Iog Share Discussion Threads

[geordie99] 05/1/2022 05:20

Long time lurker here :)
I've been picking up stock for a while now, and glad to see we are finally spudding. Gas price forward curve is well in excess of 120p for the next 2-3 years so no stress of pricing there imo. share price should eventually get to 75p/share.
I've also picked up a few Hartshead (HHR.ASX) which has a similar size resource, is next door neighbours to IOG but 2 years behind IOG in terms of development. Thing is, HHR are trading a 1/10 of the market cap and still own 100% of their asset (but no pipeline). I'm thinkin, as IOG goes up, so HHR rides its shirt tails. Currently 2.2c.

[bountyhunter] 04/1/2022 20:23

ICE NBP Nat Gas

217.86 GBP CHANGE 47.22(+27.67%)

[flyer61] 04/1/2022 15:22

Realise the market is having one of those days but is there any news as to why IOG has bumped higher? Or is it just follow through from the New Years tips or todays gas price action?

Long IOG.

[bountyhunter] 01/1/2022 16:25

"Warmer Christmas weather helps gas prices fall by a fifth"



So maybe if/when it goes down to 2°C as soon as Tues night gas prices may head up to some extent again.



The US deliveries are surely factored in but the weather can be unpredictable.

[edgar222] 01/1/2022 13:30

Am relaxed about daily prices. Its been to x10 the FID and is now x3 ish? Whatever. All very profitable for IOG. Bring on first gas asap, I say!The current reduction in gas price is linked to recent shipments from the US which arent sustainable. I think its generally thought that the structure of the market means high (over 1 pound) prices until mid 2022 at least?GLA.

[officerdigby] 01/1/2022 13:21

wskill did it on oil price. which at $80/barrell is roughly £1 a therm perhaps not unrealistic average for the next year.

However, you all can debate that as much as you'd like! Who knows. After this last week seriously who knows anything about gas prices next month let alone next year!

However the initial hook in Jan is 7-9KBOPD net to IOG.
The 12KBOPD net to IOG is dependant on the current drill success and hook up with was last called in RNS as mid-2022.

So potential hit on average production over the year 2022 especially if there are any delays as in current hook up.
Still the initial flow flow takes IOG up to same level as KIST which has higher market cap.


Edgar you really want to check gas prices! £1.59 /therm.

[edgar222] 01/1/2022 12:10

Certainly am not calling you simplistic!

When I get into numbers like this it sounds like I care about the numbers in a Mathsy way and I don't. I have to take numbers slowly. But because its our hard-earned we are putting on the line I believe in accuracy where possible. And barrel of oil equivalent is not terribly accurate, though it gets us to the same ballpark.

I have this.

1mscf is 10.37 therms. That is 1 THOUSAND cubic feet.

60mmscf (is MILLION) so 600k therms.

Setting this out so I can be corrected.

In September it was 180p per therm. Higher now. I had £1.08m per day revenue (at a flow of 60mmscf/d) and IOG have 50% of it due to farmout. So at £4 per therm you can see the excitement! Last I checked it was 280p odd per therm but it is fluctuating a lot. IOG is profitable and took the FID at approx 40p per therm.

Also do not forget, Southwark (mid 2022) flow might double the immediate income again.

How that translates into share price is difficult. But an income of £180 - £360m p.a. (income not profit) must mean a significantly higher market cap than now?

[wskill] 01/1/2022 11:58

edgar222 Did think my method was too simplistic ,just wanted a rough idea for myself before considering investing more in IOG.

[edgar222] 01/1/2022 11:18

WskillThe trick is to work out how many therms are in 1mmscf/dI did it a while back when the gas price was at the current level(in the 2 pounds per therm region) and the income was eye watering. The gas price then doubled and has fallen back to that level.The use of barrels of oil per day as an equivalent is problematic as it is not terribly exact. Not a criticism. Its also equivalent calorific output not value. That said, I agree your conclusion. The income stream that is approaching is eye watering and way beyond the levels at which the final investment decision was taken (which IIRC was about 40p per therm).

[wskill] 01/1/2022 11:15

I just worked it on oil prices as the gas price looked much too high to be sustainable .Even at normal gas prices the wells are very profitable and we own the pipeline.

[dilip40] 01/1/2022 11:08

Thanks. Kill

[wskill] 31/12/2021 14:12

Gas price per barrel is ahead of oil at present so 24000 BPD is around $2 million per day so 50% is $365m per year for a £188 m cap company, that looks ok of course phase one is around half of this rate but still with unmanned platforms very little cost to produce and they own the pipeline to transport ashore.

doubled up my holding today with this in mind

maybe some of our better informed posters can give better figures.

[dilip40] 31/12/2021 13:19

Gas prices have come down what was share magazines price used to work out a pe of 2 at 30p someuwin or anyone else

[edgar222] 31/12/2021 12:18

Billy

Phase 1 is split into two phases. Blyth and Elgood flowing together and first and then Southwark.

Despite the delays in spudding the Southwark well the time estimate for first gas has remained Q2 2022 from Southwark. The Blyth and Elgood flow is a matter of a few weeks away.

Have a look at the company website. The recent (december) presentation explains it all. Page 7 in particular shows the different phases very well. And helps to make clear quite how much news the future holds!

[flyer61] 31/12/2021 11:11

Although significant further progress has been achieved at Bacton, final pre-First Gas commissioning activities are now expected to carry over into the early weeks of 2022. My team and I continue to focus all our efforts on ensuring safe and reliable start-up as early as possible at Blythe and Elgood."

[billybunter1970] 31/12/2021 10:40

Which field will flow gas first, Blyth or Southwark?

[bountyhunter] 31/12/2021 10:01

Plenty of newsflow ahead even after first gas...

IOG's Saturn Banks Project targets a gross peak production rate of 140 mmscf/d (c. 24,000 Boe/d) from gross 2P gas reserves of 302 Bcfe(1) and management estimated 2C gas Contingent Resources of 132 Bcfe, via an efficient hub strategy based on co-owned infrastructure.

In addition to its 2P reserves at Blythe, Elgood, Southwark, Nailsworth and Elland and 2C contingent resources at Goddard, it has management estimated gross 2C contingent resources of 23 Bcfe at Abbeydale and gross unrisked mid-case prospective resources of 36 Bcfe at Kelham North, 42 Bcfe at Kelham Central, 58 Bcfe at Thornbridge, 31 Bcfe at Southsea, 28 Bcfe and 19 Bcfe in the two Goddard flank structures.

The Orrell discovery, with management estimated gross 2C contingent resources of 42 Bcfe, also lies approximately 50% on the P2442 licence held 50% by IOG.

IOG also holds a 50% operated stake in Licence P2589, containing the Panther and Grafton gas discoveries with management estimated gross mid-case contingent resources of 46 Bcfe and 35 Bcfe respectively.

In addition, IOG continues to pursue value accretive acquisitions to help generate further significant shareholder returns.

[bountyhunter] 31/12/2021 09:56

Yes you could well be right, after the previous RNS spudding Southwark ahead of 2022 is good news, now the priority is delivering first gas in Q1.

[flyer61] 31/12/2021 09:25

My take on this RNS is the mention of 2100hrs. They are trying to indicate to the market that they are pulling out all the stops to get things ‘over the line’

Happy new year to all and here’s hoping for an early 2022 present with an announcement of ‘First gas’..

[bountyhunter] 31/12/2021 08:20

Southwark spudded, got there in the end, now they just need to do that for first gas.

[dunderheed] 29/12/2021 14:29

ROV, isn't rig, normally.

[cb7] 29/12/2021 14:19

itsrisky... extra costs due to rig issues will be borne by the rig operator. From memory I think IOG got a good fixed price deal for several consecutive drills.

[bountyhunter] 29/12/2021 11:26

Farrugia, check out DEC, I3E and SQZ, no advice intended.

[dunderheed] 29/12/2021 10:43

263, UWE ffs, how many times?
It's not a "major".