Iog Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 11/10/2021 17:28

Published 24 mins ahead of the RNS..

[bountyhunter] 11/10/2021 17:17

Strange that your trade doesn't show.

[average down mug] 11/10/2021 17:11

In with £500 lol blue day tomorrow ⬆️9313;☝️

[bountyhunter] 11/10/2021 17:07

Yes IOG has great potential but never a smooth ride is it?! This afternoon's news reminds me of that caisson episode at Serica. Only chanced upon it myself given the timing but I guess they had to RNS promptly before in the public domain.

[marvelman] 11/10/2021 16:57

Missed the RNS Bounty..thanks. I say again...frustrating :-))

[bountyhunter] 11/10/2021 16:40

have you seen the RNS? first gas schedule unaffected but Southwark delayed due to problems with the rig, almost as if an impending RNS caused the earlier rise anticipating first gas

[marvelman] 11/10/2021 16:06

Trouble is Bounty the placees only too pleased to sell into it. It is to be expected and as well as frustrating when we see the ultimate pure play gas stock floundering when other gas related are soaring. Patience it has to be until those millions of placing shares are in more steady long term hands...it could have been much much worse.

[bountyhunter] 11/10/2021 13:35

picking up again here today, often when you least expect it!

[billybunter1970] 06/10/2021 16:17

This is what I keep telling a 'Greta Fanboy' friend of mine.
I will be interesting to see what dividends IOG pay out over the next few years, once gas starts flowing.

[marvelman] 06/10/2021 15:34

IOG will have made a lot of money in those 14 years...assuming it will always be windy from 2035 onwards of course :-))

[billybunter1970] 06/10/2021 15:29

I see Putin is opening the gas taps again - will this affect the share price here?
Also, what about COP26 and Boris's plans to get us all on renewables by 2035?

[marvelman] 06/10/2021 15:16

Placing shares overwhelming the purchases of new investors. They clearly want their 20% profit ASAP.

[bountyhunter] 06/10/2021 13:57

Hit £4 earlier (!) but has dropped back now to 291.40 which is still extremely high.
This should shoot up if first gas is on time and the gas price stays anywhere near this ballpark.

[robizm] 06/10/2021 10:52

Gas cannot keep going up. It is over £3 a therm. The winter bill will be huge especially for the ones on no price plan. People will freeze to death sadly as will not be able to heat the house.

[bountyhunter] 05/10/2021 21:23

...but more seriously Blythe has come in 1mth ahead of schedule, I guess it's the onshore work which is the critical part of this regarding coming in on schedule with 1st gas.

[bountyhunter] 05/10/2021 21:21

Q4 21, apparently ;)

[robizm] 05/10/2021 21:09

When is first gas which is the million dollar question

[bountyhunter] 05/10/2021 20:01

Dec 21 gas contract now at 302.84p/therm!

Roll on first gas.

"Gas market conditions not just for this coming winter but throughout the forward curve indicate the potential for very strong cash flow generation for IOG over the coming years. We plan to start executing a sensible hedging strategy once onstream, while we also maintain our prudent planning price deck as we work up the next phases of growth"

So nothing hedged yet with "once onstream" likely to be an excellent time to put some hedging in place if futures rates stay anywhere near where they are now!

[marvelman] 01/10/2021 12:07

Thanks Edgar...excellent synopsis

[edgar222] 01/10/2021 10:46

Hat Tip to Great Gig in Sky on the other board. I agree with his figures FWIW.

Edgar222 / Moleinahole,

Elgood / Blythe Phase 1 (part1)

My thoughts on production figures and timings are not much different from your own.
Elgood flowed at a max rate of 57.8 mmscf/d and 959bbl /day of condensate
Blythe flowed at a max rate of 45.5 mmscf/d ( restricted by LCM fluid so should be considerably higher when cleaned up on production)
I agree that they will not produce the wells on anything like well test figures and would say your assumption of a combined 70mmscf/d is very fair and realistic.
That does not account for the condensate from Blythe which will also add to the production revenue.

First gas is still being reported as Q4 2021, the 24” Valve skid is being installed subsea this month and Bacton onshore installations and upgrades ongoing, therefore Bacton must be the pacing item to first gas.

Assuming first gas does not come until late Q4 therefore November / December and an average combined stabilised flowrate of 70mmscf/d, plus over 1000bbl condensate (approx. $50 bbl) and with Winter 2021/22 gas prices set to average above 185p / therm.

70mmscf/d x 185p / therm equates to around £1.3m per day, condensate will add a further £50k minimum to that.
That combines to over £40m / month revenue through to Q2 2022 when gas prices are predicted ease off.

Conservative forward price averages
2021/22 winter prices 185p / therm
Q2/Q3 2022 prices 85p / therm
Q4 / Q1 2023 prices 88p / therm

IOG planning was all based on 45p / therm

Southwark Phase 1 (part2)

Drilling commencing imminently and then installation of 24” extension pipeline out to the NUI
Expected first gas from Southwark Q2 2022, so worst case being end of Q2 is June 22.

Southwark is bigger than Elgood and Blythe combined, therefore even with a conservative additional 70mmcf/d and 1000bbl condensate added.
Q2 2022 we will have a combined potential of 140mmscf/d and 2000bbl condensate from Phase 1.

There will be a gap until phase 2 as the Nailsworth NUI is being fabricated and appraisal drilling at Goddard and Kelham takes place.

Closing price of Bacton gas yesterday was 226.5p / therm, well above any current estimates.

GG

[bountyhunter] 29/9/2021 21:13

I don't have a target price right now, that's something I may think about after first gas. A lot depends on timely progressive delivery of gas from the first five wells.

[evilblues] 29/9/2021 18:59

What's your target price?