H&t Share Discussion Threads

[lord loads of lolly] 10/7/2025 11:56:33

I contacted Chris Gillespie today, asking if he could provide any clarification on the likely bid timetable.

Below is his prompt response, which he kindly authorised me to post here:

"The timetable is dependent upon the remaining bid condition - FCA approval - being received and we are in their hands on this matter. The applications were submitted to the FCA shortly after the announcement of the potential transaction in May. As there is no firm timetable for the FCA response, we are unable at this stage to publish a transaction timetable. We will continue to update shareholders at each stage of the process. The intention is to move to the court approval stage, and completion, as soon as practicable once FCA approval is received."

[sigmund freud] 13/6/2025 19:59:27

I'm going mostly with pm miners wad. Pooled funds best to spread the risk. It's probably the best example of the fees being worth it. FCF must be enormous atm. They have been mispriced for ages but a re-rating rapidly going on
I have plenty silver too. 36 bucks is a good technical level to have broken, needs to stay above there for the weekend
Gla

[wad collector] 13/6/2025 18:57:17

This is my only gold holding , so it would be good to hold something else with a golden hue.

[lord loads of lolly] 11/6/2025 16:01:23

Thanks sigmund - ditto.

Whilst it may be less relevant to H&T holders now (unless they're thinking of transferring to RFX), I found the following analysis of gold fascinating.

You may be about to change your understanding of gold & its long term performance!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpL7I8MuUGU

[sigmund freud] 05/6/2025 19:53:56

responded on rfx llol
edit- voting email arrived today

[lord loads of lolly] 05/6/2025 17:33:40

Did anyone else tune into today's RFX presentation?

I found it interesting how - proportionately - their pawnbroking division forms a much smaller part of the whole business.

Interestingly, they referred to the current gold price multiple times, saying their current budgeting assumed it would eventually drop. Though Peter Kenyon (CEO) did also admit he'd got gold price assumptions wrong multiple times before! It backed up my view that a premium-priced takeover-induced exit from H&T when gold is at/near historical highs might prove to be quite timely for shareholders. There again, gold could just carry on rising.....

The presentation also suggested Ramsdens share price had been boosted by H&T's takeover bid, in which case I suspect this
may prove to be temporary. But again, who knows?

I found Peter's style confident (almost to the point of slight arrogance/complacency at times). Certainly a very different character from Chris G. He didn't feel FirstCash's takeover deal would have any negative impact on Ramsdens. I'm not so sure. FirstCash is well funded and US companies have a tendency to be far more ruthless, expansionary & impatient in their growth strategies.

Overall, it reinforced my view that there will likely be better entry points for RFX some time in the future. It just feels a bit frothy to me right now, buoyed both by the high gold price & (to me, unlikely) takeover speculation.

[lord loads of lolly] 04/6/2025 15:54:03

sigmund - same here (in terms of H&T).

I guess the risk premium - in terms of this deal falling through - is currently priced at just over 2% (difference between 650p FirstCash offer & 636p Ask). The same dividend would apply either way.

I'm tempted to buy more to take advantage of this difference. But with the deal timescale still being unclear & my H&T holding already being well overweight, that might be a risk too far. If proceedings dragged out until the autumn or beyond, I'd have been equally well off sticking that money into savings. Hmmm, decisions decisions!

[sigmund freud] 04/6/2025 13:58:02

i'm leaving the cash in HAT, happy to sit on it
i increased my holding in bakk which got a bid around a similar time. that offer is partly based on the gnc price, which has been increasing, i'd put more cash there rather than here. but i have plenty and enough of both, having an excellent year so far. lots of my smaller cap stocks have done well
as long as nothing sends the HAT deal off, i am chilled. the wider market could fall so i am treating this a bit like cash in the bank atm
i don't hold ramsdens but that share price has also been motoring up

[lord loads of lolly] 04/6/2025 11:22:53

Sadly, no timeline to completion in today's Scheme Document.

The effective date is D+2, where D is "expected to be in the second half of 2025, to be determined following the satisfaction or waiver of the FCA Change in Control Condition", with a long-stop (i.e. sh!t or bust) date of 11.59pm on 31 December 2025:


www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/h-t-group--hat/publication-of-scheme-document/8911075

[lord loads of lolly] 02/6/2025 15:13:30

Only a couple of days to wait before H&T's Scheme Document is due out.

Presumably - amongst other things - this will set out their bid timetable.

As things stand, just over 2% separates the FirstCash deal (650p) from H&T's current share price. If the timetable to completion is relatively short, some may consider it worth adding now to gain the extra 2%+ in a month ot two's time. But of course that 2% reflects the perceived risk (low, yet feasible) that something crops up in the meantime to derail the whole process.

I might just be prepared to take that risk, but will wait to see the timetable first.

[lord loads of lolly] 30/5/2025 08:07:26

sigmund - yes, the CMA seems happy with the deal. We should receive further details around 4th June:

www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/market-news/update-on-conditions/17058514

I think any counter bid would have happened by now. And given the initial offer price, I wasn’t expecting one anyway. Whilst it would have been nice in a way, it could have made FirstCash think twice or even walk away, so probably best if things are kept simple!

wad - in terms of the share price, it initially only fell 6p yesterday once ex div. That drop widened during the day - but currently still by less than the 11p dividend.

I’m expecting shareholders to vote this deal through, so will be holding until completion. And in the (hopefully unlikely) event anything untoward happens in the meantime, I shall be EXTREMELY narked!

[sigmund freud] 29/5/2025 17:25:39

the takeover made it past the first hurdle at the CMA
there is reference to the bid price remaining unchanged unless there is a bid from a 3rd party, but i would be surprised by that now
is there any reason to sell now? being on aim, there can be big spreads and i have a decent-sized holding. so i am happy to stick with it and take any opportunity cost on the chin

[wad collector] 29/5/2025 17:14:33

Lordy , you were kind of right, it only fell 10p!

I shall hold unless I see something tempting elsewhere.

[cwa1] 27/5/2025 12:20:02

Clearing spam post

[lord loads of lolly] 26/5/2025 23:25:13

Wad - I’m not convinced the share price WILL fall that much on 29th.

Or even if it does, that it’ll stay at that lower level for long.

But we’ll see soon enough.

[wad collector] 26/5/2025 22:02:11

Xd 11p this week.
Which will be paid under the terms of the bid, assuming it happens.
So the share price would fall to a bid price of about 631p . The gap of 19p or 3% , may be worth awaiting. But not if you can see a better place to put it?

[lord loads of lolly] 16/5/2025 15:20:21

spob - you never know.

Ramsdens has nothing like H&T's scale & market share though and was already valued on a higher multiple (before H&T's FirstCash deal).

I suspect Ezcorp would think twice after their Albemarle & Bond fiasco. Once bitten, twice shy and all that.

[spob] 16/5/2025 13:24:30

Maybe Ezcorp will buy Ramsdens after seeing their rival buying HAT

[scotches] 16/5/2025 12:59:13

Well done to all long term holders who have finally achieved a more realistic price.

My own first batch was in April 2008 at a price of 182p with the idea of a play on the financial crisis.

There was previous American interest in the UK pawnbroking sector. HAT rival Albemarle and Bond had the support of another Texas pawnbroker Ezcorp who had a 30% stake. (Ezcorp from Austin is 2nd biggest US behind First Cash).
ABM eventually collapsed ironically because they could not service their debts. Ezcorp didn't provide further support.

[1pvh] 14/5/2025 23:35:20

Fully understand that. Also realise H& T had to borrow money at approximately 8% to fund the recent acquisition which at those rates would temper future expansion, However the pledge book is an increasingly valuable tangible asset and also the barriers to enter the pawnbroking market at any scale I would think are huge so 650 p is not overly expensive

[sigmund freud] 14/5/2025 22:16:46

ramsdens has been on a roll recently and they did have a good update.
HAT has been having a good run before today's announcement.
due to the lack of communications re HAT, i just wonder if firstcash had been running their eyes over ramsdens recently? if so, ramsdens recent rally and sympathy rise today might be met with a big fall soon.

there must be some rules about what a board has to share and what they don't. if i offered to buy shell out for a tenner, they wouldn't have to inform shareholders would they? anyway, right now i ain't upset about it. and the ceo has been very good with PI's so he has my blessing, along with a good few others on here too.

i too had thought about taking profits- for once procrastination helped me!

[ymaheru] 14/5/2025 21:56:44

Podgyted, I was about to follow you and dump half my shares for the same reason. I was just waiting for the momentum to go. Overall, you haven’t done too bad. I think you still made money.

[podgyted] 14/5/2025 21:20:57

Well I certainly got that one right!

LoL