Nb Distressed Debt Inves... Share Discussion Threads

[tiltonboy] 15/11/2018 22:31

Don't trust them at all. Might consider a punt if they drift back below 80p.

[skyship] 15/11/2018 13:12

Hi Tilts - agreed, horrendous. However @ 86.5p I believe there is a likelihood of at least 10% upside over the next 12months.

[tiltonboy] 15/11/2018 08:53

What an absolute shambles. Glad I got out.

[tiltonboy] 09/8/2018 12:15

I'm out. Good luck to all that remain.

[tiltonboy] 08/8/2018 07:36

What an absolute disgrace these lot are. A litany of losses, mark-downs, and delays.

I bet they still draw their fees!

[tiltonboy] 03/8/2018 14:59

redhill,

I've been top-slicing/selling from 85p upwards. The two distributions give me a better average price, and a few less to sell into the market.

I might well look back, and say I should have let it run, but I'm delighted to sell as we stand at the moment.

[redhill9] 03/8/2018 14:22

Thanks Skyship for clarification. It was still only 50k shares at 89p so I'd still contend that the one buyback in the current year has no relevance to the recent share price gains.

tiltonboy, agreed re prospect of GRV of 126p being a tough ask, and also the fortuitous impact of currency movements, but being realistic wouldn't anything over, say, 105p from here be very acceptable? Again I'd emphasise I'm ignoring the longer history and performance of NBDG (as that was before my investment in the share) and just looking at what I paid, where we are now, and what might (reasonably) be achievable.

[skyship] 03/8/2018 12:36

redhill - re those buybacks - sorry, you were right - 89p not 90p

tilts - likewise was a good investment from an average in the low 70s; I just became rather disenchanted so banked good profits at c84.5p. Bt 10k back today just to have some skin in the remaining game rather than cash earning nothing.

[tiltonboy] 03/8/2018 09:56

redhill,

tbf, the vast majority of the shares I bought were in the low 70's, so it's been a good investment, but it does not excuse the inept performance of the managers, who have been fortunate in that FX has helped them out.

With 15% of the fund having been distributed (following this one)the base case for Gross Realisable Value of 126p is going to be a tough ask, implying an average distribution of 130p on the balance of the portfolio!

[redhill9] 03/8/2018 09:42

In my case, just over 2 years to turn 70p into a quid for part of my first tranche, and 9 months to turn 79p into a quid for part of my my second tranche, plus some dividends and distributions along the way, so I'm not complaining.

Still some way to go though to meet their declared distribution target for 2018 but as they haven't said in this announcement that anything in that respect has changed perhaps we should assume they still expect to meet it?

[tiltonboy] 03/8/2018 07:33

A return of capital above 100p....well done boys!

Now just remind how long has it taken to turn a quid into a quid!

[redhill9] 19/7/2018 15:30

Skyship, where do you see buy backs reported at 90p? From the website announcements I can only identify that they bought back 50k on 9 July at 89p, and I can't see they've bought back any other NBDG shares this year, so I doubt that is the reason for the share price rise.

NAV up another smidge yesterday to 102.36p, quite possibly currency driven but an increase is an increase when you're investment is Sterling based.

[tiltonboy] 18/7/2018 23:43

Stifel keep edging the price up a fraction every week, so perhaps they know something. I'm happy to sell into strength.

[skyship] 18/7/2018 21:32

"someone appears to be buying" - could that be the Co. buyback at 90p perhaps!?

[redhill9] 18/7/2018 18:07

So, in that case any thoughts on why the share price has risen by 5% over the last month while the NAV has risen only 2%? That follows a similar % rise in the share price over the previous two months. Clearly the rise in share price hasn't been solely, or even mainly, due to GBP weakness reflected in the NAV.

My point was, while you may be right in your cynicism/pessimism about the management, someone appears to be buying and presumably they don't share your views about prospects, and maybe there is progress on realisations. I could be wrong and the proposed distributions don't happen as indicated but the net market appears to (perhaps) be suggesting otherwise.

[tiltonboy] 18/7/2018 15:50

Driven by GBP weakness.

The company made 12 exits during it's investing period, yet has made none during it 15 month "harvest" period.

The company expect to return 55% of assets during 2018, yet have not achieved an exit in the first 6.5 months.

I would never accuse managers of clinging on to assets to achieve greater fees!

I think I'm pretty certain, however, that the managers will achieve a greater return than the original shareholders!

[redhill9] 18/7/2018 14:28

Watching the share price closely as it seems to have been edging steadily upwards over past few weeks on no published news, which may suggest there is unreported progress and this share price movement encourages me to continue holding. Bid now 89p compared to latest NAV of 101.78p so discount of c.12%.

[skyship] 04/7/2018 18:03

NB Distressed Debt Investment Fund Limited announces the following unaudited, estimated net asset values per share as at 03 Jul 2018:

New Global Share GBP 1.0184

[redhill9] 22/6/2018 15:21

Thanks tiltonboy, I can understand that perspective.

Agree your point about 15 months into the harvest period with little apparent movement as I'd expected things to start happening almost immediately afterwards. However didn't NBDG recently reaffirm the proposed timescale for distributions, suggesting they still think it's realistic (unless of course they're deluding themselves as well as us)?

I was fortunate enough to first encounter NBDG when the share price was in the low 70s in August 2016 and have had a gentle ride upwards since then so that may explain if I'm perhaps taking a more benevolent view of the situation than anyone who has followed the management longer term. If you and Skyship are both now sceptical then I consider that a warning to note.

[tiltonboy] 22/6/2018 13:34

redhill - the distrust towards the managers probably explains why people are willing to sell now. We are now 15 months into the harvest period, and there hasn't been one exit. Do you really think they will dispose of 50% of the portfolio in the next 6 months, or even 90% by the end of next year.

A weak GBP has been the main driver of returns!

[redhill9] 22/6/2018 11:32

I've been surprised at comments from a couple of seasoned holders that they've been selling. Surely with the intention of distributing c.90% over 2018/2019 with the balance in 2020, and such a discount to NAV as has been current for some time, these are a solid hold?

Am I missing some flaw in my thinking - other than the possibility of the NAV falling quite dramatically pre-distribution?

[tiltonboy] 22/6/2018 08:38

NAV back over a quid...Can i have my money back.

[tiltonboy] 14/6/2018 08:51

I'm letting a few go on each rise. They are 85.95p bid at the moment.

Hopefully get news of a disposal soon.

[skyship] 14/6/2018 08:13

NAV as at 12 Jun 2018: 98.61p


No, reasonable profit after the $'s good run, so happy to move on...though actually now stuck in cash as finding very little to buy...a few more VTA perhaps.

[hindsight] 07/6/2018 09:53

Just hedge the fx skyship if thats the only reason sold