Nb Distressed Debt Inves... Share Discussion Threads

[redhill9] 02/3/2018 12:56

hindsight, in my post I'm assuming that distributing 50-60% of NAV in 2018 would mean the same percentage of shares held being cancelled, although I realise the RNS didn't spell out the actual mechanism.

However I don't think it makes any difference to the underlying point about the markets' perceived value if they were to make a distribution of that proportion of NAV without cancelling any shares.

Juts to clarify, the point I was making is that the market (as reflected in the sp) doesn't seem to believe that distributions will be made as announced in the November RNS viz. "......we expect to distribute 50-60% of current Net Asset Value ("NAV") in 2018, 35-40% in 2019, and the remainder in 2020.current NAV" (or is applying a high risk factor to that event).

[hindsight] 02/3/2018 12:39

The stated intention is to distribute "50-60% of current NAV" in the current year - receiving c.92p within 10 months

Im a bit confussed redhill9. The stated nav is 92p so 50%/60% is ~51p

[redhill9] 02/3/2018 09:43

The share price has been suggesting for some time that the published NAV may turn out to be rather optimistic when it comes to distributions.

The stated intention is to distribute "50-60% of current NAV" in the current year - receiving c.92p within 10 months for shares currently worth 76p sounds good by itself, but what will the residual 40-50% be worth? Assuming distribution of 50%, the current share price is suggesting no more than around 72p (and that's assuming the NAV holds up)

I'm continuing to hold for now but am not greatly optimistic of any exciting return.

[tiltonboy] 01/3/2018 22:17

Looks like there must have been some writedowns given NAV growth has not been matched by the fall in GBP.

[hindsight] 24/1/2018 12:28

Think its clear the value loss on fx lately. But will the US money volocity from the corpoate tax cuts being partly paid to staff increase these type of assets pnl and so value

[tiltonboy] 24/1/2018 10:25

Good luck on that one!

[skyship] 24/1/2018 10:15

I've emailed the Chairman for an explanation...

[skyship] 24/1/2018 10:09

Tilts - no, not just that - the words above state:

"..are calculated on a gross basis and, in particular, do not reflect the Investment Manager's management fee..."

So actually, the statement is pretty irrelevant if one cannot define the difference between Gross & Net!

[tiltonboy] 24/1/2018 09:57

They do not include Fees!

[skyship] 24/1/2018 09:34

"Shareholders should, however, note that: (i) the realisable values of the investments are calculated on a gross basis"

Does anyone have a clue as to what that might mean?

[skyship] 24/1/2018 08:20

This is the nub of the matter which needs to be unravelled:
===========================================================

Manager Commentary:

NBDG is in the harvest period and the Investment Manager is working to restructure, reorganise, and realise exits for each investment to maximise the value of the portfolio for the shareholders.
The Investment Manager uses economic, industry and issuer specific data to estimate the gross realisable value in downside, base case and upside scenarios for each investment in the portfolio. The Investment Manager currently estimates the range of the aggregated realisable value for the investments in the portfolio is between 90% and 166% of the 2017 year-end market values of these investments, with a base case of 129%. Shareholders should, however, note that: (i) the realisable values of the investments are calculated on a gross basis and, in particular, do not reflect the Investment Manager's management fee and investment-related expenses; and (ii) this range of aggregate realisable values is an estimate only, and there is no guarantee that the value actually realised will be within this range. Further details on the risks relating to "forward looking information" are set out at the end of this factsheet.

Management currently expects to distribute 60-65% of remaining NAV to shareholders in 2018, 30-35% in 2019, and the remainder in 2020. The Investment Manager will review and, where appropriate, update these ranges and expectations in the quarterly factsheets going forward.

[my retirement fund] 13/1/2018 17:02

Lots of Casinos and hotels to get rid of - I wonder if the Mafia would be interested in any of it ?

[tiltonboy] 13/1/2018 13:30

Interesting that the NAV has risen a little given the strength in GBP v USD. Looks like there has been a mark-up of some positions. Hopefully news of some disposals soon.

[skyship] 13/1/2018 12:45

Looks as though a breakout should come soon; perhaps instigated by the rising NAV - 93.8p as at 11th Jan'18, so discount back up to 15.5%:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[redhill9] 20/11/2017 17:54

SP has moved up a little over the last week, both before and after the RNS ;} but the market reaction seems more subdued than I'd have guessed. We've moved from a situation of expecting distributions to start to having it confirmed with a seemingly fairly firm timescale which, assuming distribution at the current NAV, would indicate a not-to-be-sneezed-at yield at the current share price

A lot depends of course on whether the NAV turns out to be realistic and there aren't any nasty shocks on asset realisation. The published NAV figure has been in a tight range for quite a while it seems and I'm not sure whether I find that reassuring or suspicious!

[skyship] 20/11/2017 17:41

Over on the LemonFool site HiRiskPaul has alerted me to the fact that at the moment NBDX trades at a wider NAV discount than NBDG! 17% v. 14%.

The chart of course highlights the post Brexit NBDG on steroids - quoted in £Sterling rather than $.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 20/11/2017 15:49

The Board of the Company is pleased to announce an income distribution by way of a dividend of $0.0140 per Ordinary Share, $0.0245 per Extended Life Share and £0.0106 per New Global Share (collectively the "Share Classes") to be payable on 12 January 2018 to shareholders on the register of the Share Classes as at the close of business on 1 December 2017.

The dividend timetable is set out below:


Ex-dividend date - 30 November 2017

Dividend record date - 1 December 2017

Dividend payment date - 12 January 2018

[tiltonboy] 16/11/2017 10:20

redhill,

Absolutely. I was just pointing out to SKYSHIP that it isn't all debt.

[skyship] 16/11/2017 09:36

Quite right - good point

[redhill9] 16/11/2017 09:35

tiltonboy, isn't that what we might expect during a period of realisation of debt assets, that some debt converts to equity?

The returns from here based on distributing current NAV over the stated period don't look an unappealing risk/reward to me.

[tiltonboy] 16/11/2017 09:03

SKYSHIP,

A lot of what they own is now equity!

[skyship] 16/11/2017 07:49

To put matters into context, these GRYs apply from the offer price of 78.5p assuming payouts to 31/12/19:

# Payout at par (100p) - GRY = 12.08%

# Payout at a pretty disgraceful 95p - GRY = 9.41%

If they still manage to reach a premium; which really should be built-in to the terms of most of the loans, then:

# Payout at 105p - GRY = 14.69%

[skyship] 16/11/2017 07:39

Need to read the rest of the detail; but this opening remark is massively encouraging - true guidance - c90% of NAV distributed over the next 2yrs:

Manager Commentary
On 31 March 2017, the portfolio ended the investment period and entered its harvest period. In the harvest period the Investment Manager works to restructure, reorganise and reposition the assets in order to maximise the intrinsic value. Although the actual time and realisation values are uncertain as of now, based on our current analysis we expect to distribute 50-60% of current Net Asset Value ("NAV") in 2018, 35-40% in 2019, and the remainder in 2020

[skyship] 05/11/2017 15:07

NAV at 02/11/17 = 94.10p. With the weak £ I would have thought it should have been a little higher - perhaps some valuation weakness in the portfolio.

The Quarterly Update might reveal something - should be due this coming week.