Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[discodave4] 16/8/2016 01:07

DS2Ok, mention of 4p was finger in the air. My main point was worst case the RR dispute could delay the share price recovery to such an extent that for me I will be better off selling. Didn't recall many posts citing too many "facts", so that aside and despite what others think (myself included) let's go with a non-bias, and the only, analysts forecast:Forecast pre tax is £560k, the forecast share price for the next 12 months is 7.1p. if the RR issue is going to hit the business by £500k to £1m (let's go for £750k), what do you think the share price will then be in 12 months time?....surely it will not increase as f/cast by 23% because pre tax has been wiped out (materially failed to achieve expectations). Is it logical also to say it could delay hitting this forecast, or earnings growth, by at least 12 months? (IMV it will). Last year with a pre tax loss of £248k the share price was about 2.5p, FY2015 the pre tax loss could be ~£190k, what then is fair value?....3.5p?, you tell me (by your logic, a £750k hit would drop the share price 0.75p, thus it is already fully priced in - I disagree).I accept they were turning this around and the future looks brighter than it did last year, so doubt it will drop to 4p, but also doubt that it's been fully priced in either (unlike your logic) - the share price is only about 12% down to what it was pre the recent update, so think it will drop further if they confirm the worst.....if they don't it will continue on its merry way and everyone will be happy (you will be happy either way!).DD

[dangersimpson2] 15/8/2016 23:16

DD,

Not meant to be patronising just how your posts come across to a casual observer. Of course BB's are an imperfect communication tool and much of the nuance of language and tone of speaking is lost in text only.

I personally suffer from loss aversion, anchoring and many other behavioral biases hence why rules like the 1% sell are so key to me generating long-term market beating returns. If you are immune then that's great.

I'm sure I suffer from ownership bias too and will interpret announcements from Goldplat overly positively. But let me re-iterate I don't think the RR issue is positive. I think a realistic quantification of the impact to GDP would be in the region of £500k-£1m taking into account all effects like delayed capex. But hence this means the market has already over-reacted to the downside so any further share price weakness in response to this is positive in terms of there being a widened gap between the share price and intrinsic value. This is logical.

I'm not averse to hearing a contrarian view but for these to be useful to me they have to be based on facts. Your personal frustration with the share price reaction or view that we might see 4p due to sentiment surrounding the RR bad debt are valid points of view. But unless they are the result of an analysis of the profitability of the business they don't have any more validity than anyone elses' guess. In fact we know this isn't what you really think because you hold the shares.

Myself and others pointing out that your contrarian view doesn't seem to be based on any realistic analysis of the underlying business isn't 'throwing stones' it's debate.

Maybe you can see why this debate might be frustrating for others too. Not since we can't handle a contrarian view but because we know you don't really believe it and that isn't based on an analysis of the underlying business prospects.

[kimboy2] 15/8/2016 23:13

DD
Assessment of risk is subjective. I just diagree with your assessment and I have given reasons why I disagree.

The next RNS may help make clear who was closer to the truth.

[discodave4] 15/8/2016 21:48

DS2"Holding GDP at a loss seems to have a much higher emotional and analytical cost for you than any short term financial gain."Complete rubbish and somewhat patronising - if you knew me, and you don't, you would know that I do not get emotional about anything (apart from family) and have absolutely no issues whatsoever about selling at a loss here (or anywhere else).I am frustrated, who isn't, but it's not clouding anything, what's more frustrating is some of the posters here clearly can't handle a contrarian viewpoint (S7 excluded). Even your post starts off with a detailed justification for how positive the RR issue could be in terms of buying more - why did you feel the need to do that?. From my perspective that's completely illogical and your possibly allowing your emotions to dictate your decisions here as well. Why hold onto an investment that's falling and/or not going to achieve the desired return over a given timeframe when there are other investments that will and more.Nobody is right or wrong we each have our own rules and strategies for making profits, I have set mine for GDP and have posted accordingly - others just can't seem to accept that, yourself included. Only S7 wished me well, others have just taken the opportunity to throw stones, hurl accusations and suggest some psychological trauma may be effecting my ability to make a decision!, even though that decision has been made!.Wish you all well.DD

[danielmiller1] 15/8/2016 21:26

That's a great photo for my fans is it not.

Bet Stupid 7 is as wart covered and as ugly as an old fisherman's bucket lololololololo

[danielmiller1] 15/8/2016 21:22

Yep man Dan is supid enough to call GDP right but not as Supid as Stupid7 who always calls it wrong.

Man you still can grasp it can you, no need to Ramp ALO it's going up all on its own, that's one reason why Dan has not tweeted for many months.

ALO will soon triple or more and in due course will prove another fortune maker.

[sea7] 15/8/2016 19:21

I see that the kenya chamber of mines has updated its site at bit..

Mr. Lojomon Biwott
Chairman

Director-Kilimapesa Gold Mining (Pty) Ltd





The Kenya Chamber of Mines endeavors to be the leading Mineral Industry representative and lobbying body in the country, the preferred interlocutor for the Government, Communities, and other stakeholders with respect to Mineral related issues, and a driving force towards the development of this Industry.

Through the achievement of its objectives, the Kenya Chamber of Mines will contribute to the creation, maintenance and improvement a conducive business environment for the successful development and benefit of its member's businesses, and of the Mineral Industry in Kenya as a whole.

[sea7] 15/8/2016 18:43

miller - you being investigated!!!




Wouldn't surprise me.

You do look a bit american in your twitter pic, on this page... (where you were ramping alo)




Chances of you being a broker are less than zero, although you are stupid enough to be investigated.

[sea7] 15/8/2016 15:47

That depends russman, on whether or not you think that something has occured to which no one has any control over.

[russman] 15/8/2016 15:38

Has anyone seen Pandora's Box?

[danielmiller1] 15/8/2016 14:38

I note British Bulls have changed their stance on this dawgie and are now calling for a sell in big read letters?

[dangersimpson2] 15/8/2016 11:58

DD,

Your posts are coming across as increasingly emotional in their response to a share that hasn't performed as expected. It seems to be clouding your ability to think logically.

What would be the logical share price response to a one-off 600k debtor write-off or 300k after tax as KB points out. Well the minimum impact will be 300k but the cash write off plus maybe need to go elsewhere for refining capacity due to relationship breakdown would have a negative impact on cash flow and hence capex profile. We know that GDP has a very high ROIIC at the moment due to being capital constrained for sometime. So a 500k-1m hit would be normal. Arguably the shareprice has already dropped by 1p = £1.5m in response to the news. Hence a further drop of 2p = £3m market cap would indeed to be good news. It would be a massive over-reaction and would give one the ability to buy at a highly lucrative price.

I'm sure emotionally such a drop would be painful - particularly for those who hold a lot more than you - but that doesn't stop it logically being good news.

Given that it's only £1500 then I still think you should probably sell. Holding GDP at a loss seems to have a much higher emotional and analytical cost for you than any short term financial gain. Here is an extract from a blog post I wrote on how I try to deal with these biases:

Loss Aversion

For this reason I have a rule. If a position drops below 1% of my portfolio and I’m not willing to add to the position to make it above 1% then I sell the whole position. If I don’t have the confidence to hold at least 1% this clearly isn’t my best investment idea. The small position size means that its potential impact is very low anyway so if it is still in my portfolio it is a sign that I am suffering from loss aversion. If I don’t clear out that long tail of losers they will take up emotional and mental energy that is best spent on my best ideas. Given the emotions that surround selling losers the 1% rule is surprisingly hard to implement but really worth doing.

The only case that I can see it being worth holding a very small number of shares is when you want to incentivise yourself to better understand a company. For some reason most investors are better at really kicking the tyres when they have some money on the line. This should not be an indefinite position though. You should set yourself a deadline at which point you assess the company and either add to the position or sell it. The downside to this strategy though is that ownership bias will probably make you rate the company more highly than you otherwise would. For this reason this should be used sparingly.

Get-even-itis

The other most common bias that impacts portfolios is ‘get-even-itis’. You probably have suffered from a case of this too. It starts when you have a position that goes against you. As it appears ‘red’ in your portfolio you start to worry. As it drops further you think ‘I wish I’d sold when I first started to worry.’ The worry stops increasing when it starts to bottoms out and starts to subside as it starts to rise. Then when it gets back to your buy price you are so relieved you immediately sell. This of course is a form of ‘anchoringR17; and is illogical. If nothing has changed since you bought then the share price going down and up again has not changed the investment case. Equally if the investment case has deteriorated you should have sold immediately and it is merely chance that means you are back even. Again given the power of this effect it may be worth setting a rule that you never sell a share at your buy price. Particularly when the share price trajectory has been a drop and recovery on no news.

In Summary…

Given that behavioral biases are pervasive, hard to identify in real time and high impact it makes sense to have a strategy to deal with them. I believe the best solution is to create a sensible set of rules in advance, write them down, and apply them rigidly. This doesn’t mean you follow a purely rules based investment strategy but you proactively identify areas of weakness and think how applying a simple rule could overcome that. This frees you to spend your energy where you can have the greatest impact: finding great investments that no one else has spotted.

hxxp://www.dangercapital.co.uk/2015/08/RuleYourPortfolio.html

Maybe such rules might help you take the emotion out of the situation?

Cheers,

Mark

[danielmiller1] 15/8/2016 11:49

Lololololololololololol

All the name calling yet no one can prove Dan wrong on this dawgie. In fact as the posts are now running there is tremendous support for what Dan has been saying over the years. And no matter who they ramp this dawg it just keeps falling back!



Lolololololololol well done Dan.

Bye the way fresh strawberries and blackberry crumble for high teas today!

[danielmiller1] 15/8/2016 11:17

See the rubbish some locked shareholders will post to bolster this dawgie. But Dan knows better.

Here is a note Dan found from a few years back when the company was painting a completely false picture which fooled many into buying share and losing out.

Today they are still up to their old tricks.

A Golden Takeover Opportunity, which proved to be a punteres dead lead disaster

This wrote some years back about Goldplat (LSE: GDP), a small-cap gold producer specialising in gold recovery but with a growing mining business.

At the time, Hevcommented that it was about to publish its full-year results, of which great things were expected. Hecwas pleased to say that like the proverbial milkman, Goldplat delivered albeit with much glossed over figures high added added an unexpected bonus of a maiden dividend of 0.6p per share. At the current share price of around 15.6p, that equates to a yield of 3.8%.

The Results they would have been nice if they had been correct and therefore sustainable

You can see the company’s results in all their glorious detail on the company’s website, but here are the main highlights:

Maiden dividend proposed of 0.6p per share totalling £1.01 million
52% increase in profit before tax to £5.24 million (2011: £3.43 million)
48% increase in operating profits to £4.53 million (2011: £3.05 million)
52% increase in net cash position of £4.57 million as at 30 June 2012 (2011: £3.01 million)
Market leaders in gold recovery in Africa – production from Ghana and South Africa totalled 31,354 ounces
Establishing a new gold recovery processing unit in Burkina Faso; registered a new trading company, Midas Gold SARL, and initial plant designs are underway
Achieved first gold pour at Kilimapesa Gold Mining Project in Kenya in January 2012
162% JORC compliant resource upgrade at Kilimapesa to 649,804 ounces at 2.44 g/t gold
Strong progress made to advance gold development portfolio in Ghana and Burkina Faso
Aim to delineate in excess of 1 million ounces of gold resources across Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso gold mining projects by the end of 2012
All in all, a decent set of results. The company’s share price didn’t move all that much when they were published, but the gains were trailed in advance to some extent, and small cap share prices sometimes do take a little longer to react to good news.

It was good to see that the then new CEO Russell Lamming had already put some of his own money into the company — Lamming bought 200,000 shares at a cost of around £31,000.

HE SOON WISED UP TOMTHE FACT THAT WHAT INFO HE BOUGHT UPON WAS FALSE. HE CLOSED HIS BOOK AND WALKED AWAY AS FAST AS HE COULD.......FEELING VERY DISPONDANT WITH. THOSE WHO FED HIM A LIE.

[wigwammer] 15/8/2016 09:59

Those are eye opening points, DD.I think we all have a better perspective.

[sea7] 15/8/2016 09:55

Thanks DD,

I would be more than happy to see you move into profit before your timeframe expires. We all have our viewpoints, strategies and timeframes that we work to.

Thats the difficult question, will you make the return here by waiting, or making back the loss and more, somewhere else in a shorter timeframe.

[discodave4] 15/8/2016 09:33

Boom this is as cheap as chips!This is worth double what it is now.Wouldn't won't to be out of this over the weekend.Mr Ooi clearly knows something we don't.South America has no recovery ops anywhere near as expert as GDP, the contract their is imminent and this will fly, get in whilst you can.Kili will be making millions if the price of gold goes as high as they say.Blah blah blah blahIs that better......hopefully now all I have to do is sit back watch the share price at least double then I can sell at B/E.Good luck all.DD

[sea7] 15/8/2016 09:04

DD,

The writing off of a bad debt, the loss to the company, the delays in the capex programme and knock to profitability are obviously negatives, however, as this does not create a show stopping event at goldplat, the sustainability and viability of the business over the longer term is unaffected, therefore, the share price drop that could occur if this money is not paid would present an opportunity to buy parts of the business at a much cheaper price, if you do not have any time horizon on your investment.

The positive exists in the opportunity created to take advantage of a short term negative issue by obtaining more stock at a lower price.

If we look at the results to end june 2010, when the gold price was in a similar range, albeit lower at some points and not quite as high as now, we see that goldplat delivered the following..

end june 2010

Gold price 1 july 2009 - $940oz
Gold price 30 june 2010 - $1240
Gold low in period $910 high $1260

Goldplats results to end june 2010 were

Gross profit £3,516,000
Op profit £2,059,000
profit for the year after tax/finance £1,230,000
comprehensive income after exchange translation £1,726,000
Diluted EPS 0.96p

This was achieved with both recovery plants producing 21,461 ozs.

Goldplat stated in these results that average production costs at the recovery plants were £330 oz in south africa and £441 oz in ghana. (probably around $500 and $661 respectively, using a rough £/$ exchange rate.)

Kili was not producing anything at this time, however, still making a loss.

................

Taking out the rand refinery invoice issue and the problems of the past few years, we can see how well the business performs without the fog of problems in the way.

The business is in much better shape now and producing more gold than in the 2010 AR. It has the potential to be far in excess of the results to end june 2010 as all the problems of the last four years come to an end.

Incidentally, anglo gold ashanti has come out today with the announcement that their profits have more than doubled. They are not the first gold company to report much healthier returns. Goldplat will be as well.

[discodave4] 15/8/2016 08:34

wigwammer,Eh?DD

[discodave4] 15/8/2016 08:32

Your last post is all factual and didn't contest any of those points as you didn't mention them. Was just stating a fact that the £25m profit you mentioned is complete speculation, which it is.DD