Nb Distressed Debt Inves... Share Discussion Threads

[courant] 12/1/2016 08:30

Fair enough!

[jonwig] 12/1/2016 07:12

Here's their policy on buybacks ... maybe!

The investment period for the New Global Shares has approximately 15 months remaining and during this time the Company intends to use available cash resources to reach a balance between taking advantage of attractive market opportunities and undertaking share buybacks, to address any imbalance between the supply of and demand for such shares.

[jonwig] 06/1/2016 06:47

Courant, that's right. And on 18 Nov they wrote:

"we believe that the opportunity set in distressed debt and post-reorganisation securities of companies with tangible assets remains robust,..."

That's been their refrain for some time.

[courant] 05/1/2016 21:26

SKYSHIP,

Not sure that buybacks would necessarily be starting again - depends on the scale of the market opportunity being presented by distressed asset sales. I'd rather no buy-backs took place and attractive investments were made instead (if possible!). The potential here isn't just the closing of the discount to the mark-to-market prices, it's the full realisation of their portfolio at attractive rates of return (i.e. hoping for final NAV north of 100p!).

Regards,

Courant

[my retirement fund] 05/1/2016 16:14

13% of the fund is in oil and gas, could be a few defaults going forward

[skyship] 05/1/2016 12:12

100k taken out @ 63.5p at the close yesterday. Hope that proves to be the resumption of the buybacks...

[skyship] 05/1/2016 08:29

These are the recent NAV stats:

18/12: 73.55p
21/12: 73.65p
22/12: 73.76p
24/12: 73.25p
29/12: 73.97p
31/12: 74.59p

Surely looks as though the fall has found a supportable level.

If so, then the offer price of 63.5p has to be a real bargain. The discount = 14.9% versus the target of just 5%. IMO buybacks will resume pretty soon and if the NAV does hold, then these will soon be back up to the 69p/70p level.

[my retirement fund] 30/12/2015 13:00

Watching and waiting.

[badtime] 30/12/2015 10:02

Sky .....Bought some yesterday at yur price

[leonasdad] 29/12/2015 14:40

octane rush
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[skyship] 29/12/2015 14:38

Added at 63.5p - discount surely now too wide at 13.75%...

[skyship] 17/12/2015 07:32

Thnx Tilts - Happy Hols - wishing you and the family well...

[tiltonboy] 16/12/2015 18:25

SKYSHIP,

When I get back from my jollies, I will be pressing the managers for more information; I am particularly interested in the maturity of the debt instruments they are invested in.

If this is purely mark to market falls in NAV, rather than the inability to pay principal plus interest, then this could be one of those occasional opportunities.

To not return north of 100p, would suggest they have some problem child's. They were pretty relaxed on their O & G exposure when I met them, but I'm sure a recovery in the oil price would be welcome.

[skyship] 16/12/2015 17:47

Yesterday's NAV was 73.4p. So at the offer price of 65.3p the discount is once again up to 11%.

I bought some back yesterday and today as I feel that they are likely to be back in with the buybacks in the New Year.

With the stock in run-off mode from Mar'17, I suspect a 30th Sept'20 redemption date at par would be supremely conservative in both sum and time. The other equity classes started repayments very soon after the run-off date.

100p at 30/09/20 = a GRY of 9.3%
100p at 30/09/19 = a GRY of 11.9%

Tilts - do you still think an above par pay-out is still the most likely outcome?

[courant] 16/12/2015 13:45

Relatedly, having done well out of the shipping sector some years ago, I took another quick peek at Goldenport this morning, reminded by the comment in NBDG's last factsheet that they'd taken over a couple of ships as a result of a shipping company going pop. Boy, has GPRT been hammered! It's arguable whether there's any equity left and if they can't generate enough cash from operations and asset sales, then they'd go the same way. (Not saying that GPRT might not make it, just that this is a very high-risk share given the current operating environment.) Indicative of the kind of distressed opportunities that might be coming up.

FT comment:

[tiltonboy] 16/12/2015 12:25

Interesting comment:

[courant] 15/12/2015 15:16

Well, I've just bought a small amount of NBDG today (broker was initially being stupid!). The key risk here appears to be if the managers assumptions about final valuations are blown out of the water by economic conditions (e.g. extremely low oil prices) - in the meantime, the falling mark-to-market valuations serve to boost investor returns from this level. I expect volatility (these are in my SIPP so happy to ride this out!) but the discount and low prices serves to limit ultimate downside risk here.

I like tanking sectors and the smell of fear in the markets!

[skyship] 15/12/2015 14:46

There are currently a considerable number of articles on the problems in the debt markets. IMO the inference from these articles is that no matter which section of the debt market you look at, the overall move is to falling prices, higher yields, increasing spreads. With the mark-to-market requirements, fund prices will fall and opportunities will appear.

ACD, CIFU, DREF, NBDD, NBDG, VTA etc have already fallen and may be nearing attractive buy levels.

Courant - unfortunately I held a high allocation higher up (avge 73.5p). Sold 2/3rds as it dropped through 70p for the 2nd time; now looking to buy those back. Too soon? Perhaps - no idea really; but the 10% discount provides a cushion!
=====================================================================

Chaos in the debt markets as Third Avenue liquidates:



Could be opportunities for cheap stock soon - as GS suggest:

[jonwig] 15/12/2015 07:06

This is a start, at least:

In light of ongoing market conditions in the distressed debt sector and potential year end purchasing opportunities, the board of the Company (the "Board") is reviewing its buyback programme, during which time the Company does not intend to undertake further market purchases of New Global Shares until further notice. The Board will continue to review the buyback programme as market conditions develop.

[courant] 14/12/2015 18:13

Hi SKYSHIP,

Do you hold here? Becoming seriously interested in this area given recent newsflow (though I suspect things will get worse before they get better!). Quick question... assuming you do hold, did you have any issues trading? I've traded SFM/SETSqx shares before but this time my main broker is saying they won't deal in NBDG - I've escalated my query, as I suspect a bit of "too difficult to work out" on the customer service guy's behalf. Any insight appreciated!

Otherwise I agree with the basic analysis, this looks like an attractive long-term play and with mark-to-market pricing as it currently is, and the potential for other cheap assets coming for sale, this is likely a good time to buy.

Also check out DWCG - has issues (namely the fees/performance fees) but does special situation credit investing on a bigger/broader scale, with gearing via derivatives (not necessarily a good thing - prefer the straightforward focus of NBDG!). Getting close to a 15% discount.

Cheers,

Cournat

[leedsu36] 14/12/2015 04:20

A couple of friends of mine heavily researched a new buy and build that was about to begin by two experts in their field Ian Smith and Tony Weaver (Accumuli,Capita etc etc etc fame) ctp I bought into @ 0.6p they stand today @ 83p ...not a bad gamble even if I say so myself (although I did know they have a proven track record of course)

I bought into their own merchant bank MXCP @ 0.7p currently at 3.2p (terrible gamble I suppose)

I then followed them again as they moved in and invested £millions of their own cash into PINN and I got in @ 6p...it's been a long wait but my gamble has paid off PINN currently 11p

They are currently advising CSI a cash shell with £22m in cash where to go with it and we're hoping they carry on with their tech business model,there are rumours of Nasdaq listing amongst a lot of other rumours,

Anyway I'm following them again because over the last few years they've turned my gamble to close on £850,000,now admittedly I'm a gambler,but I like to think I know a good thing when I see it,now please look at your own choice of shares and their recent graphs.

[skyship] 12/12/2015 12:23

"...but the daily NAVs, etc. are still being announced."

Yes, over on NBDD.

[jonwig] 12/12/2015 09:15

14% in cash should help, but a substantial exposure to O&G (presumably frackers) won't.

The ADVFN news in theheader seems to have stopped updating, but the daily NAVs, etc. are still being announced.

Maybe they should pause share buybacks if there are so many opportunities arising?

[skyship] 27/11/2015 09:25

NAV seems to have stabilised somewhat - yesterday's stat shows 76.69p. Another buyback announced this morning:

27 November 2015

NB Distressed Debt Investment Fund Limited

Transaction in Own Shares

The Company announces that pursuant to the general authority granted by shareholders of the Company on 4 June 2015 to make market purchases of its own New Global ordinary share capital ("New Global Shares"), it repurchased 100,000 New Global Shares at a price of 70.25 pence per New Global Share, to be held in Treasury, on 26 November 2015.