H&t Share Discussion Threads

[scotches] 24/12/2011 09:17

FT DEC 22

(Link has a paywall) (Numis are the HAT broker)



Following a 3.4 per cent drop in the last session even after saying that its full-year results would surpass market expectations, H&T Group was cheered by positive broker comment. The pawnbroker rallied 1.6 per cent to 320p as Numis Securities and Shore Capital reiterated "buy" recommendations.

"Capitalising on the benefits of 'cash for gold', we remain of the view that the progress made by H&T over the last five years has been dramatic," said Numis, which had a 415p target price. "The stock is trading on just 10.3 times December 2012 earnings and, despite a good run, particularly from a relative perspective, we see more to go for," it said.

[cnx] 23/12/2011 15:04

i don't think they speculate on the price of gold.

i imagine the buy and sell daily. if world spot is 100 then they buy in shopping malls for 80 and bank profit nightly.

the increase in their traditional pawnbroking outlets is the key to the growth and dividend growth

[gwatson56] 22/12/2011 14:44

A tad surprised that the share price has dropped to this level as I saw the RNS as positive.

[wjccghcc] 22/12/2011 07:51

I think the issue is that although they're going to beat expectations, profits will still be down 15-20% on last year and the forecast is for a similar fall this year. The bubble in gold buying hasn't burst but is gently deflating as new competition enters and the easy pickings are taken.

Forward PE is just over 10 for next year which seems to be fair value in the markets eyes.

[spracklin] 21/12/2011 19:07

I've never known such a thing. I noticed a slight ramp up over the last few days/weeks, maybe it was leaked and someone is cashing out or alternatively someone keen to dump a load of stock took the opportunity...normally very thinly traded this one.

Happy to hold. thats about the fifth "above expectations" announcement they've had in the past 2 years.

[cutlosses] 21/12/2011 17:38

Couldn't agree more with Mikey34. Can anyone explain this reaction after such a great statement? The Share Price is still way off it's years high?

[mikey34] 21/12/2011 17:20

Today,s fall following immediately after the pre close statement is one of the most illogical mkt reactions I can recall.....a very bullish statement ....this should go quite a lot higher next year.

[gwatson56] 30/11/2011 20:24

Suspect that the sub £3.15 window will now remain closed. Managed to top up my holding over the past weeks.



The 7 analysts offering 12 month price targets for H&T Group Plc have a median target of 400.00, with a high estimate of 450.00 and a low estimate of 340.00. The median estimate represents a 26.98% increase from the last price of 315.00. I'm sure that 2011 has been another cracking year.........

[cutlosses] 30/11/2011 12:45

IMHO I believe this share is an interesting play on the prospects of recession and/or an increase in the Gold price.

Also like the proportion of net debt to profit and the increasing dividends.

Also seems to be a support level around £3 just recently.

[mikey34] 29/11/2011 15:28

Osborne's statement today strengthens the case here.

[mikey34] 18/11/2011 08:36

Today's agm statement at ABM indicates that conditions remain very favourable in this sector.

[niggle] 17/11/2011 23:33

I think the word 'accumulate' applies to this share more than any other - its hardto average down ona sharethat has broken suport like this but I have a feeling this will trade a lot higher - unless of course there is a meltdown precipitated by a shock China growth reversal :O/

[gj2] 17/11/2011 19:56

Also agreed - it never ceases to amaze me that the lower a company's share price goes (particularly into single pence), the more the posts appear - and the more personal they seem to get.

Happy to continue holding these (4 years so far). Just gutted about selling ABM over 10 years ago for tax reasons.....

[aishah] 17/11/2011 15:51

Agreed. Took some ABM a few weeks back.

[scotches] 17/11/2011 14:19

It's hard to think of a more ideal set of conditions for pawnbrokers than now but very few folk are interested. So HAT and a lesser extent ABM sit on what seem to be low valuations.

Just along the H's and HMV thread has near 15000 posts in a company in terminal decline - here, the iii link or at ABM only a few seem that excited about pawnbroker profit potential.

So you just add on the down days and assume that all the key info is already disclosed. If right then eventually mkt has to catch up.

[mikey34] 09/11/2011 13:34

I have added again today.I really don't understand why the mkt seems to have paid so little heed to what the co have said,,,,ie,results expected to be above the top end of concensus.On a pe of just above 6 times,and gold higher now than when that statement was made,I feel very comfortable that this is an excellent chance to build a position.

[gwatson56] 08/11/2011 13:18

Someone paid circa £3.20 for 95,724 this AM .... a tad more than my small investment. Makes me feel a little better about my recent trade. I wonder if we have one of the declared holders upping their stake? Aways thought that pawnbroking is a potential growth story in these difficult time. I remember reading an article that noted that only 1% of the population had ever used a pawnbroker so the only way is up given the problems with our banks and gap in the market for loans.........

[gwatson56] 01/11/2011 15:35

Just dipped in for some more @ £3.10 .. Into the bottom draw. Risky times but reckoned the punt was worth it given the current advise from H&T on anticipated y/e figures.

[scotches] 03/10/2011 16:37

"Albemarle & Bond is a low-risk company on a historic PER of 12.5x and PFER of 11.4x that looks solid value after good results, but we continue to prefer H&T on a historic PER of 7x and PFER of 8.7x."

According to Equity Development today. They have had a few HAT reports on their site. It is free to join and free to access the HAT reports. Sep 2010 is the most recent - the points made are familiar. Cheap in relation to ABM, management did well to cash in on gold boom, hard to value future income since gold fluctuation etc.

[niggle] 15/9/2011 09:02

tecnnical bounce by the mm's but I don't see much activity? This should benefit from the ABM results on the 27th