Gama Aviation Share Discussion Threads

[twirl] 20/7/2016 16:46

and makes their price target of 200p very conservative - having a fwd PEG of around 1

[rivaldo] 20/7/2016 08:35

Roddie, the only specific info I have re Cantor are their new forecasts:

this year : 27.52p EPS, 1.97p divi
next year : 29.03p EPS, 2.04p divi

These are slightly lower than before, but still make GMAA look extremely cheap at this price, especially with such a sound, cash-rich Balance Sheet.

And those forecasts are actually higher than WH Ireland's!

[roddiemac2] 19/7/2016 19:48

rivaldo,

Do you know what justification Cantors gave for dropping the target price? I think that holders would not have been easily " persuaded " to sell at this price.

[rivaldo] 19/7/2016 16:15

Good performance today given the sells, with the bid price solid at 165p - it's only the offer price which has dropped.

The 59k seller at 155p was presumably pretty desperate! With him out of the way perhaps the bounce back can continue.

I note that Cantors have today reduced their target price for GMAA to 200p (and perhaps are "persuading" one or two of their clients to exit). Of course this has nothing whatsoever to do with their sacking and being replaced by Jefferies as NOMAD and broker only last month.... :o))

How petty is that...and yet, I've seen it happen so many times before when a NOMAD/broker is replaced. It doesn't do their reputation any good and just looks pathetic.

[twirl] 19/7/2016 12:36

yes quite a few sells since I posted and 20p spread was dissuading buyers

[roddiemac2] 19/7/2016 11:28

There is now plenty of stock out there; it looks as though someone is liquidating .
I have just driven a hard bargain at 175p.

[twirl] 19/7/2016 11:16

I take your point but I spread bet as its tax free and use dummy trades to form an impression of supply and demand.I daresay if I called IG I could have bought more than shown online.

[roddiemac2] 19/7/2016 09:48

twirl ,

There are advantages to having a good old fashioned broker. I was offered 3,000 shares at 184p a few minutes ago.

[twirl] 19/7/2016 09:10

IG dummy trades indicate demand exceeds supply as can sell 50k but buy only 10 shares online at quoted prices. To buy more need to pay 199p.

[rivaldo] 18/7/2016 14:10

Indeed roddiemac - just moved up 5p on a 750 share purchase....

[roddiemac2] 18/7/2016 10:27

Falls here have been exacerbated by poor liquidity. It will not take much to move the shares up significantly.

[rivaldo] 18/7/2016 09:54

WH Ireland have retained their forecast of 24.42p EPS this year (with a 2.48p dividend), and 27.03p EPS next year.

GMAA are significantly undervalued on that basis.

[rivaldo] 13/7/2016 14:26

This article also states GMAA looks a buy at these levels:



"Meanwhile, Gama Aviation(LSE: GMAA) also reported today. The business aviation service provider said revenues will be no less than $205m for the half year to 30 June, while EBITDA will be at least $7.5m.

These figures have been recorded during a challenging period for Gama, with Europe in particular proving difficult for the company. In the short run, the company doesn't think that this situation will change, but believes the initiatives launched earlier in the year to optimise and right-size the European business and its cost base are already beginning to have a positive impact on its performance.

With Gama trading on a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of just 0.6, its shares offer growth prospects at a very reasonable price. And while its outlook is uncertain, such a wide margin of safety indicates that now could be a good time to buy it for the long term".

[twirl] 13/7/2016 08:23

A max 9% fall in EBITA but going forward a 13% sterling weakness as of today cf to fx $/£ 1.5 indicates a 20% drop in EBITA in next full year. That seems to be the worst of it.

Looks good at these levels

[rivaldo] 01/7/2016 09:07

Another good-looking earnings-enhancing acquisition just announced:



Looks a great deal, with £0.7m EBITDA acquired for only £3m.

These "privately owned Gatwick based businesses offering a full complement of airworthiness management services" offer great continuing income in a growing sector and at a growing airport (which may or may not benefit exponentially if Gatwick wins and Heathrow loses re the new runway).

[rivaldo] 30/6/2016 14:41

WH Ireland's forecasts on initiation a couple of weeks ago are lower than the now-departed Cantor's:

this year : 24.42p EPS, 2.48p divi
next year : 27.03p EPS, 2.48p divi

They have a 340p target price, way above the current share price.

[corrientes] 28/6/2016 12:46

rivaldo - I wish you'd stop telling us about this 350p - 400p valuation. Seems every time you do it, the price goes down. Maybe that's your plan ?

[rivaldo] 17/6/2016 07:16

Good news today - Jefferies have been appointed as Nomad and broker, replacing Cantor, who don't appear to have done a very good job to date. Their notes were nicely informative, but they haven't promoted the company at all to the investment community AFAICS. A more proactive broker might get the share price back to the 350p-400p level where it should be imho.

[twirl] 13/6/2016 14:41

Yes and any Brexit effect could easily be reversed

[rivaldo] 13/6/2016 14:01

GMAA do refer to it indirectly in that they specifically say that expectations for performance are unchanged on a constant currency basis.

There may be a currency effect for H1 on non-US operations translation, but of course we wait to see whether this reverses or continues in H2.

[twirl] 13/6/2016 13:06

Mmmm. Surprised they did not refer to the exchange rate!

The falling exchange rate and prospect of a greater Brexit fall in £ vs $ has weighed on this since all earnings are in $.

The rate has fell to around 1.4 compared with the following statement from the Annual results rns in April.

"All results above are for continuing operations and calculated at a constant foreign exchange rate of $1.6 to GBP1"

[rivaldo] 13/6/2016 09:07

RNS out - confirmation that all is well with GMAA.

There's absolutely no reason for the recent fall apart from share price illiquidity and a silly overreaction to the small part of the business relating to European air which wasn't doing so well:



"The Board of Gama Aviation plc notes the recent decline in its share price. Gama Aviation published its results for the period ended 31 December 2015 on 21 April 2016, since that date there has been no change in the Board's expectations for the performance of the Group (on a constant currency basis) in the current year to those expressed at that time."

[adamb1978] 12/6/2016 14:54

I used to hold HGR8 and have had these on the watch-list ever since the merger. Is there any reason behind the 10% drop in June?