H&t Share Discussion Threads

[jamessmith23] 29/10/2020 16:03

Momentum is very poor at the momentum and short term outlook is pretty terrible, especially with a second lockdown almost inevitable.Could see this testing £2 if there is an official announcement, and would like pick some up there. Long term prospects are good, but short term this isn't looking good. RFX is the same, another good business but not looking so good right now.

[rimau1] 29/10/2020 12:11

The bear case here is a second lockdown if the regional model doesn’t work. I am back on the sidelines for now. Long term prospects remain excellent.

[rimau1] 23/10/2020 14:37

I was wrong that £100m was the floor, tradi Ng at a substantial discount to book value i guess the fall yday was related to covid restrictions, i bought some more sub £2.30 and will continue to buy as low as they go.

[spob] 16/10/2020 07:48

This company is going to thrive in the next few years So many people losing their jobs Money being printed like never before Gold can only go much higher in the long run Government restrictions currently in place in regard to finance providers can't last forever

[thorpematt] 15/10/2020 19:48

The only thing with cash position for Pawnbrokers is that of course they lend cash. And therefore ironically it can be a negative signal! From the RFX TS:- "..During lockdown, the Group's pawnbroking customer base had a reduced need for borrowing whilst at the same time continuing to repay their loans. These loan repayments have improved the Group's cash position." The PBT was 18months so makes it difficult to distill the recent trading. So all in all I understand boonkoh's point. Outlook is hard to give for anyone nowadays so I can understand the lack of guidance to some extent. FX is of course the big negative alongside store footfall suffering due to natural headwinds and forced lockdown. Gold price, higher unemployment and general weakening of economic outlook for the UK should give tailwinds through 2021 (as will a fade in COVID restrictions). All that money saved via lockdown may be a distant memory by then too. I think that both RFX and HAT are at a price point that reflects what's just happened and not what is about to happen.

[rimau1] 15/10/2020 19:11

What are you smoking boonkoh? RFX gave a trading update with a cash balance and a pbt number for the period together with an outlook statement. Jeez.

[cwa1] 15/10/2020 06:54

£16M in cash at least didn't seem ALL that fluffy!

[boonkoh] 14/10/2020 20:15

RFX update was positive in tone. But had no real concrete numbers, etc to gauge how well revenue and profit is going. Are they back to normal trading levels? Who knows. A very fluffy statement.

[rimau1] 14/10/2020 09:02

I wouldn’t worry Stevie, encouraging update from RFX this morning so no reason why HAT won’t have a similar performance. HAT is trading well below book value and i have added this morning at £2.60. Nice counter cyclical play which is dirt cheap IMO

[stevieweebie2] 14/10/2020 07:46

And then it drops lol, couldnt make it up. hope there is not a systemic failure here, am now well down and I really dont know why, in this climate it should be flourishing.

[stevieweebie2] 13/10/2020 21:44

H&T just in the ITV 1030 news , folk piling into brokers to raise cash.Only way is up folks

[stevieweebie2] 28/9/2020 08:20

Just added.

[rimau1] 25/9/2020 11:59

Nice director buys, unless we get further lockdown restrictions i think the recent £100m market cap was the floor. Strong buy if it dips back down again and happy to hold long term at these levels.

[texaspete2] 15/9/2020 13:38

Artemis sold circa 677k of shares on 14th Aug, looking at volume potentially sold since then perhaps these have now been cleared and share price will now recover to reflect book value?

[glawsiain] 07/9/2020 14:27

rimau, I've done likewise. Seems good value

[rimau1] 07/9/2020 13:51

I’ve taken a starter position at £2.60 today, will add if the falls continue. Very good value IMO with £126m net assets versus £100m market cap. Debt free, cash generative and well managed. Clearly unknowns are impacting sentiment particularly risk of further impairment, contracting pledge and loan books and the FCA review into the personal loans but in my view this is all priced in. Results should be H2 weighted and H1 was 10p eps so 2020 probably on 11-12 x earnings which i would hope halves in 2021. probably got a 2.5-3% annual divi thrown in too. All assuming covid does not blow up again.

[apollocreed1] 04/9/2020 11:41

Peter Spiller of CGT recently gave an interview where he said that in a market crash, all equities have a correlation of 1. So there's no such thing as "defensive" or cheap equities in a crash. The only thing that does well in a crash are government bonds, USD, JPY, CHF and, occasionally, gold.

[discodave45] 03/9/2020 18:48

They sneeze across the pond and the FTSE gets a cold!.....although what tech stocks, and US stocks in general, have to do with a UK high street pawnbroker is beyond me!.

[izztre] 02/9/2020 07:56

It is so hard to know but in my mind they were doing well and growing before COVID and it was closing the shops and the loan book that really hurt them. Furlough people will still need loans etc just as when they were fully paid before. Also all we seem to hear about is more redundancies so the unemployment rate is increasing. I think you are right re the timescales ?

[boonkoh] 01/9/2020 13:03

Why should H&T be doing well atm? Lots of repayment holidays at the moment, and landlords can't repossess yet. Furlough is keeping people paid. The real boom for H&T is coming in Oct to Dec, but that's still some time away.Only positive is higher gold prices at the moment.

[qvg] 01/9/2020 12:44

Hang on, and wait a bit longer to buy more? According to Stockopedia average daily volume is 38,000. Artemis had 3.38m shares after their sale on August 12th. So it will take about 100 days for them to be completely out? So expect it to drift down until Christmas?

[izztre] 01/9/2020 11:51

I can't either. I guess it is a question of hanging on if you believe they will do well. That is my current plan