Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[kimboy2] 13/8/2016 11:25

DD
I take on board your views. I think we are just looking at different time horizons.

[michaelfenton] 13/8/2016 11:23

DD - Negative views of course are allowed and I had no intention of being critical.

[discodave4] 13/8/2016 11:02

Appreciate and take onboard your view/s KB2, just a pity you seem unable to take on mine.Let's see what happens, hopefully it works out fine, I hold for another year or so and come out at B/even, LTH are in a nice profit and you can have the bragging rights and told you so's :)DD

[kimboy2] 13/8/2016 10:53

Absolutely.

My view is simply that the market is underestimating the benefit of clearing the backlog and into profitable production, the increased gold prices, the new elution capacity, the stock dam potential, the CIL and numerous incremental improvements.

These will swamp any negative effect of a bad debt.

In the end it is numbers that count and which people look at and I believe that 2017 will be substantially better than 2016 (whatever they are) and 2018 will be significantly better than that.

[discodave4] 13/8/2016 10:43

MFDidn't realise this board only allows positive posts, or posts that align with yours and everybody else's views, please forgive me!.On this theme, please enlighten me, when has posting a scenario that could happen been regarded as negative?, are you saying its completely unrealistic because it's not your view?, or that it will never ever happen 100% guaranteed?.Have posted my stance here and what my future strategy is. That may be completely different to yours, but it does dictate why I'm posting what I'm posting (as per yourself) and I will continue to do so, it is the point of these boards isn't it?.GLDD

[michaelfenton] 13/8/2016 10:17

DD not quite sure why you are so negative. A year ago the company was a mess but a lot has been corrected. The RR situation is not good but is not terminal just another delay before we head upwards. If the price drops to 4p I for one will be adding.

[discodave4] 13/8/2016 10:07

Guys, I am merely putting forward my opinion, have posted before, I'm not interested in the longer term future for GDP, my position is completely different to yours. If I'm not, or likely to be, at b/even in the next year or so then I'm out. The RR issue could mean I'm out at a bigger loss and much sooner than I had hoped - simples.DD

[discodave4] 13/8/2016 09:53

Wish I could see into the future as clearly as you seem to be able to KB2!.So, worst case and the £628k has to be written off and pre tax is back to a loss for the year, or best case (let's say your estimates match expectations) that there is a reduction in operating profits for the year of ~30%, are you saying the market won't react negatively at all?, in which case we all have nothing to be concerned about!.DD

[sea7] 13/8/2016 09:42

As long as the business maintains its ability to be sustainable and grow, then setbacks, will be seen for what they are and as the market is forward looking, it
will recognise this.

[kimboy2] 13/8/2016 09:32

I think the main point about the RR debt is that it will only have a marginal affect on profitability going forward.

IMV the market will be more concerned about forward profitability than anything else.

[discodave4] 13/8/2016 09:30

Thanks S7, didn't see your post. Let's hope it is resolved quickly and in GDP's favour.DD

[discodave4] 13/8/2016 09:16

ok fair enough but the £1.2m is your finger in the air estimate (and somewhat over optimistic IMV). How about costs, how about losses for Kili Q4, but more to the point the RR £628k (plus legal costs) will result in a "material" reduction (minimum ~30%+) in operating profits.That's what the market will react to if they fail to meet expectations, and they won't if they fail to recover the RR debt.The RR debt could set the share price back to 4p'ish, personally waiting another couple of years to recover ain't worth it.DD

[sea7] 13/8/2016 09:01

If they have the same return at SA in Q4 as in Q3 then we would be looking at £845k op profit again. Taking the full year to £2,380,000 - it will be more.

In Ghana if they repeat Q3 then we have op profit of £614,000 for the full year.

Say operating losses are the same as Q3 in kenya, (I know they will be less) we
then have a figure of £670,000 loss for the year.

We end up with op profit of £2,324,000, subtract about £1.7m in admin, we have
a figure of £624,000.

Subtract the figure of £628,000 disputed by rand and we end up with a pre-tax loss of £4,000 for the year. Not including finance income/costs.

The results in Q4 are going to be better than Q3 due to higher gold prices affecting returns in kenya and to some extent in the recovery businesses, especially as they are still returning to strength from the previous issues.

Yes it is a set back, especially if that cash was set aside for some of the capex costs that we are incurring, however, it appears to be manageable from
a budgetry perspective.

The matter is not concluded yet and there is a good chance of a positive outcome, however, if we plan for the worst then we won't be surprised.

[kimboy2] 13/8/2016 08:50

South Africa operating profit in Q3/16 was £0.845m. This figure increased from £0.275m in Q2/16

They said that South Africa had a strong end to the financial year and was ahead of expectations.

Is a figure of £1.2m unreasonable for Q4/16 ? If so then the RR debt is about 6 weeks operating profit.

[sea7] 13/8/2016 08:35

have a good weekend also DD and thanks.

[discodave4] 13/8/2016 07:41

SA isn't likely to be generating anywhere near £624k per month operating profit (if that's what your implying).Thought that if RR was written off you estimated it would reduce SA operating profit by 50% (IMV that's optimistic). Thus it would/may reduce GDP's annual operating profit by at least 30% (again optimistic IMV).Taking a non rose tinted perspective that's a significant hit to the bottom line, hope it doesn't happen obviously but that was based on your very own estimates KB2, which you now seem to be changing to make the RR issue seem less of an issue.DD

[kimboy2] 12/8/2016 23:39

On this RR debt it could easy be that since the financial year end on June 30th that they have could easily have earned a similar amount of operating profit in South Africa.

It needs putting in perspective.

[danielmiller1] 12/8/2016 21:46

who said it did not me, not it was not from SA UNLESS BY PROXY!

[discodave4] 12/8/2016 20:48

S7,Many thanks, likewise I wish you well too, both in health and wealth!.You are perhaps one of the best researchers by far on these boards, and know GDP inside out (as does KB2). Perhaps that's also why you stick with it and keep coming back!.Still here though for the time being.Have a good weekend.PS please stop feeding the troll, you know it just makes him come back for more!. Fact: He has never bought a share in his sad pathetic life. Fact: This board is his only contact with the outside world. Fact: He is an habitual liar. Fact: He has been sectioned more than once. Fact: The medication just ain't working!.

[sea7] 12/8/2016 20:30

DD,

I have had to cut losses before as well and I know its not nice.

No harm in waiting a bit longer seeing as you have held for four years.

I had the same level of confidence in GDP when I was over 60% down, as I do now
and the company is in much better shape now.

Each to their own though and if you do sell up, then I wish you every success in your next investment or trade.

[discodave4] 12/8/2016 19:50

S7Not saying your wrong S7, just that we each have a different perspective and outlook about GDP. I'm still 60% down and cannot see b/even for at least another year minimum (probably two is more realistic). The RR issue will IMV set the share price recovery back more than just a few months or so, particularly if it goes against GDP. After four years I have no inclination to sit and wait any longer, I can recover my losses from here elsewhere a lot quicker IMV.Your in profit, played it brilliantly and of cause why wouldn't you just sit it out for a good while longer, you have more confidence in GDP and it's easier to make that call when looking at a profit rather than a loss (which is generally all I have seen here!).This has been a valuable lesson and I have realised, perhaps a bit late!, that the maxim to cut your losses and ride your winners, is probably the best way to maximise your capital. Nobody ever calls every investment correctly (read somewhere that 2/3rds to 3/4qtrs right isn't bad going). This was one of my first investments and yep it was bad timing, I'm now in a healthy position PF wise though to right it off and move on.As posted previously, will wait and see a bit longer.DD

[sea7] 12/8/2016 18:41

Dan the liquidity of a stock has nothing to do with cashflow in a company.

[sea7] 12/8/2016 18:40

Yes dan it was from south africa.

[sea7] 12/8/2016 18:37

DD,

This is why I do not focus on the daily movement of shareprices and only concern myself with the sustainability of the underlying business, its prospects and how issues such as the rand refinery invoices fit into the picture overall.

When goldplat was around its all time low of 1.63p, I might have been buying stock, quite heavily in the 2's and once in the ones, however, the overall value of my holding at that time, was well over 60% down. It was awful to look at, however, when I looked at the issues being faced objectively, I felt that they were all surmountable and that the business would survive, grow and in time the share price would reflect the successes that the business would go on to enjoy.

This has been the case so far.

This issue with rand will pass one way or another. The worst case scenario here is that the company has to write off a bad debt and is put back a few months with regards to profitability. It would be a nuisance and a delay, however, it most certainly is not a show stopper. I will continue to hold and may add again.