Gama Aviation Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 04/10/2016 13:13

Good volumes today, with most of it seemingly sells at 137p being nicely absorbed.

Hopefully this is finally the end of an overhang and the start of the upwards turn!

[roddiemac2] 30/9/2016 09:10

WatsonN,

One of the problems here is that many people dipped their toe in here at double the current price. Your timing looks to be right .

[corrientes] 29/9/2016 16:38

Surely, can only be due to the potential of today's OPEC news which is hardly life threatening. Typical ; a tiny bit of minor bad news and the price drops, but any good news is totally ignored. The feeling that small companies are doomed, carries on a pace.

[watsonnimrod] 29/9/2016 15:54

I'm really confused by this drop in share price. Say what you want about Gama, it's a bloody good operation with an outstanding CEO. They have weathered every storm in the fickle private jet market and have solid contracts. I'm going to dip my toe in here.

[igoe104] 29/9/2016 14:12

Must admit I`m tempted to top up at this level, especially when they are predicting a big improvement in H2, you could think Gama is on its knees by looking at share price and the chart, which certainly isn't the case.

Outlook: Stronger second half performance expected with full year broadly in line with management expectations
·        Strong US trading performance expected to continue in H2
·        EU Air benefitting from cost reductions implemented during the period
·        EU Ground traditionally stronger H2 supported by longer term contracts within a challenging European market
·        Further progress expected in MENA with a promising contract pipeline
·        The Board expects a stronger second half performance and full year results to be broadly in line with management expectations

·        Growth strategy in place to double the scale of the business over the next two years

[rivaldo] 23/9/2016 11:38

Thx for the IC Buy tip paleje. Just looks like a determined seller, exacerbated by stop-losses as roddie says.

Given the illiquidity we know that it could rise as quickly as it's fallen. Let's hope the bounce from today's low continues.

Latest forecasts continue to show forecast EPS of around 27p EPS this year and 29p EPS next year:

2016 2017
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
W H Ireland Ltd 22-09-16 BUY 12.79 26.11 2.77 14.48 28.81 2.77
Cantor Fitzgerald 19-09-16 HOLD 11.87 27.52 1.97 13.53 29.03 2.04

[roddiemac2] 23/9/2016 10:50

Investors exercising a stop loss probably are exacerbating the fall.Anyone buying early in 2014, when they were Hangar 8, is now losing over 100p .How many investors hang on to a losing share in this scenario ? Europe looks a very unhappy place , and this is what is dragging the shares down. whilst realising the risks, I rather rashly put a fair quantity of these in my ISA. At my age I should have known better.

[scapital] 23/9/2016 09:43

It has been quite difficult as they haven't been offering much stock, but I've been adding this morning. Comfortable holding this for a while.

[paleje] 23/9/2016 09:18

Can't understand the share price dip this week, ST gave them a strong write-up which should be in today's magazine, too early to paste full article but he reiterateed buy with 220p initial target, saying European shortfall is more than compensated by acquisitions and strong US growth, his conclusion:-

" Indeed, analysts expect the company’s net borrowings to decline from $13.2m at the half year stage to $3.8m at the end of the year, so balance sheet gearing could be less than 8 per cent of shareholders funds by the year-end. In turn, this offers scope for the board to at least maintain last year’s dividend of 2.5p a share. It also offers scope for the board to make further strategic acquisitions to scale up the business. The aim is to double its size within the next couple of years. Strategically, that makes a lot of sense as scaling up the fleet size has a positive impact on contract value and ancillary service volumes such as fuel, training and insurance, and gives management greater leverage during negotiations with suppliers.

So, having taken into consideration the profitability of each of Gama’s regional segments, and the trading back drop too, I am comfortable maintaining my buy recommendation and 220p target price with the shares trading on just six times earnings estimates. Buy."

[rivaldo] 21/9/2016 14:29

Cheers scapital. If you (or anyone) could post a copy of the tip that would be appreciated.

[larva] 20/9/2016 15:48

please post

[scapital] 20/9/2016 15:42

Simon Thompson from IC with a 220 target

[corrientes] 20/9/2016 15:10

Reasonable volume now. Minor price movement seems more like MM's playing around with spread. Come on ; where/who are you GMAA ?

[rivaldo] 20/9/2016 15:07

Tipped where scapital? Doesn't seem to be having much effect :o))

[scapital] 20/9/2016 12:31

Been tipped today

[spooky] 20/9/2016 12:14

Buy volume picking up.

[scapital] 20/9/2016 08:35

I've added following the director's buy.

[rivaldo] 19/9/2016 15:39

RNS - director buying. Good to see the very highly respected Nigel Payne buying £25,000 of GMAA stock at 165p:

[twirl] 19/9/2016 11:25

The market had the trading statement 2 months ago and the H1 EBITDA announced today is exactly as forecast at $7.5m. Turnover on a constant currency basis rose by 16.3% cf the trading statement minimum of 7.3%.

The market did not react particularly positively to the trading statement and the recent rise has been presumably in anticipation of better EBITDA and more positive outlook.

So presumably the pre results buyers are now selling and we return to where we were before.

I don't think the Board do enough to promote the share to investors and bearing in mind the size of their holding expect they will take it private if it stays sub 200p much longer. IMHO

[rivaldo] 19/9/2016 10:53

Volumes are tiny, so it seems more related to illiquidity and perhaps small traders taking profits after the recent price rise than anything else.

Indeed paleje - consensus forecast is 25.93p EPS, which is why I assumed 24p-25p EPS this year, for now anyway.

Cantor Fitzgerald have retained their 200p target this morning.

[roddiemac2] 19/9/2016 10:45

Yes, you can`t fight the market. The most obvious risk looks to be Europe, meanwhile the US is more than compensating: doubts persist.

[paleje] 19/9/2016 09:10

I think 'broadly in line' is usually taken as lower end or close miss but the performance aside from Europe seemed ok to me and as Rivaldo says they certainly have ambition. PER of 7 seems cheap, the market obviously wants em even cheaper.

[corrientes] 19/9/2016 08:47

So much for optimism !

[rivaldo] 19/9/2016 08:41

Today's interims are are reassuring overall if a little confusing to my small brain!

The outlook is most important, stating that there will be a stronger H2 and that the full year will be broadly in line with expectations.

We can therefore expect around 24p-25p adjusted EPS this year, and perhaps more if H2 trading continues to improve.

The Balance Sheet is sound, and GMAA hope to "double the scale of the business over the next 2 years", so they're certainly ambitious. It looks like there are more acquisitions in the frame.

[scapital] 13/9/2016 10:49

Seriously undervalued here. This is going to be my next BOO.