|Good news this morning:
Plus Davy are positive about last week's update - EBVITDA breakeven this year would be a big positive:
Releases quarterly KPIs for the first time
Feb 15 2017, 08:26 GMT Morning briefing 1 page(s) Read Important Disclosures Sectors: Gaming COMPANIES: GAN DAVY VIEW
GAN released February 14th some quarterly KPIs which it intends to publish going forward. The data combine simulated and real money activities and, as such, are of limited use from a modelling perspective. However, they do provide an indication of the trajectory of the business. To that end, the near 20% increase in active player days in Q4 over Q3 is encouraging. We would anticipate further good improvements in H1 2017 with four simulated gaming deals due to go live during the period. Our overall view remains unchanged: we believe GAN can be at EBITDA break-even in 2017, based on its pipeline and the relocation of certain operations to a lower-cost European region"
Finally, I notice re online gambling in the USA that New York has just passed its first online poker bill of 2017 unanimously and looking promising for this year. With Pennsylvania also looking positive for this year the portents are improving:
|Promising update today especially wrt the reference to US institutional investors.
With new launches due in H1 2017 those key indicators , well Active Player-days at least should increase somewhat.
Well under the radar at the moment so will need some outstanding news to bring GAN to new investors attention.|
|Lots of articles about this encouraging news from Pennsylvania, here's the latest:
"Pennsylvania lawmaker expects legalised online gaming by March
19 January 2017
Mario Scavello, chairman of the Senate Community, Economic and Recreational Development Committee in Pennsylvania, has said that he expects the US state to legalise online gambling by March of this year.
Pennsylvania is one of several states considering introducing a regulated market, and came close to legalisation last year when a bill was approved by the House of Representatives, but was not passed in time.
However, earlier this month, State Senator Jay Costa confirmed he will introduce an online casino bill in the latest bid to legalise internet gambling.
Scavello has now added further fuel to the fire by suggesting that online gaming could become legal in Pennsylvania as early as March.
“Sometime in March, we’ll have something done and passed in the House and Senate,” Scavello said, according to theCasino.org website.
“It looks like online gaming has the support to pass; we can look at other expansions.”|
|With TD Direct today you could not go to mrk for a quote for any thing more than 1000 shares. I find that disgraceful when the company has a mrk cap of over 20mill & yet you can only sell £300 worth of shares.|
|Looks like theres a bit of stock to clear - 900k or so went through at 36p.
Odey used to have 3.3M shares here and as his fund had a disastrous year (minus 50%) then he could well be a seller.|
|Here's Davy's summary - I note their current forecast is for a small 0.5p EPS loss for 2017. It wouldn't take much to turn this positive:
Turns EBITDA positive in Q4 but announces that Borgata deal in New Jersey will not extend to real money gaming
Jan 10 2017, 08:19 GMT
Sectors: Gaming COMPANIES: GAN DAVY VIEW
GAN has released a short post close trading statement in which it confirms that trading in the second half of 2016 was slightly ahead of our expectations. The business turned EBITDA positive in Q4 with the launch of four simulated contracts in H2. A further four deals are expected to go live in H1 this year. As such, we remain confident at this early stage that the group can meet our 2017 forecasts.
Disappointingly however, the group has also confirmed that its deal with Borgata in New Jersey, which currently involves an online simulated gaming offering, will not extend to real money online services. While we had not built such an extension of services into our numbers, there would have been a hope in some quarters that the customer relationship could be extended to cover more services at some point.
We retain our ‘Neutral’ rating absent further regulation of US real money gaming regulation. "|
|reaction - indifference. :-)|
|Agree a pretty decent update Rivaldo. I wonder which part of the update the market will react too.|
|Very good news to hear that GAN were EBITDA-positive in Q4 and H2 results met expectations:
Also good vibes re new gaming legislation in Pennsylvania, New Jersey performing strongly and many new Simulated Gaming launches. Shame about the Borgata deal falling through, but that's no fault of GAN and may well be resurrected since they remain in discussions.|
|well without it there's a 100 million dollar hole in there budget lol
money talks but I'm sceptical|
|Press reports indicate 2017 looks more hopeful.
|ok last year I'm still not got use to the change in years lol|
|This year - already! - That was quick :-)|
|pa senate has bottled it once this year already so I wouldn't hold your breath|
|On the other hand:
Many changes ahead for Pa. casinos in 2017
Western Pennsylvania gamblers can expect to get a taste of stadium gaming and double-deck blackjack in the coming year, while legal online gaming throughout the state appears as close to reality as it's ever been.
Signs Point To 2017 Action On Pennsylvania Gambling, But How Far Will State Go?
|2016 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part IV):
Company: GAN (GAN:LN) (formerly GameAccount Network (GAME:LN))
Last TGISVP Post: Here
Market Cap: GBP 25 M
Price: GBP 36p
GAN’s share price has collapsed 80% from its all-time high in early-2014 – frankly, I’m surprised it didn’t receive a bigger thrashing!? I’m not sure I’ve ever witnessed a more cynical IPO launch – shareholders obviously didn’t realise they were buying into a company which boasted of its growth trajectory, but in reality sported a P&L where half its revenues & all its profits were actually non-recurring! It’s amazing management has even a shred of credibility left, considering the circumstances of the IPO, the subsequent collapse in revenue & the ongoing incineration of shareholder cash. Even now, management keeps reporting something called Clean EBITDA…which is utterly ridiculous & misleading when you’re burning that much cash! And the P&L isn’t much better, since they capitalise as much spending as possible.
Anyway, despite innumerable RNSs re contract wins, the only bright spot in the last few years finally came with the release of their H1-2016 interims. This showed a return to growth, with revenue up +35% yoy (driven by simulated gaming) to £3.9 million. Now one swallow does not a summer make, especially with this management team, but noting the revenue trajectory (& recent sterling weakness), an annualised revenue run-rate of £7.8 million would be very hard to miss. Alas, cash burn hasn’t improved – excluding a (potentially once-off?) tax refund, the company’s still burning £6.5 million pa!? Which means cash on hand of £4.0 million (plus £1.75 million from two recent placings) could disappear within a year, unless we see a radical improvement. So, on the one hand, such a company isn’t worth any more than the proverbial pound…but to an investor familiar with the sector, operating margins of 20-25%+ are entirely possible, given a larger revenue base or takeover by a larger competitor. Let’s just split the difference – in my book, that implies a 1.5 Price/Sales multiple, plus cash/less annual cash burn:
(GBP 7.8 M Net Revenue * 1.5 P/S + 4.0 M Cash + 1.8 M Placings – 6.5 Annual Cash Burn) / 70 M Shares = GBP 15.6p
GAN is still ridiculously over-valued – and still in a hole so deep, it may take a lot more dilution & share price weakness before we’re through… The one giant saving grace here – which may explain the presence of Dermot Desmond with a 4.6% placeholder stake – is the network of (mostly simulated gaming) relationships that GAN’s building up with local casinos across the US. That’s the real intangible value here…which could be an absolute goldmine in the hands of a larger competitor, and/or if the schizophrenic federal/state laws & attitudes re (online) gambling are more comprehensively reformed/relaxed (although, at best that’s bound to be slow & piecemeal). [Now I say it, what does Trump think about all this..?!] Then again, buying into a cash burning company, led by an untrustworthy management team – simply in the hope of a takeover – is almost inevitably a painful experience…
Price Target: GBP 15.6p
For related links/graphs/files & other TGISVP analyses/price targets: Google the Wexboy investment blog.|
|My 10k buy today, thought I'd take a gamble on a gambler|
king kong dong
|RNS - yet another Simulated Gaming contract:
"GAN launches Simulated Gaming™ for Twin River.
Experience fully integrated with Rhode Island properties' Rewards Program
Twin River Casino in Lincoln, Rhode Island offers over 4,200 slots, 113 table games, more than 162,000 square feet of gaming space, a major event venue and several bars and restaurants.
· GAN launched its ninth Simulated Gaming™ client online at hxxp://play.TwinRiver.com following a rigorous technical deployment process meeting the compliance requirements of both the Client, and the Rhode Island lottery regulator.
· Launched on November 22, 2016 through linkage via www.TwinRiver.com with apps published on November 24, 2016 and patron marketing launched November 28, 2016.
|Just a matter of time for GAN, surely.
Extract from hxxp://www.onlinepokerreport.com/22374/out-state-casinos-interest-nj-online-gambling/
Parx Casino is a somewhat unwilling participant in online gambling. But as Parx Chairman Bob Green indicated at a 2015 hearing, if Pennsylvania is going to have online gambling, Parx is going to be involved.
Because of its close proximity to the New Jersey border and its strong brand, Parx would be in the enviable position of using New Jersey as a revenue stream, and not just as a testing ground.
Parx’s platform partner for simulated gaming in Pennsylvania, GAN (formerly Game Account Network), currently powers Betfair’s real-money online casino offering in New Jersey. The Borgata is expected to switch to GAN’s platform for online casino operations later in 2016.|
|Interesting, if a little old, link.
Trump Entertainment Resorts has only looked at exploiting Internet gambling !! LOL!