Motif Bio Share Discussion Threads

[blueblood] 22/11/2016 08:44

Interesting to see a bit of volume on Nasdaq. 120k+ which is c2.5m shares

[patviera] 21/11/2016 21:26

Agreed keyaI think will be dull tomorrow and that will be the lowA lot of Stock obviously went into loose hands

[keya5000] 21/11/2016 19:22

Pat,

It hit 67p without funding earlier this year, if the next stage is successful I would think a mcap of £300m and well into a £1+ would be more than possible.

[colebrooke] 21/11/2016 19:07

Beaufort Securities notehttps://www.research-tree.com/research/breakfast-today/02c1881c-247b-4efd-8313-235a93ccd772Motif Bio, the clinical stage biopharmaceutical company specialising in developing novel antibiotics, on Friday announced the pricing of its underwritten initial public offering of 2,438,491 American Depositary Shares ('ADSs') and 1,219,246 warrants over ADSs ('ADS Warrants') at a public offering price of US$6.98 per ADS/ADS Warrant combination, before underwriting discounts and commissions ('US Offering'). In addition, Motif Bio has granted the underwriters in the US Offering an option for a period of 30 days to purchase, at the public offering price less underwriting discounts and commissions, up to an additional 292,618 ADSs and/or ADS Warrants to purchase 146,309 ADSs to cover any over-allotments. The US Offering is conditional upon the placing of at least 20,000,000 Ordinary Shares together with 10,000,000 warrants over Ordinary Shares (the 'Ordinary Share Warrants') at a placing price per Ordinary Share/Ordinary Share Warrant combination of 28 pence in a European Placement (the 'European Placing'). The Group has received indications of interest from investors which would be sufficient to satisfy this condition. The European Placement launched immediatetly following Friday's mid-day confirmatory announcement. Each ADS represents 20 Ordinary Shares of Motif Bio and the price of each Ordinary Share underlying an ADS is thus equivalent to the price per Ordinary Share in the European Placing (based on an exchange rate of approximately US$1.246 to £1.00). The US Offering and the European Placing (the 'Fundraising') are, in aggregate but excluding any over-allotment, expected to raise US$25m gross. Investors will be allotted one ADS Warrant for every two ADSs subscribed in the US Offering, and one Ordinary Share Warrant for every two Ordinary Shares subscribed in the European Placing. The ADS Warrants and the Ordinary Share Warrants have an exercise price of US$8.03 and 32.2 pence respectively. Closing of the US Offering and European Placing is expected to occur on or about 23 November 2016, subject to customary closing conditions. Invesco Asset Management Limited, a 25% shareholder of Motif Bio, agreed as part of this exercise to subscribe for 1,090,800 ADSs, together with ADS Warrants over 545,400 ADSs, at the public offering price, to ensure its position does not become diluted. Post issue, the total number of issued ordinary shares comprises 180,643,744.Our view: It's been painful, but at least it's finally been done! Motif has achieved its NASDAQ listing, through which the true value of iclaprim can now be recognised. Quite why the whole exercise has been so tricky for a Group that quite clearly own the rights to such a quite exception and advanced novel antibiotic, which has obvious US peers valued at a multiple of it's now paltry (pre-issue) valuation of £32.5m, is something of a mystery. Even on a post-issue basis, it is less than one-quarter that of Paratek Pharmaceuticals Inc., Motif's most obvious peer, which presently has a market cap of US$294m. Motif management now, quite clearly, must climb back up the ladder of investor credibility. But given the quite exception profile of iclaprim, that should not be too difficult. And with the net proceeds of the fundraising expected to be at least US$20.5 million, this will be sufficient capital to fund (i) the expenses to conducting the molecule's two Phase 3 clinical trials for the treatment of ABSSSI, including the completion of the REVIVE-1 trial; and (ii) working capital, general and administrative expenses, research and development expenses, and other general corporate purposes. The Board notes it will require additional funds to complete the REVIVE-2 trial, for which it suggests opportunity to raise the additional capital through public or private financings and/or other partnering opportunities. Given, however, the fact that patient enrollment for REVIVE-1 has exceeded projections and data readout is now expected in the second quarter of 2017, the point at which big pharma normally comes to the negotiating table, it would be realistic to expect partnering opportunities to present themselves by then. Typically, these would be in the form of an up-front lump sum, followed by milestone/royalty payments on route to commercialisation, sufficient to plug the near-term funding gap. Beaufort strongly believes in the potential for iclaprim, whose platform of prospective indications creates opportunity way beyond those already identified. Recognition of this should herald a significant re-rating for the shares and those shareholders who subscribed the European Offer will, in due course, be seen to have bagged a bargain. Given that the exercise price of the attached 5-year warrants of 32.2p will likely provide some near-term resistance for the shares, Beaufort recommends using this and the improved liquidity thus created in order to build up underweight positions. Beaufort retains a Speculative Buy rating on Motif Bio.To read Beaufort's full research archive click hereCompiled by:Barry Gibb, Kazunaga Senga, Sheldon Modeland & Charles Long(t) [phone](e) [e-mail]

[patviera] 21/11/2016 16:53

That's trueI think we have 80pct chance of success next May:June and so 0p or 100p..so buying here at 24.5p is a good risk:reward imho

[waterloo01] 21/11/2016 16:39

Time will tell but assuming they raise the $12m still needed before the first set of results, that will be a better catalyst (depending on how it's raised). Would be big plus if a partnership. Better to own 75% of something successful than 100% of failure IMO.

[patviera] 21/11/2016 16:33

WaterlooThat article was pathetic I'd rather go it alone!!!Waterloo2 or 3 days of Nasdaq flippers and we will rally..don't forget these guys are in at 28p!!

[keya5000] 21/11/2016 16:25

That article looks little better than a piece by a small time blogger.

Akin to the type that write for Shareprophets.

[waterloo01] 21/11/2016 16:17

Also taken a very small stake, but these will be driven by Nasdaq prices and as the article I posted points out, it does carry it's own health warnings.

[t-trader] 21/11/2016 16:03

Use to be a holder of these when they first listed but sold shortly after for a quick profit. Been watching closely ever since and waiting for the right opportunity which was dependent on progress and price. Looks a double bottom on the chart, so took a 20K punt.

[patviera] 21/11/2016 15:57

I've also bought in here48p to 24.5..couldn't resist

[adorling] 21/11/2016 15:54

Have just bought 70,000 @ 24.77p - high risk but very high reward if Iclaprim is a "golden" antibiotic. Happy to be patient and see the trial through to results. Have also bought the ADS shares on Nasdaq which are up already.

[waterloo01] 21/11/2016 15:04

Seems a little overdone, but this gives an idea of the sentiment toward Motif.

[alphapig] 21/11/2016 14:59

This Nasdaq listing really seems to have gone down well, well it's gone down.

[blueblood] 21/11/2016 09:28

In for a few more at 25p...

[keya5000] 21/11/2016 09:13

Think it's just hit the all time low at a time when it is the strongest it's ever been since listing.

That looks like an opportunity

[keya5000] 21/11/2016 09:09

In for a few more myself.

Any lower and the majority of the mcap will be the cash its just raised.

[runwaypaul] 21/11/2016 09:05

I just hit the trigger@24.38

[substp] 21/11/2016 09:04

Robotic trading destroying the share price ..... :-(

[timberwolf3] 21/11/2016 08:51

Or an opportunity for some

[toolsmoker] 21/11/2016 08:30

Carnage this is

[timbo003] 20/11/2016 15:22

>>>>substp, thanks for that link to the Nasdaq Motif Warrant page (now added to the header)

Fair value for the warrants appears to be around $0.46 using Black Scholes (see below) so at $1 they definitely look over priced compared to the current ADR price.

Of course there is another way to look at it, i.e. the ADRs look very underpriced taking into account the current warrant price.

[substp] 20/11/2016 10:22

Thanks sellonnews....:-(

Trading @ $1.00