spooky - over the past year, reductions by Octopus may have held the share price back slightly. But I'm not sure how strong a correlation there is.
Octopus reduced their holding again - from 10.94% to 9.98% on 9th January (notifying on 10th). Yet the share price has risen 4-5% in the week since then.
Probably a number of different factors at play here, of which Octopus is just one. |
Really need Octopus to be taken out of their position. Not sure we will see much upward momentum until that happens. Suspect they will keep feeding the market with stock to match buyers. Thats probably the only thing keeping the shares at this level IMO. |
 Judging by the share price, last Thursday's TU has calmed investor nerves (for now at least).
Before its release, I said H&T looked priced to disappoint. Fortunately that hasn't happened - and with one less uncertainty to worry about as a result, the price has generally nudged up over the past week.
It's still early days - and I've probably tempted fate writing this! - but I sense we could be in for a small, gradual upwards re-rate in the months ahead. The current P/E looks very undemanding (even in today's sluggish UK market) and the yield is decent.
The main thing I'm still keen to know is how profits came in last FY, given the relatively late pledge book growth. Ultimately, this lending growth will boost the bottom line anyway. It's simply how much fell into the FY just gone and how much is still to come.
Markets seem unusually wary of looking ahead at the moment. So I'm hoping for something significantly better than flattish profits for last year (notwithstanding an improved outlook for the current year, given the boosted pledge book).
I'd also like to see more share buys from the BOD and have raised this in previous results webinars. I'll be making the same point this year if nothing's changed.
Of course, the one other thing changing soon is H&T's year end date (30 Sept rather than 31 Dec). For the current FY, it'll publish results for the 12 months to 31 December 2024 in March as normal. Simultaneously, it'll publish unaudited comparatives for the 12 months to 30 September 2024 to establish a base for the new accounting reference dates.
For the following year - being the first FY with the new YE date - statutory audited results covering the nine-month period to 30 September 2025 will be published in January 2026.
At least this seems transparent, simply aiming to smooth out H1 v H2 seasonality. Rather than an attempt to move the goalposts in some smoke & mirrors cover up! |
Absolutely no offence taken wad, I have had far far worse.
I enjoy an argument
I got a lot of bme at 300.9p last week because the chart said that was where it was going to. So far so good with that one... |
Sigmund , I was not intending to make a personal attack on your views, I realise that many others do chartism . Differing views is what makes a market. I think we are agreed that this is more likely to go up than down. At some point... |
freudian slip - thanks for that thorough reading of the tealeaves.
Whilst I share your conclusions in this instance, investing on the basis of charts is like driving using only the rear view mirror IMHO. |
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com
short answer is there is more chance of an upside than a downside. charts help time purchases and sales, they aren't the reason to buy in the first place. have made a lot more money since using them.
i dont buy on a chart, i buy on the fundamentals, and this looks sound.
this is over a third lower than its high 2 years or so ago. so i buy some.
experience tells me over many years before my charting conversion, that it is rare i get the bottom, who does? i have missed too many good opportunities.
chart says there are floors at lower levels, which comforts me in advance if it falls, because i have the funds to buy more. and i use those lower levels to leverage exposure.
there has been an acceleration of recent downtrend but now towards the bottom of that and chart says it could quite easily go up quickly to 450p by mid 2025.
one barrier above, several supports below, my bet is that it is more likely to go up than down.
simples, no guesses involved. it is all a balance of probabilities. if i make 30% return in 6 months i am happy. you can all dippy if you want to! |
wad oollector - for all his knowledge about how the mind works, our sigmund freud appears to be totally dippy. |
I like the phrase
"there are supports around 320, 300 and 280p. currently 352 to buy."
Chartism is hard to follow. If you think it is going to find support at 280p then surely you should wait until then?
Or like most of us, you are guessing.... |
sigmund freud - you say "my family and I have bought recently and will increase our exposure as the price falls. it is still in a downtrend".
Why have you all bought recently, if you're so certain the share price has further to fall? Makes no sense.
And if you're not certain (which you can't be, as nobody knows the future direction of ANY share for sure), why say "will increase our exposure as the price falls. it is still in a downtrend"? |
NI cost increase can be used as an excuse for the very high interest they charge, if challenged.
would have thought fx must be a declining industry. |
"robust" isn't a bad word. it implies strength, or to someone who trades, that trading remains strong. "resilient" is the word to be careful about, it is a word we use when we are under strain but not yet broken. it implies that something might break in the future.
pawnbroking might not be seen as robust, but it has been around a long time, so it doesn't seem like it will break in future. and where do you go and get a loan f2f these days? there aren't many banks around.
i actually went into a pawnbrokers for the first time in my life recently, because I had some old euros, and Halifax wouldn't accept them. indeed they told me to go down the road to the pawnbrokers - "we tell everyone to go there". apparently HAT don't see foreign exchange / transfers as an expanding field. i'm not too sure. i asked about some of their other services whilst i was there (gold of course!). i had never had the b*lls to go in before. new customers can always be sold some other stuff.
unlike the banks, their loans are asset-backed by real tangible value.
NI costs might reduce their margins, but will still be profit-making, have increasing assets, have a well-covered dividend >2*, low p/e of 7.3, yield of 5%.
there are supports around 320, 300 and 280p. currently 352 to buy.
my family and I have bought recently and will increase our exposure as the price falls. it is still in a downtrend. it won't make me a millionaire, but good way of broadening my portfolio. |
Reassuring update. I agree with most comments above.
The pledge book growth was very pleasing to see. It means 2025 profitability starts from a much stronger base than previously assumed. I know they are expecting pledge book growth to grind to a halt in H1 due to higher redemptions, but that might not happen. So, there could be upside.
Also, the 2m of extra costs from NI are already factored into forecasts. If they can mitigate these somewhat, that would also be a positive. However, they did not discuss the minimum wage impact also due to hit.
But, overall, I am really hopeful this was - finally - the good news we were waiting for. |
sphere25 - this morning's RNS largely reflects patterns H&T has experienced in recent years (higher loan redemptions in spring, customers favouring lower pricepoints on retail jewellery etc.)
I'm relieved there were no major unexpected downturns - unlike last year - & suspect this will provide a degree of share price support going forward. The economic backdrop should continue to benefit H&T, assuming it can largely mitigate its increased labour & product costs.
Here's my take on today's TU:
POSITIVES:
* c. 26% YOY growth in pledge book capital value - ahead of management expectations
* Overall trading in line with management expectations (no repeat of last year's Christmas retail sales downturn)
* Pre-owned watch market prices stabilising
* Forex revenues progressing & in line with management expectations
NEGATIVES:
* Most pledge book growth came late, so the benefits will mainly accrue next FY
* No more material pledge book growth forecast until the third calendar quarter of 2025
* Retail product margins only "slightly improved"
* NI costs expected to rise by £2m from April. As yet, limited clarity on how/how much of this increase can be offset |
"Trading ... was in line with management expectations." (Oh and throw in an unquantifiable buzzword like 'robust')
Says nothing, but says it all really to me, and probably the market in general, since we don't know just how low their expectations are.
Back to the mince pies and port having thrown out a snappy release is my best guess.
Let's now hear from the more positive guessers on the thread?
0 ;-) |
 "Record levels of new customers borrowing from us for the first time".
Ominous signs out there for the economy this year. It ties in with growth continually getting downgraded, confidence getting hammered and what now looks like a flat lining economy at best.
With gilt yields moving the way they are, they were so worried that they have had to come out with a statement yesterday to reassure the markets. The yield still spiked to near 4.9%, and doesn't want to fall away, with it currently sat at 4.86%. With inflation stubborn and expected to rise, how can they cut rates?
It looks like they are going to have to wait for the economy to get hammered and then they're usually slow to move. Firmer talk of taxes having to be put up and spending cut too. Overall that will have all kinds of repercussions for any recovery this year. It could easily be a barrage of profit downgrades before the relief of any rate cuts. Retail updates aren't going down well today.
You would think the market would come in and buy HAT in that sort of environment. It is a mixed update with the strong demand in the last ten weeks and pledge book being ahead of expectations, suggesting a good new year ahead. However, they're also wobbling with material growth expected, but not initially expected - hmmm.
Apparently that is how they expect it.
Sometimes the market looks at statements like that and has a think about whether they can trust the growth to come. The additional NI costs are in the price. A terrible downtrend still in play, but the company looks beaten down enough to entice a few decent buyers at 340p at the moment.
I think these buyers are looking beyond the first half commentary to the stronger aspects mentioned. So some decent blocks hitting the book, but not enough to cause any enthusiasm as yet. As per most, there is usually just a stack of big sellers sat above these levels, weighing heavily on the price.
In light of how illiquid this is and how few orders can be seen on the book, it is easy to believe that HAT should just go flying higher by taking out one or two orders on the offer. Wish it was that easy!
Watching in here to see if the buying does pick up. It looks like it needs someone to keep buying those big blocks to allow a move over that key 360p level.
Volume is at almost 400k - encouraging, but more needed.
So keeping an eye here, BEG and CMCX to see what level of gloom we all have to face this year.
Spew!
All imo
DYOR |
No profit warning in the TU... But did they sneak it out via a broker note instead like previously? Out and about today so haven't had time to check. |
EPS of 50 forecast. So under 7 times…. |
TU looks pretty flat to me , though any news hitting the market is getting a half empty view at the moment. Estimate of NI changes costing £2m next year is perhaps not as bad as feared. |
Correct. Which was the lowest price since July 2022. |
jm6783 - Not good I grant you. But hardly "multi year lows".
H&T closed at exactly the same price on 8 March 2024.
saint or sinner? - I doubt it. |
Directors probably still scoffing mince pies and drinking port. |
Down at multi-year lows. We really need some good news here. |
Also, I imagine H&T conducts background/bank account checks before paying any customer.
Your average tealeaf is unlikely to want that sort of scrutiny, as opposed to - say - flogging stuff down the pub. |
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