|Gem Diamonds Di
||ORD USD0.01 (DI)
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Gem Diamonds Di Share Discussion Threads
Showing 1726 to 1747 of 1750 messages
|Whilst disappointing today's update on the Ghaghoo mine is sensible...|
|Yes, not looking good currently. Do they have an estimate of the value of the deposit in Letseng? I guess they have some idea of the commercially recoverable value of the mine? I've done okay with this one over the last few years buying at low points ... for now I'll wait.|
|A year ago GEMD had net cash of 55 million USD
It now has net cash of just under 4 million USD.
That is extremely worrying.|
They had a good big stone run on 2015 which meant in Q4 16 they needed around 10 or more 100 carat plus in the last quarter which was never going to happen( as in previous posts)
As I have posted before sales in 2016 included earlier found stones and unless they hit big stones that factor would affect things too as sales move to the current finds which are not good. So on paper if they don't hit big stones q1 17 the $1440 per carat is going to drop futher.
The easy maths is cost to process ore per tonne v ore value per tonne. That recent carat value rate is $22.50 per tonne. What are the costs.
I note waste is climbing so that pushes opex up.
Nothing to invest in here right now as it's totally reliant on luck for them to hit big stones again.
High risk as it stands as it's all going the wrong way|
|Financial position continues to worsen with cash seemingly being eaten up, I have held these in the past and always done relatively well however my previous buy in price of sub £1 is certainly under review, not sure the risk / reward is good enough now.
A year from now GEMD could be riddled with debt, they really need to arrest this now, the special dividend last year looks like a poor decision now, this isn't really hindsight either as the company should have been able to forecast everything that has happened, in many ways they did which makes the pay out even more irresponsible.|
|Letseng diamond finds disappointing to say the least ... is this just bad luck?|
|It is very sad that after all the money pumped into Ghagoo it looks like it will end up being closed.
I invested here twice, lost money once made some the second time but the reason I didn't stay was due to the fact that they were very heavily reliant on finding big stones and the number was continually dropping.
Not sure what the long term future is for them.|
|Didn't seem right it was too early.
1.56 cpht ore value from that $22.52 per tonne so costs all in need to below that figure.|
|Regardless of what happens to the Ghagoo mine, I see am exceptional write down charge coming. As for Letseng, the company is praying that the paucity of large stones is a statistical blip, and things will return to normal at some point.... Not a very strong investment case here.|
|News eaxactly as forecast many times here. Without big stones as it's a low grade mine $ per carat tumbles.|
|Oh well, trading update next Monday, so decisions to be made then.|
I'm not sure $9 mill will do it, but they plan to do the surface tailings first then work from there.
The main issue for Lucara was that the tech they used was missing the high quality big stones as type IIa stones don't fluoresce hence technology doesn't pick them up.
In tailings 3rd party tests they found some decent stones confirming failure.
Then along came Tomra too late for them with tech that picks them up. I believe it's that tech that Lucara use in Botswana hence the stonking finds they made.
Part of it will be all about backing which the new owners seem to have.
Why GemD hasn't grabbed Mothae is a mystery to me. Letseng is going backwards and Botswana for them is junk.
GemD need a plan B imo or they need to start finding those big stones again. I thought Mothae would be a good plan B and potentially lucrative. Mothae however would be low grade too and they have one of those in Letseng so that may be the reason. IE if you don't hit big stones you are screwed.|
|Only $9m? What's wrong with it?|
I'm not sure if you have spotted it but GemD either didn't go for Mothae or didn't get it.
|Tipped in the Mail (again)
|I was just thinking the same myself. Wish I knew.|
|Had a nice kick up recently with no news - any ideas what's going on?|
|Re the hold up on Mothae a PI had comms over on PRG about things going slow/on hold.
I note mid November news show things going wrong in Lesotho with ministers sacked and resigned etc so there is unlikely to be ongoing talks about Mothae at this time and explains the long wait.
|Superg1 > That is a splendid analytical post..|
Not sure if you are still here but the forecast suggested re lack of big stones is proving correct and more of a dive to go yet imo.
As I said before some sales will include stones found prior to the doldrums they are in now. EG those 12 stones over £1 mill have no reference to them being found in the period just sold.
So there is further drop to come yet re $ per carat. They need big stones or that figure will continue to tumble. $ per carat is no good as a guide it has to be considered along with CPHT which I think is about 1.7.
EG if you have $1750 per carat at 1.7 cpht then the ore value is $29.75 per tonne. So then you work out costs per tonne all in.
If you have a diamond mine chucking out the normal diamonds mine doing 30 CPHT then the price per carat needed to equal the $1750 rate is $58.33.
$1750 looks exciting but $58.33 is a far safer bet as it relies on 'bread and butter diamonds' that come out the ground all the time.
I haven't looked up GEMDs costs but a geologist will say ignore $ per carat and just look at ore value per tonne v ore cost per tonne.
Letseng is only viable if they keep finding big stones and they needed 10 or more of those Q3/4 to meet previous year levels.
No news of any big diamond so far suggests they haven't found any and no time left to find 10+ in 2016 imo.
As older finds cycle through the accounts unless they hit big stones that $ per carat will keep heading south short term.
That's why the share price keeps dropping and I'm surprised why some don't understand that and the maths behind it.|
|Good Q3 update ?|
|should get q3 results in a months time. hopefully that will give the share price a kick in the right direction.
PDL had a great breakout last week.|