Kistos Share Discussion Threads

[vino] 04/6/2024 03:37

Great to see Kistos Holdings was the third biggest looser in Morningstar trust category for May - impressive performance

[loofyloofy] 20/5/2024 10:27

Taking a medium term perspective………great time for topping up. Duly done!

[ashkv] 16/5/2024 08:02

That is standard stuff on most results - KIST professionalism that it is highlighted.

Kistos will be long sold at multiples of current price before any real financial issues - that is of couse unless we get back to negative oil prices / similar for a sustained period... Highly unlikely...

[mariopeter] 13/5/2024 20:53

Never seen anyone highlight in colour going concern issues before!

[ashkv] 13/5/2024 13:46

Berenberg Post Results Note for Kistos -> Berenberg maintains 12 month Target Price of 455p

● Kistos has reported its FY23 results this morning, highlighting solid operational performance
and with the balance sheet broadly in line with expectations. The company continues to see
the benefits of recent M&A activity: its key growth project in Norway is on track and the UK
gas storage assets are providing useful incremental cash flow. As ever, the company remains
active in screening potential accretive M&A opportunities to continue growing and
diversifying the portfolio. This is a solid update overall, in our view, and we reiterate our Buy
rating with Kistos trading on FY25 EV/EBITDA of 1.1x, EV/DACF of 1.2x and a 97% FCF yield .
● Key figures – production and balance sheet in line: Pro-forma FY23 production averaged
8.8kboe/d (Bloomberg consensus: 8.8kboe/d), down by 20% yoy due to a natural decline in
the UK and Netherlands assets and some unplanned outages at third-party infrastructure.
This was offset by the addition of the Balder and Ringhorne assets in Norway. Pro-forma
revenue was 3% behind consensus at €223m, although higher opex meant that EBITDA came
in at €122m, versus consensus at €155m. Importantly, the company ended the year with cash
of €195m, as previously indicated, and net debt of €24m after taking on the bonds associated
with the Mime Petroleum acquisition (Norway). Kistos has redeemed the bonds taken on as
part of the 2021 Tulip Oil acquisition, increasing the company’s flexibility in relation to
shareholder distributions and reducing annual interest costs by €15m.
● Norway production improving, Balder project on track: New wells being brought onstream
and improved production efficiency after summer maintenance (reaching 98% in Q4) means
that net production from the Balder and Ringhorne assets averaged c2.6kboe/d in H2, up by
just over 50% from H1. Importantly, the Balder Future project remains on track – in its Q1
results, the operator (Var Energi) indicated that 11 of 14 wells are now complete, the subsea
scope is over 85% complete and the floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel
is over 95% complete. It also believes that the project is on track to start up in Q4 2024, reaching
peak production of 80kboe/d (8kboe/d net to Kistos’s 10% interest) and produce roughly
150mmboe (gross) over the project life. The project is a key driver of Kistos’s near-term growth
and will increase the liquids mix in the business as well as diversifying away from the UK.
● Netherlands and UK operations broadly in line: Production from Q10-A (Netherlands) was
2.7kboe/d (Berenberg: 2.6kboe/d), down yoy after the impact of a compressor leak on the
third-party P-15D platform through which the gas is exported. The infrastructure operator is
cooperating with Kistos (and other users) to maximise recovery and minimise costs of the
assets, but reserves may now end up lower than previously thought. Elsewhere in the
Netherlands, Kistos expects the second phase of the concept select at the Orion oil field to
complete shortly with a final investment decision (FID) possible in H2 2024; if this timeline is
met, then first oil would be expected in 2026. In the UK, production from the Greater Laggan
Area (GLA) assets averaged 4.0kboe/d (Berenberg: 4.1kboe/d). Following completion of a 4D
seismic campaign, Kistos and the operator (TotalEnergies) are exploring infill drilling options
over the Laggan, Glenlivet and Tormore fields, and continue to assess the potential Edradour
West and Glendronach developments.
● Storage deal adds value to Kistos: The company announced in March a deal to acquire two
onshore UK gas storage assets (Hill Top Farm and Hole House Farm) from EDF, for a total
consideration of £25m. The deal has now been completed, giving Kistos access to 17.8m
therms (with work ongoing to increase this to 21.2m), or up to 11% of the UK’s flexible daily
gas capacity. This could increase further if the company decides to reactivate the Hole House
site. On our estimates, which we believe are conservative, the company should generate
annual CFFO of c£3.8m, with an NPV of £35m. Upside exists in the form of greater volatility
in the system, potential for further capacity expansion, and we also note potential to use the
sites for hydrogen or compressed air storage in the longer term.
● Our primary valuation methodology is a risked NAV using full life-of-field economics and a
10% discount rate

[ashkv] 13/5/2024 12:37

Also would appreciate 2024 guidance from KIST inclusive and exclusive of Balder field production!!!

[ashkv] 13/5/2024 12:22

With the massive Q1/Q2 2024 tax payment to the UK and payment for recently acquired gas storage assets - 30 April financial picture appearing not so rosy. This will all change with Balder coming online in Q4 2024.

SP doesn't reflect new gas storage, Balder, massive Eur 80 million Dec 2024 Norway Tax Refund and AA deal making capabilities. Perhaps the share price could go lower but this is a decent range to add as the balance sheet will deleverage going forward and this should reflect in market cap -



SP-> 160.00p
KIST Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 138p on 19 Feb 24-> 15.94%
KIST Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 272p on 16 June 23-> -41.18%
MarketCap GBP-> £132,581,989
MarketCap USD-> $165,727,486
Brent-> $83.00
British Gas Prices (Next Month)-> £72.2
Cash EUR (30 April 2024) (Pro Forma)[Inferred from Eur 148 million Net Debt 30Apr24] -> 70917000
Cash USD (30 Apr 2024) (Pro Forma)-> $76,590,360
Debt EUR (31 Dec 2023) (Pro Forma)-> €218,917,000
Debt USD (31 Dec 2023) (Pro Forma)-> $236,430,360
Net Debt(EUR) (31 Aug 2023) (Pro Forma)-> -€148,000,000
Net Debt(USD) (31 Aug 2023) (Pro Forma)-> -$159,840,000
TAX REFUND FROM NORWAY DUE DECEMBER 2024-> €80,000,000
Enterprise Value (In USD)-> $325,567,486
2023 Production Guidance (Mid Point 8,500 to 10,500 boe/d) -> 9,500
H1 2023 Proforma Production Average-> 9,200
FY 2023 Proforma Production Average-> 8,800
Enterprise Value/Barrel (2023 Production Guidance Mid Point)-> $34,270
Enterprise Value/Barrel (HY 2023 Average Actual Proforma Production)-> $35,388
Enterprise Value/Barrel (FY 2023 Average Actual Proforma Production)-> $36,996
Enterprise Value/Barrel (2023 Actual Production Including Norwegian Tax Refund Due Dec 24)-> $27,178
Enterprise Value/Barrel (2023 Actual Production - Including Decommissioning Costs And Tax Refund Due Dec 24)-> $53,560
Abandonment Provision (Decommissioning Costs - FY 2023 Results)-> $225,764,280
Enterprise Value (EV) / 2P Reserves (YE23 2P Including Mime Acq 27.9MMboe)-> $11.67
Shares Outstanding / No warrants outstanding (Per 2023 FY Results)-> 82,863,743
GBPUSD-> 1.25
EURUSD-> 1.08

[yawn1971] 25/4/2024 15:06

Creeping in the right direction ...

[fandagle] 12/4/2024 10:34

Wondering if the Norwegian FPSO commissioning has pulled the schedule closer from the end of the year?

[bigalan3] 12/4/2024 08:39

Finally some upward movement. Anybody suggest a reason? Gas storage?

[fandagle] 11/4/2024 21:50

Significant buys here recently, hard to say what AA’s next move is, Norway again? Southern Gas Fields or a merger.

[loofyloofy] 10/4/2024 09:33

Nibbled again - gonna bounce

[steve73] 10/4/2024 02:06

This should help UK domestic/european gas producers...?

[yawn1971] 07/3/2024 12:13

Give me a break Kistos

[nchanning] 06/3/2024 12:07

Surely irrelevant news about the Windfall tax as Labour a lock to win the election and extend it anyway

[fandagle] 05/3/2024 15:51

Glad I didn't buy in earlier, will keep my gunpowder dry, especially if AA keeps talking us down.

[geckotheglorious] 05/3/2024 15:00

Ah explains the 9% fall today then

Thanks mariopeter.

[yawn1971] 05/3/2024 11:12

Back to 140p ??

[soundsplausible] 26/2/2024 11:08

I for one know little about gas trading. What are the margins for gas trading with this site and what quantities are expected to be run through it on an annualised basis?

[vino] 25/2/2024 13:54

Interesting article in the guardian today about the annual int energy week conference to discuss the future of gas and the issues around pipes, storage facilities etc and the role of LNG and wind etc on the prices of gas
Milder winters more wind and other sources of energy will affect the price and the need for storage of gas and so it looks like AA is taking a contrarian view with this purchase even though gas will be required until at least the 50’s

[ohisay] 21/2/2024 00:29

Malcy is a fan of course..from his blog.

Smart, exciting and interesting is what I make of this deal which I certainly wasn’t expecting but which seems to be a well fitting and more key, a strategically important piece of business. Key and strategic because it fits in very nicely with UK Energy Security Policy, something that should remain the case whatever the colour of the Government and changes AA into a new strategic investor…

The two gas storage facilities have been bought for a fraction of what they originally cost and are a major part of the UK onshore gas storage jigsaw and perhaps more interestingly are ‘fast cycle’ which means that they are instantly available for short term demand. In this respect to begin with Kistos will be working with a ‘leading trading house’ although I would expect them to be doing that job themselves before long, worth the while if you can provide 11% of the UK’s flexible daily gas capacity if called upon.

Being free to buy or sell gas gives Kistos significant extra flexibility in the market it operates and this subsidiary not being considered an oil and gas company will own 100% of the trading business and liable only to taxation as a trader and not the Looney tax. It also has the opportunity to provide the UK with highly valuable ‘cushion gas’ the value of which alone more than justifies the purchase price.

Finally and for the longer term, the company notes that this could provide profitable opportunities in both compressed air and has potential for hydrogen trading should that market develop. It looks like Andrew Austin has yet again come up with a dollar for a dime..

I note todays volume was the biggest since last June ..the market clearly liked it too.

[wheniamfree] 20/2/2024 14:05

The facility cushion gas in place valued at £24m at spot. Looks like AA has picked this up for net cost of next to nothing.

[tigerbythetail] 20/2/2024 10:34

Well, this is one way to avoid the windfall tax!
On the whole I think a good deal. But I'd still be grateful for a full company update.

[ohisay] 20/2/2024 09:04

Indeed though I'd like to see the 2023 PBT for EDF as a comparison with 2022's £32m.