Gama Aviation Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 21/4/2016 09:48

Cantor Fitzgerald retain their Buy and 400p valuation today:

[rivaldo] 21/4/2016 08:10

Agreed they should have mentioned the borrowings, although it's possible these ares secured against the $14.8m of property, plant and equipment, in which case they can be happily netted off. More digging required I think.

GMAA certainly emphasise the likelihood of acquisitions, so the net cash is likely to be utilised soon.

Operating cash inflows were $12.2m, and there do appear to be significant one-offs which affected the overall outflow, like the $14.6m decrease in deferred revenue which may be due to the Hangar 8 transition. More digging again.

Overall, I see GMAA as a global market leader and a consolidator which will at some point be re-rated. Whether that will happen sooner or later is another matter.

[wjccghcc] 21/4/2016 07:55

I want to like them but cashflow is pretty appalling with an outflow of $16.6mm.

Depends if the working capital outflow is a oneoff result of the merger or is part of the ongoing nature of the business. It's also a bit disingenious for them to not mention that they actually have net debt of $9mm.

Not one for me until it gets more transparent.

[rivaldo] 21/4/2016 07:36

Results are out - the adjusted PBT and EPS look nicely ahead of forecasts.

The dividend at 2.5c, i.e 1.78p, is ahead of forecasts too (forecast was 1.62p).

Adjusted EPS is 27.8p per Note 5 at 39.19c - this compares to the 23.88p forecast.

Pretty complicated set of results to look through. The summary is that the US and Asia are doing really well, the Middle East is also doing fine, and Europe is challenging.

In particular, GMAA have $8.5m cash, with $3m more to come from airplane sales, and are definitively looking to make already identified acquisitions.

[roddiemac2] 20/4/2016 21:52

I had an email from Kevin Godley CFO saying " please keep your eye open on the bulletins as we will be announcing results shortly "

[roddiemac2] 20/4/2016 14:58

I have emailed the company twice today ,asking if a date has been fixed for the announcement of results: so far no reply.

[igoe104] 20/4/2016 10:13

Gama sees medium to heavy private jets dominating Middle East business aircraft market.

[chasbas] 15/4/2016 17:13

On 26th Jan with the trading statement the company said: "The Board expects to publish its full year results by the middle of April 2016." I guess they will publish early next week but I think they are a little sloppy not to publish this week? Meanwhile I agree and appreciate your comments though I do find the selling a little unnerving.

Do you look at any comparator companies? BBA Aviation seems an excellent company but has a mkt cap of £2bn and the shares are down over the last couple of years. I think Gama's fundamentals look good but I may be wrong. Why has BBA been a relatively poor performer if business aviation is a good industry? I am not clear how strong Gama's business model/competitive position is vs BBA (Signature) and General Dynamics (Jet Aviation)? Maybe Gama isn't big enough?

[rivaldo] 15/4/2016 16:22

No probs chasbas. IMO there's usually absolutely no relevance from share price movements to actual trading. PEG this week announced trading ahead of expectations and an acquisition - the market had absolutely no expectation built in for this. Again, CAR's share price bore no relation to its recent excellent trading statement and prospects. There are many, many examples.

I say usually, though sometimes a continuous and long-term decline is too much to ignore and does presage a poor statement. GMAA's share price chart is basically level over the last two years, and its illiquidity works both ways - hopefully the trading statement will see a sharp re-rating upwards.

[chasbas] 12/4/2016 12:17

Thanks for article Rivaldo. Potentially very positive. But there has been small but steady selling in recent days ahead of results scheduled for this week. Given results are likely to be good I am worried. Any thoughts anyone? Shares are lowly rated IMO.

[rivaldo] 10/4/2016 10:46

Management did indeed buy 65,000 shares at 268p chasbas. You did well buying at 265p - as with any stock, if there's a willing seller at the right price you can get extremely lucky.

Very good and long article here about GMAA's Asian expansion and other matters - it seems there's lots of news in the pipeline:

Extracts:

"GAMA Aviation Shaping Strategy for Asia-Pac Region
by Ian Sheppard
April 8, 2016, 9:00 PM

GAMA Aviation (Booth P362) is exhibiting here just over a year after it formed GAMA Aviation Hutchison (Hong Kong) Ltd., a 50:50 joint venture with Hutchison Whampoa. The joint venture, which now operates three aircraft on behalf of their owners, is based in Hong Kong but also “has access” to maintenance facilities in Beijing.

Keith Marshall, senior executive with GAMA Aviation based in Hong Kong, told AIN, “We’ve been really getting to grips with what is essentially a GAMA template for a ‘node’ in the Group–which can also draw on Group competencies.”

A former British Army helicopter pilot turned aerospace executive, Marshall has been running the operation in Hong for about a year now. “It took a couple of years [before that] to establish the joint venture with Hutchison–up until a year ago when we booked some aircraft under management and put people in place.

“We’ve started to put together a regional platform for Asia Pacific, which is in two parts really–China, with all its particular challenges, and the rest of the region, such as Indonesia and the Philippines,” said Marshall. “So now we have the [aircraft] management and [maintenance] capability that allows us to reach into China. We have established relationships in Beijing and elsewhere in the region and we’re already starting to spread our wings.”

Marshall said that there had been progress that he could not yet divulge, but that he expected that the company would be ready to make some announcements at some point this year. “We’ve got a strategy and a plan–and yes we’ll be developing FBOs and other capabilities in the region.”.....

....GAMA’s headquarters remains at Farnborough in the UK, but in recent years it has established Geneva, Sharjah and Glasgow facilities as well as ventures in the U.S. where it operates and support aircraft for membership operator Wheels Up.

Most recently, it acquired Aviation Beauport, an FBO operation in Jersey, UK, which is now GAMA Aviation Jersey. This has added four more aircraft to GAMA’s fleet “and brings light jets into the charter fleet,” said Daines.

In Glasgow, GAMA “just went through the formal launch of Hangar 2,” noted Daines, while in continental Europe, he said, GAMA had just signed a contract for a hangar facility in Nice, France. “It’s an interesting bizav entry point, and movements can get intense there,” he said.

Daines also said there would be some “interesting news” on the helicopter side soon, which GAMA+ hopes to announce before this year’s EBACE show in Geneva."

[corrientes] 08/4/2016 09:29

For a company quite close to results day, trading volumes are minimal. Hope there's a wake up next week with some good news. Primae facie, the omens look good, but who knows.

[rivaldo] 04/4/2016 15:26

Good positive turnaround today.

Nice one chasbas. With results due in the next week or two - where we already know that they'll be good - I'm sure the market will latch on to GMAA at some stage, be it in the run-up or afterwards.

[chasbas] 29/3/2016 12:28

Just topped up below 280p - surely a buying opportunity? Results due on 8th April. Lowly rated despite strong merger benefits to flow through in second half + exciting growth prospects. What am I missing? Even chart looks good...

[rivaldo] 22/3/2016 12:00

Making good progress now, with buying at 288p.

With 30.2p EPS forecast for this year GMAA is still on a single-digit P/E, so lots of upside imo for a market leader and consolidator.

[roddiemac2] 21/3/2016 16:29

goliard,

my little bot gets tired sitting in front of a computer.

Yours ,
Action man

On a serious note , some of my best investments took a long time to be " noticed . " You would seem to have done the right thing by getting a decent holding before these do get noticed.

[goliard] 21/3/2016 12:41

Agreed. I am a little bot bored waiting for 400p to be broken (never mind 300p) but willing to be patient and these are quite a big holding for me.

[igoe104] 21/3/2016 10:24

Not much stock around, any positive news should make these fly.

not long to wait to find out, 3-4 weeks.

With directors buying decent amounts, fuel prices looking very favourable. previous statements looking bullish, it should be a interesting next 5-6 weeks for the s/p.

[corrientes] 21/3/2016 10:11

I did. LOL.

[someuwin] 21/3/2016 09:43

Something's set it off.

[rivaldo] 21/3/2016 09:20

A little buying this morning causing a tick up - hopefully we'll get a nice run-up before the results "by the middle of April 2016", which we know will be at least in line with expectations.

Buyers now paying the full offer price, which hasn't been the case for a while.

[rivaldo] 17/3/2016 09:09

This looks like good (and important) news:



"Gama Aviation's U.S. Division Secures EASA TCO Approval
by Kerry Lynch
March 16, 2016, 11:26 AM

Gama Aviation’s U.S. aviation division received third-country operator authorization from EASA, becoming one of the first operators to receive the recognition.

Beginning in November, the authorization is slated to become a requirement for commercial operators outside Europe to operate within the European Union countries/territories and the European Free Trade Association.

Introduced by EASA in May 2014, the authorization enables operators to fly under a single safety authorization throughout the EU and other affected European countries.....

.....In addition to receipt of third-country operator authorization, GAMA has been working with smaller operators and owners on compliance with EASA’s new Part-NCC (non-commercial complex), which, beginning in August, will require many non-commercial business aircraft operators to comply with a regulatory framework similar to that of commercial operators.

GAMA noted that many operators are unprepared for those new requirements, including the need for operations and management systems in place. “We feel there is still a great deal of uncertainty amongst the industry regarding the new regulations with some confusion over how they are going to be applied,” said Duncan Daines, chief marketing officer at Gama Aviation. “We have the experience and depth of resource within our team to provide advice to smaller operators and aircraft owners which will ensure they are fully compliant with the new requirements and won’t see their operations grounded come August.”"

[rivaldo] 10/3/2016 13:31

Hi roddiemac, good to see you here. Hopefully this will be a multibagger like FSJ!

Only a month to go until the results now.

OT : I repurchased just a few FSJ in the 900p's, but am surprised it's risen so much. I'd prefer it to fall so I could buy some more!