Kistos Share Discussion Threads

[fardels bear] 10/3/2023 17:45

That's an intraday reversal if I'm not mistaken..

[mariopeter] 10/3/2023 10:58

Better keep an eye on the Dow futures until Tuesday trading close.... key data over there and Silicon Valley Bank run is sorted.

[mariopeter] 10/3/2023 10:43

Think here for the bounce and fulfilment of head and shoulders.




free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[costax1654x] 10/3/2023 10:10

Im not sure the the UK governments taxation dismantling of the north sea oil and gas industry was on AA's radar.

[costax1654x] 10/3/2023 10:09

windfall tax has crippled Kistos at time they should be producing record profit

[ashkv] 10/3/2023 09:59

The left wing press is the worst - HBR 50% down and have to read the below....

“In summary, clever accounting and clever PR give Harbour Energy headlines about pain while shareholders experience pleasure.”

Energy Voice
OIL & GAS / NORTH SEA
Energy economist accuses Harbour of ‘fancy accounting’ to get headlines
In a Twitter thread, Greg Muttitt, who works for IISD Energy, accused the North Sea’s biggest producer of counting “all of its windfall tax payments for the next 5 years into this year's accounts”.
By Hamish Penman

An energy economist claims Harbour Energy has used creative accounting methods in order to generate headlines ahead of the spring budget.

In a Twitter thread, Greg Muttitt, who works for IISD Energy, accused the North Sea’s biggest producer of counting “all of its windfall tax payments for the next 5 years into this year’s accounts”.

And while that’s led to meagre takings this time around, he claims it “will make for big after-tax profits the next 4 years”.

Harbour (LON: HBR) published its 2022 results yesterday, in which it said the UK Government’s energy profits levy (EPL) had “wiped out” its takings for the year.

Before tax, the independent was above analyst expectations, posting $2.4 billion profits, but that figure fell to just $8 million after it had been accounted for.

Harbour blamed the massive gulf on a “$1.5 billion one off non-cash deferred tax charge associated with the EPL (Energy Profits Levy)”.

The London-listed firm said its tax expense is split between the “current figure” and a deferred charge – the latter of which had “extinguished” profits.

But the North Sea giant, which is laying off hundreds of people in Aberdeen, went on to say it has a “solid financial position” and announced $300m of new buybacks and dividends for shareholders.

Harsh critics of EPL
Linda Cook, chief executive of Harbour, has been among the most ardent critics of the government’s windfall tax on the sector.

Harbour Energy© Supplied by Harbour Energy
Linda Cook, Harbour Energy CEO
The EPL means oil and gas producers will pay a headline levy on their profits of 75% until 2028, unless the government adapts the policy.

The Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will deliver his fiscal update next week, and there’s a degree of optimism he may announce some changes to the EPL to make it more palatable.

Masterclass in media management
Mr Muttitt described Harbour’s results as a “masterclass in media management” in the run up to a “budget where the windfall tax is under pressure”.

“The windfall tax is just 35%, so how does it wipe out profits (implying 100%)?

“The reason is that Harbour has counted all of its windfall tax payments for the next 5 years into this year’s accounts!”

Based on the difference between Harbour’s post and pre-tax figures, that would suggest a tax rate of 99.7%, he said.

He says profits of about £1.5 billion have “effectively been reallocated to future years in order to get today’s headlines”.

“Is Harbour struggling financially? Not according to today’s results statement, which describes “a solid financial position”. The heavily-leveraged, private-equity-backed company managed to reduce its net debt from $2.3 to $0.8 billion last year.

“In summary, clever accounting and clever PR give Harbour Energy headlines about pain while shareholders experience pleasure.”

[costax1654x] 10/3/2023 09:15

220 should hold

[ashkv] 10/3/2023 07:28

Knock knock Mr Austin - please support your share price!!! Thank you

Crazy TTF and UK Gas up 8% today and KIST hitting new 52 week lows

At 285p 50% of Market Cap Net Cash as of YE 2022 Cash figures (Net of WFT Taxes - as KIST pays in installments when due)

Market Cap at 285p would translate to 60% of Market Cap being Net cash by end of Q1 2023

At 285p - Enterprise Value for a solid 11000-12000boepd is a MEASLY $145 million. SHORT TERM MARKET SELL-OFF - CAN'T GO DOWN MUCH MORE

THINKING OF AVERAGING DOWN - KIST HAS BECOME A NO BRAINER TRADE AT THESE LEVELS

Brent: $81.25
British Gas Prices (Next Month): £118
SP: 285p
KIST Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 285p on 10 Mar 2023: 0.00%
KIST Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 665p on 30 Aug 2022: -57.14%
Shares Outstanding: 82,860,000
GBPUSD: 1.195
EURUSD: 1.06
MarketCap GBP: £236,151,000
MarketCap USD: $282,200,445
Cash EUR (31 Dec 2022): €211,000,000
Cash USD (31 Dec 2022): $223,660,000
Debt EUR (31 Dec 2022): €82,000,000
Debt USD (31 Dec 2022): $86,920,000
Net Cash(EUR) 31 Dec 2022: €129,000,000
Net Cash(USD) 31 Dec 2022: $136,740,000
Net Cash as % of Market Cap: 48.45%
Share Price - Net Cash Component: 138.10p
Enterprise Value (In USD): $145,460,445
Actual Production 2022: 10,700
Implied Actual Production H2 2022: 9,000
Enterprise Value/Barrel Actual 2022 Production: $13,594
Enterprise Value/Barrel IMPLIED Actual H2 2022 Production: $16,162

[ashkv] 10/3/2023 07:28

Almost all shares crashed spectacularly during the COVID market panic - IT WAS A MASS MARKET SELL-OFF AND ALL OF US WHO BOUGHT IN MADE MEGA $$$

There is no such once in a century pandemic facing the world - and KIST is spectacularly undervalued given there is a multi-year shortage of gas facing the world / Europe. Moreover deals such as the recent Suncor and Tailwind deals would put an EV/Barrel of oil equivalent - 4x what KIST, SQZ are trading at and 2x that of HBR...

I expect Andrew Austin to release a positive RNS any moment....

P.S. To my recollection RRE was never at 30% of NET Cash - do you have any proof that verifies this assertion?

[ripvanwinkle3] 09/3/2023 16:17

That's why some of us made a killing...

[ripvanwinkle3] 09/3/2023 16:16

RRE share price went under 30% of their cash balance in early 2020

[costax1654x] 09/3/2023 15:50

Rre was at 75% cash at some point

[mariopeter] 09/3/2023 15:49

Think the share price has to do some technical stuff. Don't worry just short term.

[ashkv] 09/3/2023 15:10

Knock knock Mr Austin - please support your share price!!! Thank you

At 295p 47% of Market Cap Net Cash as of YE 2022 Cash figures (Net of WFT Taxes - as KIST pays in installments when due)

Market Cap at 295p likely 55-60% Net cash by end of Q1 2023

Brent: $84.00
British Gas Prices (Next Month): £105
SP: 295p
KIST Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 295p on 9 Mar 2023: 0.00%
KIST Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 665p on 30 Aug 2022: -55.64%
Shares Outstanding: 82,860,000
GBPUSD: 1.19
EURUSD: 1.06
MarketCap GBP: £244,437,000
MarketCap USD: $290,880,030
Cash EUR (31 Dec 2022): €211,000,000
Cash USD (31 Dec 2022): $223,660,000
Debt EUR (31 Dec 2022): €82,000,000
Debt USD (31 Dec 2022): $86,920,000
Net Cash(EUR) 31 Dec 2022: €129,000,000
Net Cash(USD) 31 Dec 2022: $136,740,000
Net Cash as % of Market Cap: 47.01%
Share Price - Net Cash Component: 138.68p
Enterprise Value (In USD): $154,140,030
Actual Production 2022: 10,700
Implied Actual Production H2 2022: 9,000
Enterprise Value/Barrel Actual 2022 Production: $14,406
Enterprise Value/Barrel IMPLIED Actual H2 2022 Production: $17,127

[mariopeter] 09/3/2023 12:20

By way of example I know someone in Morocco sitting on 1 TCF of gas at FEED completion stage and currently valued at 150m. Look at the fiscal regime in Morocco. Night and day. Downslope and uphill etc. North Sea choking but if that is Government policy then no need to fight it.

Think the UK will be confined to the "very high political risk" bin and that is something historic Governments proudly avoided. Irreversible damage is done. Question now of runoff.

Still a nice puddle of oil in Holland to develop free of wft.

[mariopeter] 09/3/2023 12:07

Agree with that Adg.

Simples for KIST ....expand elsewhere and we have the funds to dwarf current operations.

[mariopeter] 09/3/2023 09:37

Looked at Harbour results today... tax charge staggering. Acquisitions at KIST I think will have to be outside Europe because :

Punished with very high tax for producing a commodity in short supply.
Currently no benefit for producing ultra low CO2 emission gas.
Difficult to value gas producers in Europe.
Have to hedge growth against high taxes.

Maybe with gas prices so low again WFT will be cancelled who knows but if not eased significantly the UK will lose its oil and gas industry. Government need to take its boot off the golden goose's neck.

[adg] 09/3/2023 08:43

I agree this is starting to look like one of those gifts that come along from time to time - very few if any justifiable reasons why this is trading at £3 and coupled with cash and AA track record and personal investment I think this is starting to become a very attractive opportunity to double your money in a year or so.
The SQZ episode appeared to be a bit of a clusterfekk and I think knocked confidence in KIST a bit but AA will have had his master plan I am sure if that - he is one shrewd cookie and not a lot gets by him.
I am actually waiting big news from this company I’m the near future, in what guise I have no specific knowledge however I reckon it’ll be of benefit to shareholders (of which AA is a rather large one…)

[costax1654x] 08/3/2023 20:18

Any bonds...???

[mariopeter] 08/3/2023 17:08

Time to consider premium prices for low carbon gas.

[ashkv] 08/3/2023 14:42

Market Cap is 47% Net Cash (Post Taxes) at 300p given year end 2022 cash level. Current Net Cash more likely to be 55-60% of Market Cap.

Enterprise Value approaching a measly $150mn for 11,000-12,000 Boepd per day when recent deals for similar barrels at 4x this level.

KIST is falling on low volume but A NO BRAINER BUY AT THESE LEVELS. Andrew Austin purchased mega share in 2022 when share price above today's derisory levels....

Brent: $83.00
British Gas Prices (Next Month): £110
SP: 300p
KIST Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 300p on 8 Mar 2023: 0.00%
KIST Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 665p on 30 Aug 2022: -54.89%
Shares Outstanding: 82,860,000
GBPUSD: 1.18
EURUSD: 1.055
MarketCap GBP: £248,580,000
MarketCap USD: $293,324,400
Cash EUR (31 Dec 2022): €211,000,000
Cash USD (31 Dec 2022): $222,605,000
Debt EUR (31 Dec 2022): €82,000,000
Debt USD (31 Dec 2022): $86,510,000
Net Cash(EUR) 31 Dec 2022: €129,000,000
Net Cash(USD) 31 Dec 2022: $136,095,000
Net Cash as % of Market Cap: 46.40%
Share Price - Net Cash Component: 139.19p
Enterprise Value (In USD): $157,229,400
Actual Production 2022: 10,700
Implied Actual Production H2 2022: 9,000
Enterprise Value/Barrel Actual 2022 Production: $14,694
Enterprise Value/Barrel IMPLIED Actual H2 2022 Production: $17,470

[ashkv] 08/3/2023 14:35

50% of production is Netherlands - which has an one off Windfall Tax and even with the UK Tax the fall is way overdone... Market Cap 47% Net cash at 300p - as of cash position on 31 Dec 2022 - Net Cash part of market cap at present should be approaching 60% at 300p... No brainer given EV/Boepd on deals have been 4x the current EV/Boepd that the market is putting on Kistos - post both 2022 Windfall Taxes...