Kainos Share Discussion Threads

[mammyoko] 06/6/2016 17:15

absent any other news will happily put in half a bar at 150p and post here

[buffythebuffoon] 05/6/2016 18:59

Given none of us can know what movements we will see in the share price in the short term, surely it makes sense just to focus on the operational side. If you are happy with what the company is doing, and the direction it's going in operationally, then the share price will take care of itself.

I am now very happy with the new SaaS model, and while I think it will take a little time to feed through to exciting levels of revenue, I feel far far more confident in predicting the share price in the medium to longer term.

In fact, here's my prediction:

THE share price WILL BE A LOT HIGHER IN 2018. Sorry, didn't mean to shout...

Buffy

[velod] 03/6/2016 21:02

Well, thank you for re-quoting my post in full, Tintin82. >

However you must realise that I’m not here to be proven right about my posts, or to solicit lessons on the folly of “calling short term price movement”. >

- I’m not here for that. That‘s your department with your stated boast below of: - “My long term predictions are looking good“. - >

I’m more interested in making money rather than being proven right. >

Hey! Did you say that tongue in cheek or with a straight face? About your “predictions are looking good”? >

Taken at face value it sounds like some Freudian character slip and you believe you do actually have the power of “long term” predictions as if you are the Son of Nostradamus or something? Not David Ickie in real life are you? >

Whatever, I jest :) >

I think, although you have a point, you’ve fired off too soon. I posted of “DOUBTING̶1; it would fall below 185p. >

Yet you want the ceiling to come crashing down around me because the share price closed 3.25p below that. REPEAT IT CLOSED 3.25p below 185p! >
I posted whilst the share price was showing 187p What does that tell you? I didn’t say 185p-ish. No mention of ish. Nor did I mention that the lowest technical
support level for the last couple of months and into Friday morning was 180p. >

In other words I didn’t care about a safety belt unlike you with your earlier
post of a 130p “entry point” prediction that was preceded in the same sentence by a 20%+ hike to 160p as “fair value” so a wide 30p safety net for you to hide behind. So which is it 160p or 130p?

Point is you can never be proved wrong. You don’t state what month or what year you see your 130p. Your best bet is whilst Brexit is topical, because I DON’T SEE 130P AT ANYTIME IN THE FORESEEABLE. But I support your right to hold that opinion. But that’s all it is; your personal opinion. >

Finally as that “technical support only” of 180p hasn’t (yet) been broken (end of day close) I stand by my assertion that this could be as bad as it gets. Unfortunately for me there’s not a chart or TA indicator or oscillator that supports me - they all point of worse to come. And the day closing below 185p bodes further ill well.

BUT I stand by my opinion that until the share price breaks the Technical support of 180p then 185p is still in play. Monday should decide whether it’s to be, or not to be worse, to come :)

[nw99] 03/6/2016 19:49

Analysts at Shore Capital note Kainos, which is fairly new to the market, reported recent full-year results that were in line with expectations. Pretax profit grew by 20 per cent to £14.3m from £11.8m the year before, with revenue growth supported by favourable market conditions and contracts with government departments. The application software company posted a final dividend of 4.2p, this being higher than Shore Capital's estimate of 3.6p. The company's WorkSmart division looks "the stand out business" in the broker's view, and gross profit was £5.1m for this division, 9 per cent ahead of Shore Capital's estimate. Analysts believe Kainos to be "attractively valued" with 18.6 times earnings and an enterprise value of 14.5 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation.

[tintin82] 03/6/2016 17:12

ALBANYVILLAS 31 May'16 - 07:21 - 1275 of 1312

Up 20-30p today OUTSTANDING


velod 1 Jun'16 - 14:40 - 1305 of 1312

150? 130? I very much doubt this'll fall below 185p.
That's as far as I see it falling; if it does fall further, that is.

It failed to break 185 in March, All through April and all May. It attempted it numerous times. Lots. Many times. Hit it like a machine gun but 185 has turned out to be a HARD support level. Doesn't matter how big you enlarge the chart with candlesticks or the OHLC sticks - the share price couldn't get below 185. That's where all the bears died.

Past performance is no guarantee of future performance as the small print says, but I don't see 185 giving way, anytime soon.





This is why you never try to call short term price movement, you just look a bit silly. That old machine gun 185 support didnt last long.

With all the reasons for this to continue to go do, it had to, not least the trend.

My long term predictions looking good.


tintin82 - 23 Nov 2015 - 14:33:50 - 664 of 1313
Good results, yet still over valued in my book. Will seriously consider if it hits 200.

tintin82 - 23 Feb 2016 - 18:15:27 - 1037 of 1313
Agreed Dave. Once this breaks 200 then 180 should be on the cards quick. Will wait and see how fast she drops as 160 is my idea entry. Looking good so far.

[tintin82] 03/6/2016 14:24

Yeah, just saw that in todays issue. In my previous post regarding IC this was not published and I simply posted what they reported in their market roundup which they gave reason for the fall. Good write up though.

[alroyrob] 03/6/2016 13:51

tintin82- Seems you forgot (or maybe missed) the IC conclusion of the Kainos results in your post 1301 ?


IC VIEW:

Kainos is staffing up, signing big clients and boosting revenue visibility by focusing more on subscription software. Strip out cash and its shares trade at 18 times forecast earnings for this financial year. Although product investments and tighter NHS budgets could weigh on short-term growth, we think that rating leaves scope for upside. Upgrade to BUY

[gorilla36] 03/6/2016 10:49

The reality is that everything will drift until June 23rd.

[opodio] 03/6/2016 00:36

a contract win now would spike the shares to 220p imho

[apad] 02/6/2016 18:23

At the turn of the year this share was over £2.5.
There is no way that hindsight would tell you not to sell at this price.
At this point in time there is no need to rush back in.
The tenor of this BB is transmogrifying into a fanzine.
Think on't.
apad

[dlku] 01/6/2016 14:46

scotty

this company's track record of organic growth in both turnover & profit is absolutely remarkable. So there must be something very good here - being a software business, that means some seriously smart people, who have developed (and/or reselling) excellent products.

Once a customer has bought software though, they're "captive" - and there can be lots of opportunities to milk the customer for add-ons, fixes, customisation, etc. I've been on the receiving end of that before, and it's a very painful experience. So supplying mission-critical software can be very lucrative, even after the initial licence fee is received.

[velod] 01/6/2016 14:40

150? 130? I very much doubt this'll fall below 185p.
That's as far as I see it falling; if it does fall further, that is.

It failed to break 185 in March, All through April and all May. It attempted it numerous times. Lots. Many times. Hit it like a machine gun but 185 has turned out to be a HARD support level. Doesn't matter how big you enlarge the chart with candlesticks or the OHLC sticks - the share price couldn't get below 185. That's where all the bears died.

Past performance is no guarantee of future performance as the small print says, but I don't see 185 giving way, anytime soon.

RE: Paul Scott's blog - He's run a piece on Knos for the second day running. After initially admitting he'd never heard of it he's clearly become enamoured of this stock, salivating over the clean, honest, growing metrics and has put it on a watchlist to go over in more detail this weekend.

[apad] 01/6/2016 09:32

Read the Paul Scott review - usual quality analysis and a good comment from someone in the business.
I think I shall have to keep watching it out of interest, although my instinct is to expect a setback at some stage soon. If it deals with this well it may be a good investment.
Maybe it is too ambitious/spread for my taste.
However, even in the specialist applications there is a lot of competition: by analogy: www.softwareadvice.com/medical/
apad

[firtashia] 31/5/2016 16:31

"Over the long term, you will have either got it right or got it wrong. Whether you bought in at 55p or 50p will be totally irrelevant"- Lord Lee, ISA millionaire. Happy to hold here and pick up the divi whilst I wait to see which one it is. Great if it goes to 150p, I will buy some more.

[tintin82] 31/5/2016 14:51

IC really reiterating the issue, 'unimpressed investors sent the share price down'. Unfortunately this is the main problem with highly rated 'growth' stocks. Absolutely any deviation from break neck growth and jam tomorrow send the price tanking, as has been seen here over the last few months. This is a good company, no debt, good cash generation, so I really hope we all get an opportunity to buy in sub 150p, that would be magic. As always, patience is the name of the game for serious profit!

[tintin82] 31/5/2016 13:07

Not high, just waiting this to go lower like I called many months ago.

[jsmith32] 31/5/2016 13:03

Tintin are you high?

[nw99] 31/5/2016 13:01

Nothing downbeat buying here

[hanzoo] 31/5/2016 12:49

tintin where have you seen downbeat part in statement today?

[tintin82] 31/5/2016 12:41

After the results today I have reevaluated my targets. I think I had this as 180 ish from initiating coverage months ago, however after todays statement which I found rather downbeat in places I have a fair value target of 160p, and a entry target of 130p.