Kistos Share Discussion Threads

[mariopeter] 19/1/2023 10:54

Mkt cap £314m
Net cash Euro129m (edit)

[kadvfn1] 19/1/2023 09:23

you mean at 380p right?

[ashkv] 19/1/2023 09:05

Comfortably over €250 million year end 2023 if gas prices remain even at present low levels.

At 380p share price for KIST - 35% of market cap is "Net Cash"

Net Cash(EUR) 31 Dec 2022: €129,000,000

kadvfn1
19 Jan '23 - 08:41 - 799 of 799
0 0 0
Just out of curiosity. If they don't find any opportunities and we're to give money back. How much are we looking here? Any guess?

[kadvfn1] 19/1/2023 08:41

Just out of curiosity. If they don't find any opportunities and we're to give money back. How much are we looking here? Any guess?

[mariopeter] 18/1/2023 18:03

The deals are the big catalysts although Benriach (I think a second appraisal well) will be interesting too in Q2. Not sure about Glendronach as thought it was just a tieback but there you go; still too expensive for the economics. Benriach might swing it. Not long to go on that.

Share price seems a bit cheap but who knows in this market with the mad gas price and the mad governments and their taxes. Dutch oil asset shiningly attractive with no windfall tax on it.

Actually don't want money back or dividends. Happy to leave with this management all day long.

[ashkv] 18/1/2023 16:08

CATALYSTS - KISTOS SHARE PRICE

Gas price - TTF and UK - SHORT TERM
Infill Wells and Production improving in Dutch Fields (Total KIST production back above 10kbpd or more) - SHORT TERM
Bernriach Well - Q2 2023 - MID TERM
Deals for incremental production - ONGOING
Buyback / Dividend Announcement - MID TERM
Glendronach development - FID - SHORT TERM
Orion Oil Dield Concept Select Announcement - SHORT TERM

Please update if I have overlooked any potential catalysts? Thanks

[ifthecapfits] 18/1/2023 13:17

The drop seems overdone to me. So i've taken an initial lump.

[ashkv] 18/1/2023 11:48

SQZ offer for KIST? - Would be cheeky :)

[ashkv] 18/1/2023 11:44

Topped up on KIST - dirt cheap. Nothing for upcoming mega drill in Q2 and production being priced at a discount even to the disappointing 9,000 bpd in H2 2022

Brent: $87.50
British Gas Prices (Next Month): £153
SP: 355
Shares Outstanding: 82,860,000
GBPUSD: 1.235
EURUSD: 1.0825
MarketCap GBP: £294,153,000
MarketCap USD: $363,278,955
Cash EUR (31 Dec 2022): €211,000,000
Cash USD (31 Dec 2022): $228,407,500
Debt EUR (31 Dec 2022): €82,000,000
Debt USD (31 Dec 2022): $88,765,000
Net Cash(EUR) 31 Dec 2022: €129,000,000
Net Cash(USD) 31 Dec 2022: $139,642,500
Enterprise Value (In USD): $223,636,455
Actual Production 2022: 10,700
Implied Actual Production H2 2022: 9,000 (12,000 Bpd H1 2022 Production)
Enterprise Value/Barrel Actual 2022 Production: $20,901
Enterprise Value/Barrel IMPLIED Actual H2 2022 Production: $24,848

[marcela9] 18/1/2023 10:36

Selloff looks overdone - weird MM pricing!

[scbscb] 18/1/2023 10:04

Agree maripeter.

Looks like the European and UK governments have made the North Sea development uneconomic. There is hardly any upside with all profits taxed away and still all the downside. So much for energy security.

[mariopeter] 18/1/2023 08:50

Just noticed this:


"The Company is actively evaluating opportunities outside of the UK and Dutch jurisdictions"

Shame on the European and UK governments.

[mariopeter] 18/1/2023 08:03

Sure Anley but at what cost?

[mariopeter] 18/1/2023 07:30

Benriach 600 mmboe or 120mmboe net to KIST well sanctioned so that's a surprise leapfrogging Glendronach likely stayed by WFT.

Lots of tax has been paid out.


Be good to see if Q10A can have a tie back to Q11.

Oil progressed.

Still grand job.

Are KIST sniffing around HUR cause someone is? Interesting oil more favourable .

[anley] 17/1/2023 15:18

That's why smallish shareholders do not like - SQZ & Tailwind and at the same time getting all their debt repaid.

But Mercuria are no fools and they will make sure that the enlarged group expands.......wait and see.

[mariopeter] 16/1/2023 09:30

Had a look at Tailwind numbers and from zero in 2017 Mercuria got the company to borrow money and buy $420m of assets spend $140m on capex , gave themselves dividends of $205m, generated EBITDA of $600m, revalued Triton assets $136m and of course revalued tax losses +$230m, increased mmboe in the ground (after 4 years production)and left $104m in the goose but it was straddled with $344m debt (Dec 2021). Paid nil company tax. Had another year's trading too. Now selling and getting 28% of SQZ for their trouble. Mercuria cash/asset flows are:

Presumably a bank guarantee -0
Dividend received from Tailwind +$205m
28% SQZ +£308m stg (cheap stock)

Pity SQZ could not do similar deals and think their shareholders would prefer that. This is how private equity works. Zero out (and only ever out temporarily) and huge bucks back in. I see no synergy in Mercuria to SQZ. Tailwind management might be useful.

This is what KIST are doing ....Mercuria style deals. The Triton assets were bought cheap from Esso and Shell.

[mariopeter] 16/1/2023 09:29

Fat finger!

[ashkv] 16/1/2023 09:09

What was with the 70% rise - 15k buy in the 700s!!!

[mariopeter] 16/1/2023 08:38

We all know what happened to Merc cars when the bean counters took control. What a disaster that was. Tailwind an interesting pitstop.

[adg] 15/1/2023 08:09

Yeah, started in Aberdeen in 83 with bp, about a dozen years straight offshore in ops then contract project work over the world from the late 90’s until i decided to throw the towel in last year because I started to dislike the work/industry. All the same mistakes being made again and again due to projects being run by bean counters. Too much toxicity in the project groups (mostly but not all). It’ll never change - it’ll just get worse & more expensive sadly. Had a lot of good times though and got to see & do things most people won’t so very grateful for that.

[mariopeter] 13/1/2023 09:37

Didn't realise you were an oiler adg. Mercuria looks very big. SQZ great company too but the price of their paper is just wrong.

How many times have we seen bids rejected and the target subsequently deteriorate. It was the audacity of the SQZ management/advisors towards KIST that staggered me and obviously highlighted weakness. Mercuria were not long getting in there.

[adg] 13/1/2023 08:30

Yes fun and games at SQZ - I know Tailwind well as consulted with them for a while - some smart people and a decent outfit but wouldn’t have put them as a good fit with SQZ - and the price!!

[mariopeter] 12/1/2023 19:36

Rather a more favourable fiscal climate. Yes very quiet here. Been watching the drama at SQZ.

[adg] 12/1/2023 15:06

All very quiet and steady stare….
Hoping for some news soon, Shell are selling SNS assets - is there a match there I wonder?

[mariopeter] 05/1/2023 11:26

Q10 historic production:



ANUARI
55.011.483 Nm3
FEBRUARI
35.735.000 Nm3
MAART
49.671.140 Nm3
APRIL
39.471.818 Nm3
MEI
38.696.898 Nm3
JUNI
41.111.117 Nm3
JULI
21.967.078 Nm3
AUGUSTUS
11.590.999 Nm3
SEPTEMBER
38.750.554 Nm3
OKTOBER
35.581.236 Nm3
NOVEMBER

DECEMBER