/11/2016 18:31

SKYSHIP
But if debt is secured - on assets of some sort - how is it distressed. I assumed the distressed debt was bought at huge discounts from lenders who wanted to "crystallise their losses.

[skyship] 01/11/2016 17:20

Tilts - "If they really think they can get 20% returns on the portfolio I will be well happy."

Absolutely. Surely a no risk return of 17%+ from their own stock has to be a no brainer compared to new investments. But as you say, 20%+ from elsewhere most acceptable if less than a 3yr timescale.

[skyship] 01/11/2016 17:17

hosede - with secured debt a company failure can perversely be an advantage as you secure 100% return of capital in advance of maturity. I understand their portfolio to be of private offerings, not listed. The values naturally increase toward redemption, cancelling out the Mark-to-Market discounts.

Tilts - anything to add/correct?

[tiltonboy] 01/11/2016 08:04

Of course they will be fully invested by Q1 2017, even though the best investment should be their own shares. If they really think they can get 20% returns on the portfolio I will be well happy.

I have a few questions to ask them next week.