Kainos Share Discussion Threads

[fuji99] 31/10/2024 16:54

I mentioned £5 level because this is where the chart has some support.
Otherwise without decent news and improvements in the next TU, it could go lower.
It seems the whole UK corporate software sector is strugling, from Sage (SGE) to Computacentre (CCC) in the exception of Softcat (SCT).
So adding any negatives from updates in the sector will not help Kainos revover at all.

[junior21] 31/10/2024 15:18

I sold at a loss this morning. Like some have flagged there is probably more pain to come in terms of downgrades which will lead to P/e multiple contraction.

[cellars] 31/10/2024 13:10

re 74tom #2781: "EPS forecast was 46.3p, so 'moderately below ....'"

The TU refers to Revenue being moderately down: "revenues moderately below current market consensus ...." with a geared impact on earnings: "with the majority of the reduction flowing through to adjusted PBT." i.e. limited scope for cost savings within FY-25.

So, I am expecting eps (post share-based remuneration) to be in the range of 35~40p.

[fuji99] 31/10/2024 08:22

To be frank I am very surprised by an early TU, just out of the blue !

The tone of the update coupled with a share buy back - to support EPS - means to me that they will be struggling during 2025.

So my conclusion is there is the possibility the share price will be heading towards £5 which will make a floor for recovery.
This could take some time though but the share price will struggle throughout.

So a downgrade is imminent and I am definitely out of this stock, regardless of my today losses.

[volsung] 31/10/2024 08:15

Used to park outside knos offices when I was going to classes in the Crescent Arts Centre

[74tom] 31/10/2024 07:56

Pretty pleased with my reading of this situation in early September in post 2768;

"Regarding the valuation, any company on 22x earnings which misses on revenue is going to come under pressure, as there is only so far that gross / operating margins can stretch before a top line downgrade results in an EPS miss."

So today we will get both a derating due to the EPS cut & also a multiple cut. EPS forecast was 46.3p, so 'moderately below' is likely 5-10%, let's say 7.5%, bringing it down to 43p, multiple was around 19x last night, so down to maybe 15x to account for potential further cuts between now and March 25, so new target price 650p or so?

[shared24] 30/10/2024 18:34

I haven't come across any explicitly negative sentiment about Kainos in the press or online. Most analyses I've seen have consistently recommended a 'HOLD' rating. Given the recent decline in the share price, and with the increased NHS spending outlined in the budget, there's a reasonable expectation for a recovery. I believe a fair value target near 9-10 is achievable. The next trading update will help as well.

[ali47fish] 30/10/2024 17:13

comments generally are tepid in the press and onlin-maybe you are too optimistic!

[fuji99] 30/10/2024 14:31

An excellent budget for growth that will now benefit the likes of Kainos and many other sectors.
Now companies won't delay or cancel projects for hospitals and schools etc.
I am now a buyer of the likes of Kainos to hold for the long term as the economic environment and situation have completely changed from today as we move forward.

[shared24] 29/10/2024 09:36

Canaccord Genuity have raised recommendation from Hold to Speculative Buy

[ali47fish] 23/10/2024 16:33

thank you shared for sharing this -shame that the companyis is not marketing itself to retail investors

[shared24] 23/10/2024 16:02

That's unfortunate to hear. Despite market sentiment, I'm optimistic about Kainos' potential. With the new CEO in place for a year now and recent changes to the board, they've been strengthening leadership and laying the groundwork for future growth. I believe these should help form a positive long-term outlook.

[fuji99] 23/10/2024 07:58

Chartwise, and with market sentiments, there isn't enough support.

[shared24] 21/10/2024 12:36

What's your view based on?

[fuji99] 21/10/2024 11:14

With time, this is probably heading towards £5 support.

[silverlandfinance] 18/9/2024 09:29

Deutche Bank raises Kainos to BUY with a price target of 1185p

[essentialinvestor] 02/9/2024 13:33

Issue is the rating, high PER demanded growth.

Worth a look near £9 ?.

[melody9999] 02/9/2024 10:37

yeah nyou could be right Tom. would certainly make sense.

[74tom] 02/9/2024 08:48

No they didn't, someone sold 250k and someone bought 250k, i.e. an exchange. If someone had bought 500k vs the current volume of 776k then shares wouldn't be down 15%!

Here is what almost certainly happened;

An institutional shareholder didn't like the tone of the TU, they tell the market makers / broker that they want to sell 250k+ shares. The market makers / brokers get on their phones and try to find a buyer. A buyer is located and says they will pay £9.50. The deal is agreed and then published on the order book. In the meantime the share price has been walked down to match this activity.

Regarding the valuation, any company on 22x earnings which misses on revenue is going to come under pressure, as there is only so far that gross / operating margins can stretch before a top line downgrade results in an EPS miss.

I'd say 15-17x current year EPS forecast of 48.5p is more than fair if their competitive environment has become more difficult, as either pricing has had to be lowered to retain customers or they've lost share to competitors. So 720-820p would be my marker for this to get interesting.

[melody9999] 02/9/2024 08:35

well someone has just bought 500K so C £4.5 - £5M. probably not a PI!

[johnsoho] 02/9/2024 08:16

I think there has been a large over-reaction to this trading statement and I think, expect, a recovery to the share price over the next week or so. The workday products division appear to be performing very well.

I’ve pasted a copy of the trading update below.

For the year ending 31 March 2025, the Board expects to deliver adjusted PBT in line with current market consensus forecasts, but due to the tougher trading environment in services in the financial year to date, expects only a small increase in overall revenues, which will be below current market consensus forecasts.*

Given the current macro-economic environment, the Board continues to believe that we are maintaining the appropriate balance between profitability, investment for future growth and international expansion.

Financial year to date divisional performance and outlook

· In Digital Services, there has been sustained demand from our Public Sector clients offset by some delays around project mobilisation as result of the short-term impact of the UK General Election. Healthcare revenues continue to grow while the previously announced weakness in demand within our commercial clients continues as project related expenditure decision making is delayed. Overall, there has been a subdued start to the year but expect to see revenue growth over the remainder of this year.

· In Workday Services, we remain a leading partner in the Workday consulting sector. Our win rate has remained robust, but contract wins and values have been lower than in previous periods, and there has been more aggressive pricing amongst partners. Cumulatively, this has impacted our divisional performance in the short-term although we expect a return to growth in the second half of the year.

· Our Workday Products division continues to deliver very strong growth. Our enhanced strategic partnership with Workday to co-sell our products (announced on 25 July 2024) has meaningfully increased our customer reach, increased our ARR target from £100m to £200m and will accelerate the recurring software proportion of group revenue beyond the previous 15% in FY2024. In the 5 weeks since announcing the partnership, we have made excellent progress with sales enablement and expect the upcoming Workday Rising event to be a positive catalyst.

We look forward with confidence to the remainder of the year, supported by a healthy pipeline, a strong balance sheet and significant contracted backlog. Looking further ahead we are well positioned in our core markets which offer substantial growth opportunities in all our divisions.

Our performance continues to be underpinned by our long-term customer relationships, and the calibre of our people, who continue to excel in delivering high-impact solutions for our customers. As always, we are grateful for the ongoing trust of our customers and the efforts of our colleagues across the world.

The announcement of our results for the six months ending 30 September 2024 will be made on 11 November 2024.

[ali47fish] 02/9/2024 06:42

updarte doe'snt sound good

[tullaghm] 08/8/2024 14:25

Its share price seems to follow its own path regardless of either broader market sentiment or even the company's own news and forecasts. I would have thought a new government and prospects of renewed, or at least different, investment in NHS systems would have been a boost, or that there would have been more follow through from getting access to the Workday salesforce. This stock has lost all momentum.

[ali47fish] 24/6/2024 11:57

amazed how this one is retracing and yet is is supposed tobe a solid company or am i missing something