Yes, future looks decent |
Finally, a major uplift to production once oil ramps up from Balder.Cash |
Recovery underway.. |
Norway is where it's at chaps!
Norwegian energy giant Equinor is halving investment in renewable energy over the next two years while increasing oil and gas production.
"We are scaling down our investments in renewables and low carbon solutions because we don't see the necessary profitability in the future," Mr Opedal said.
It will cut investments in renewables to $5bn over the next two years, down from about $10bn. |
Yikes!! Look at gas prices.. |
Some decent buys in today. Surely next leg incoming soon |
Eu and Uk gas is flying.. wow. Just checked those charts below. |
Uk and Eu gas both at the highs and look like going higher. Silly valuation down here still https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gashttps://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas |
Going again. Looks like it wants £2 |
 So Liberum note ..
1.We upgrade our TP to 324p (from 284p) and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
2.Gas storage could add material value
The gas storage facilities acquired last year offer ample upside. With capacity
increased by 24% to 22.1mmth (from 17.8mmth), the ability to generate further
marginal revenues has substantially increased. Kistos have identified scope to
further increase capacity to 35mmth, with an investment decision anticipated
later this year. We see little scope for gas demand to fall and believe that there will be greater potential for higher cycles of the store. While the number of cycles is hard to quantify we believe this will generate revenues of c$5-7m per year for Kistos. It is worth noting that the cushion gas in the store is worth in excess of £25m (the initial consideration paid), therefore all revenues are accretive to the company,irrespective of the gas price.
3,We remain of the opinion that the shares have been oversold as a consequence of the negative sentiment towards the sector and the regressive fiscal changes in the UK. However, we would argue that investors should look at Kistos as being less of a UK centric stock and more of a Norway focussed business, with exposure to the UK and the penal fiscal regime greatly reduced due to Balder production. With substantial development and some exploration upside on offer (through the broad range of low-risk development and high-impact exploration in the near-to medium term in Norway and the UK), we see Kistos offering more upside than peers. With the Norway development at Balder set to transform the company, we remain bullish over the outlook. We reiterate our BUY recommendation. |
The new Broker note is worth accessing from last week .
I will post a few excerpts if I can. |
"could be heading to 200p in the short-term" |
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gaslook at all the green in the energy table below the chart. looks like sector might get going again |
These look in very good shape now. Malcy is right. The gas storage assets are top notch also.."Kistos said Hill Top accounts for 3.1% of the UK's total available onshore storage capacity and up to 11% of the UK's flexible daily capacity if called upon."https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/552163/kistos-takes-over-two-edf-gas-storage-sites-for-25-million/ |
Malcy today...Cant disagree at all.
Kistos is looking in good shape right now given the deck it has been given by the UK Government and its fiscal policy that is driving away investors and killing off the domestic oil & gas industry. But as this update shows, Kistos is bearing up and with ongoing production sitting at around 8/- b/d and looking likely to be on a decent long term rising trend, particularly with Balder coming on stream later this year.
The company has made the debt, cash and near cash very clear and it’s very positive. As seen above in the RNS Kistos has $144m of cash after receipts of $84m in December for the tax rebate and will receive another of $65m in December 2025 so pro forma net debt of $45m with undrawn cash facilities of a further $20m in place leaving the balance sheet ‘simple and strong’.
With the Balder hybrid debt leaving the picture we know that production from the development will commence later this year and it leaves the company well placed, Balder Future leads to Phase V and there is more exploration behind that for significant potential upside.
Elsewhere the substantial amount of growth opportunities are not limited to Norway, the GLA is a good gas development and with the arrival of Prax, Glendronach should move up the pecking order. I remain very optimistic about the potential for the UK gas storage business and of course Kistos is always assessing acquisition opportunities for ‘value accretive expansion’ and so I remain as confident as ever in the high quality management team to deliver for shareholders who we must remember the Chairman and the Board are significant stakeholders…
As I've said before its cheap based on likely metrics in 2026 after Balder comes fully on stream. |
Page 8 of the most recent Var Energi presentation has Jotun FPSO producing from Q2 2025 with "sail away" in Spring 2025
Q4 Trading Update from Var Energi later on 28 January 2025 should firm up Jotun FPSO "Sail Away" time line :) 2025 hopefully the year Kistos recovers :) |
Kist being conservative with Balder field start though Var Energi has it at Q2 2025
Otherwise a solid update - good to see $45,000,000 FY 2024 Net Debt fall 75% from $174,900,000 HY 2024 Net Debt
Kistos must be rolling in cash given its unhedged gas production - market not reflecting the same :(
H2 2025 and for sure 2026 should have KIST production move to oil with Gas production declining and overall production increasing!!!
SP-> 113.50p
KIST Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 93p on 12 Nov 24-> 18.23%
KIST Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 195p on 30 Apr 24-> 59.91%
MarketCap GBP-> £94,050,348
MarketCap USD-> $117,280,784
Brent-> $77.00
British Gas Prices (Next Month)-> £118.0
Cash USD (31 Dec 24) -> $144,000,000
Debt USD (31 Dec 24) [Implied taking into account Provided Net Debt / Cash] -> $189,000,000
Net Debt(USD) (31 Dec 24) -> $45,000,000
TAX REBATE FROM NORWAY DUE DECEMBER 2025-> $65,000,000
Enterprise Value [EV] (In USD)-> $162,280,784
2025 Production Guidance (Mid Point 8,000 to 9,000 boe/d) -> 8,500
2024 FY Average Production -> 8,050
2024 H1 Average Production -> 8,400
FY 2023 Proforma Production Average-> 8,800
EV/Barrel [2025 Production Guidance (Mid Point 8,000 to 9,000 boe/d)]-> $19,092
EV/Barrel (FY 2024 Average Actual Proforma Production)-> $20,159
EV/Barrel (2025 Mid-Guidance Production with EV Adding Decommissioning Costs Minus Tax Refund Due Dec 25)-> $41,881
Abandonment Provision (Decommissioning Costs - HY 24 Results)-> $258,706,000
2P Reserves YE 2024 -> 24,600,000
Enterprise Value (EV) / 2P Reserves (YE24 2P Including Mime Acq 27.9MMboe)-> $6.60
Shares Outstanding (Per 2023 FY Results)-> 82,863,743
GBPUSD-> 1.247
EURUSD-> 1.034 |
In the interview of 2 months ago with Malcolm Graham-Wood (viewable on YouTube) Andrew Austin speaks about the different revenue streams for the Hill Top and Hole House properties. And the first one is the trade re the summer-winter position where he claims to have the price locked in at 22 p per therm. Not an expert on this but given the current price per therm of uk gas, they are set to make some good money on this.
I checked it a few times that I heard it right about the 22 p per therm. It's at 5:13 of the interesting 39 minute interview.
Interview has convinced me to make Kistos one of my top positions as I think Trump will not be easy on Europe and they will make energy a weapon of weakening Europe even further. I hope one day our politicians will understand the inflation that is killing our wealth has been at least partly self inflicted with the overly green agenda. |
Capacity? filling rate ? Kistos the owner of the gas ? |
Yes looks like really smart deal ..with more to come from Hole House.
Kistos is evaluating the economics of recommissioning the Hole House facility which could increase net working gas by ~60%.
The caverns were developed specifically for gas storage and were operational from
2001 through to 2018.
Hole House is substantially more efficient than Hill Top, requiring approximately one- third as much cushion gas for the same amount of working gas. |
Hill Top and Hole House could well turn out to be the bezt £25m AA has spent |
Some huge buys printed after market closed. |
Looking for a return to 140's for starters here, GLA |
I've been accumulating a few based on a likely 2026 outturn if it comes off .
On those numbers its a fair punt . |
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