Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Ferrexpo LSE:FXPO London Ordinary Share GB00B1XH2C03 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.50p -0.27% 185.60p 185.80p 186.00p 187.60p 180.60p 184.80p 2,310,820 16:35:24
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Industrial Metals 798.7 187.4 25.9 7.4 1,092.49

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Date Time Title Posts
20/5/201611:42Ferrexpo thread with charts764
21/9/201511:22BUY AND HOLD in Ferrexpo (FXPO) 2

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Ferrexpo (FXPO) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2017-06-23 16:02:11185.566,50012,061.59NT
2017-06-23 16:02:09184.76438809.24NT
2017-06-23 16:01:25185.64328608.89NT
2017-06-23 15:41:40184.57389717.99NT
2017-06-23 15:41:40184.578,16715,074.15NT
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Ferrexpo (FXPO) Top Chat Posts

Ferrexpo Daily Update: Ferrexpo is listed in the Industrial Metals sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker FXPO. The last closing price for Ferrexpo was 186.10p.
Ferrexpo has a 4 week average price of 165.10p and a 12 week average price of 137p.
The 1 year high share price is 197.40p while the 1 year low share price is currently 28.50p.
There are currently 588,624,142 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 3,544,216 shares. The market capitalisation of Ferrexpo is £1,092,486,407.55.
bellbottom: I am still confused as to last week's surge in price up to the high 190's in view of the iron ore price and the longer term predictions for a general lull in price in a range of $45 to $55 per ton through 2017 and 2018. At $45 per ton, how should this accurately be reflected in the FXPO share price? I know there are other factors involved and FXPO has the advantage of selling a greater proportion of the 65% FE pellet. Are they still on course to be debt free/cash positive in 2019? 2nd Q production report on 6th July - that should be interesting.
gilesgraves: Yes totally agree. Im doing some research this morning and I could see this having a retrace. JP Morgan have lowered their forecast from 195 to 180. Most of the forecasts are much lower but they have always been pessimistic on FXPO throughout its rise so thats not really an indicator. Iron ore is doing dreadfully. It could have bottomed out though but we are so far away from what was parity with FXPO share price. If FXPO had followed the same path as iron ore the Share price would be 130p by now. We have no major news as far as I can see. The weaker pound would have helped as FXPO's income is mainly in dollars. I see a huge buy was registered after hours on the 9th of over £800k at £1.95. I wonder whether that has been filled over the last few days and whether it is in fact a Buy...If it was in fact a Sell then Monday could be the start of a downtrend to more 'normal' levels. Thinking aloud and would welcome a view better informed than mine from others reading this.
gilesgraves: Looking at seasonality graph of iron ore. Easily googleable. April is the dip and beginning of May is the cheapest point in the year to buy. Another point of reference that gives me confidence that this is the start of a new wave up for the FXPo share price.
jjhbev: Only a couple of days to results. What will they show - & how will the market react??? As regards the 2016FY results I guess we are all expecting good/very good figures. To briefly recap, the figures for the first half were Average Iron Ore Price $52 per ton (lousy first quarter) Average Fxpo Price $76 per ton (lousy Q1 premiums) EBITDA $160m Net Prof $78m For H2 we know costs increased versus H1 but that prices & premiums also increased. In fact Q3 was quite flat as compared with Q2 and it was only in Q4 that things changed dramatically (I will comment further on this in a separate post on cash v debt). My estimates for H2 are for EBITDA around $240m Net Prof around $140m Much will depend on what premium levels they achieved and how much costs (particularly energy & transport) have increased. If the H2 Net Profit figure is correct then the 2016 full year figure is around £180m. This equates to a “backward looking” P/E multiple of 5.5X IMO the current year figures for Fxpo will blow those figures out of the water. IMO Fxpo can well be generating EBITDA of $60m per mth (subject to production/sales of 900+kt per mth) and that this would equate to Net Profits of $40m++ per month. If that is correct the results for just Jan & Feb – a Net Profit of approx $85m – would exceed the Net Profit for H1 2016. Also, the net profit for Q1 2017 would be close to the figure for H2 2016. At present, no one is expecting the current level of Iron Ore pricing to be sustained – but if it were to be then Fxpo should/would warrant an share price well in excess of double its current level. I am not at all assuming that this will happen but :- (a) I do believe that the debt concerns re Fxpo are no longer justified and hopefully this will become reflected in its P/E multiple (b) Personally I believe that the Deutsche Bank target price is justified based on an Iron Ore price around $60 per ton. That’s just my opinion! (and not an unreasonable Iron ore price to look at). (c) My opinions and that of the Market often differ!!!! ;-) I will review all of the above on Wednesday!!!!! Good luck all.
onedb1: Evening gents ;-) Took a look at Iron Ore prices and they closed at $85.3 , indeed lower than recent but much higher than in Jan and Feb ! Maybe its as Giles says, and I was hinting. We had or still have some insti selling. Its taken FXPO price to the all important Primary Trend line now . If the seller is smart it won't want to entice technical traders to sell. At least that is my view , but given that the seller has sold sub VWAP am not sure what they are doing . Normally a trader is instructed to have the least possible market impact for cost benefit reasons . Below the Primary trend line if the insti selling view is correct they will lose money and it won't be a smart idea to take it there . Am holding on, very close to my stop . Would be surprised if i had to sell and disappointed despite the excellent run as I still have around 230p target , which is still valid till the primary trend is confirmed as broken , so far it isn't . As on fundamentals things are going well with even Fitch upgrading FXPO's debt . Interesting to note that there is no big short against Fxpo ! Ie nobody with over 0,5%. So no shorters to blame here . I actually reckon that the trader in charge is doing a poor job of his order ! Hopefully he/she has finished. Back to my charts ;-)
bellbottom: You really can't ignore the bigger picture in Ukraine. It's the trickle down effect that will inevitably have an impact on the economy and sentiment in Ukraine. I fully admit that if the blockade gets resolved and sincere discussions take place between all parties, then it will be a fantastic platform for the country as a whole as well as its industries. But if this blockade worsens and Ukraine has to take a $2billion hit to its already weak economy, then there will be a negative hit on the share price Also, you cannot ignore the role and influence of K Zhevago in FXPO. He is major shareholder with many other business interests, which are and have taken a hit, both from shutdowns in rebel held areas and courts seizing assets as a way of recouping all those millions, whether he knew about fraudulent behaviour in his bank or not. The NBU and courts are out to make him pay and don't think there won't be further 'issues' and distractions over the coming months ansd maybe years. I really do hope that you can say to me in a few months time, 'you were wrong, just look at the share price now, well over £3.00 and still rising.' I will happily eat my words, while washing them down with champagne.
3rd eye: Ferrexpo Plc 43.8% Potential Upside Indicated by Deutsche Bank Posted by: Amilia Stone 2nd February 2017 Ferrexpo Plc using EPIC/TICKER code LON:FXPO had its stock rating noted as ‘Reiterates217; with the recommendation being set at ‘BUY’ today by analysts at Deutsche Bank. Ferrexpo Plc are listed in the Basic Materials sector within UK Main Market. Deutsche Bank have set a target price of 230 GBX on its stock. This is indicating the analyst believes there is a potential upside of 43.8% from the opening price of 160 GBX. Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has increased 27.65 points and increased 54 points respectively. Ferrexpo Plc LON:FXPO has a 50 day moving average of 141.35 GBX and the 200 Day Moving Average price is recorded at 84.20 GBX. The 52 week high for the stock is 162.28 GBX while the year low share price is currently 18.58 GBX. There are currently 581,252,528 shares in issue with the average daily volume traded being 2,513,907. Market capitalisation for LON:FXPO is £931,747,820 GBP. Ferrexpo Plc is an iron ore pellet producer. The Company produces, develops and markets its principal product, iron ore pellets, for sale to the metallurgical industry. The Company’s operations are vertically integrated from iron ore mining through to iron ore concentrate, and pellet production and subsequent logistics.
3rd eye: Ferrexpo Plc 39.5% Potential Upside Indicated by JP Morgan Cazenove Posted by: Amilia Stone 31st January 2017 Ferrexpo Plc with EPIC/TICKER LON:FXPO has had its stock rating noted as ‘Upgrades̵7; with the recommendation being set at ‘OVERWEIGHT217; today by analysts at JP Morgan Cazenove. Ferrexpo Plc are listed in the Basic Materials sector within UK Main Market. JP Morgan Cazenove have set a target price of 205 GBX on its stock. This indicates the analyst now believes there is a potential upside of 39.5% from today’s opening price of 147 GBX. Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has increased 14.65 points and increased 40.25 points respectively. Ferrexpo Plc LON:FXPO has a 50 day moving average of 140.06 GBX and a 200 day moving average of 82.94 GBX. The 52 week high share price is 154 GBX while the 52 week low for the share price is 17 GBX. There are currently 591,637,153 shares in issue with the average daily volume traded being 2,210,983. Market capitalisation for LON:FXPO is £880,356,102 GBP. Ferrexpo Plc is an iron ore pellet producer. The Company produces, develops and markets its principal product, iron ore pellets, for sale to the metallurgical industry. The Company’s operations are vertically integrated from iron ore mining through to iron ore concentrate, and pellet production and subsequent logistics.
jjhbev: Happy November! We are now starting the penultimate trading month of the year with a share price that seems – in relative terms – to be under a bit of pressure to hold at £1. Personally I cannot see why this should be the case, but it is. I suppose that there are two primary reasons:- a) The share sale/placing – both its immediate impact and the concern that it will be repeated next year b) With the share price having risen so much in the past month investors are taking profits and sitting tight. After all, the company is not due to make any announcements until 2017. I have taken the opportunity to replace and add to my holding driven by the fundamentals as I see them – i.e. 1) The iron ore price is apparently holding strong 2) China data is pretty good 3) Coking coal prices are very strong – with futures higher than current prices – driving increasing demand for higher grade ore and particularly pellets where supply is severely constrained 4) Base metal prices in general are strong (note Zinc, Aluminium etc.) so it’s very unlikely that there is a speculative bubble focused just on iron. So, I really do think that fxpo has a heck of a lot of upside potential. If we look at some basic financial fundamentals we can see:- For the half year to 30th June the figures were:- Average Iron Ore Price = $52 Average price achieved by fxpo = $76 therefore average premium was $24 China pellet premium averaged $17 and at end of period was quoted by fxpo =$22 (Atlantic etc. was higher) EBITDA = $160m Net profit for 6 months = $78m For the current period:- Average Iron Ore Price for first 4 months = $58 Pellet premium = ? (see market update below) Premiums for longer term contracts are often negotiated around this time of year for the year ahead. At the mid year results presentation the CEO was talking in terms of premiums in the low/mid $30s. For the year ahead =??? Pellet premiums are clearly much higher than in the first half and look as if they will remain very firm driven by environmental issues, exorbitant coking coal prices and supply constraints. The following comment was posted yesterday on Hellenic:- “Steel mills have begun settlements after receiving blast furnace pellet premium offers for 2017 at $45/dry mt, with annual gains expected to surpass 25% on high demand to boost quality of burden and as supply remains constrained. Pricing at least in Northeast Asia was heard getting established for premiums to settle at slightly lower levels than the offer, according to market talk Thursday. A European source said he received the offer level from Vale, but added the Brazilian group has not yet concluded any agreements for volumes next year. Other European sources last week had no settlements to share, but confirmed negotiations. Another supplier was not yet aware of settlements, but stated the offer level was well-known, and it would not be surprising for agreements to happen below this. Several economic and steel and raw materials market drivers would lead to an acceptance of higher pellet prices from last year’s accords at a headline $32/dmt level, he added. “Demand for high grade iron ore was encouraged after the spike in coking coal prices in the third quarter of 2016, as the higher the Fe grade the lower the need for coking coal in the steelmaking process,” Vale said in a quarterly statement. The prices heard are lower than current spot prices, while some suppliers had begun to price additional tons accordingly with the new annual premium target, said a source. S&P Global Platts assessed estimated Atlantic monthly contract blast furnace pellet premiums at $35/dmt for October. Premiums moved higher as new fourth-quarter pricing in the mid $30s, and spot interest ahead of annual offers took the market up from earlier contracts settlements.” DYOR, but (if you are prepared to accept the Macro & Geopolitical risks) IMO there is very significant upside here – with 4 months of results already locked in and the fifth currently looking even stronger!
alphahunter: Well, I watch the price for iron ore and when available for pellets on a daily basis. FXPO share price is benchmarked against a dozen other Iron ore producers and a couple of Ukranian industrials, and lastly, I've set-up a Ukraine and a Ferrexpo google alert. What I don't have access to is the behind-the-scene negociations about the refinancing of the debt. I'm expecting some sort of screw the minority shareholders solution. Yet the short position can still be shafted. 3rd of Feb is an important date I believe.
Ferrexpo share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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