Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Ferrexpo LSE:FXPO London Ordinary Share GB00B1XH2C03 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +1.60p +1.21% 134.10p 134.30p 134.50p 136.10p 131.80p 135.00p 1,410,326.00 16:35:11
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Industrial Metals 652.2 17.2 3.8 29.3 789.34

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Date Time Title Posts
20/5/201610:42Ferrexpo thread with charts764.00
21/9/201510:22BUY AND HOLD in Ferrexpo (FXPO) 2.00

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Ferrexpo (FXPO) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
19/01/2017 16:35:11134.10239,576321,271.42UT
19/01/2017 16:29:53134.50132177.54AT
19/01/2017 16:29:51134.501,1941,605.93AT
19/01/2017 16:29:51134.508861,191.67AT
19/01/2017 16:29:49134.401,0001,344.00AT
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Ferrexpo (FXPO) Top Chat Posts

Ferrexpo Daily Update: Ferrexpo is listed in the Industrial Metals sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker FXPO. The last closing price for Ferrexpo was 132.50p.
Ferrexpo has a 4 week average price of 133p and a 12 week average price of 127.05p.
The 1 year high share price is 154p while the 1 year low share price is currently 15.75p.
There are currently 588,624,142 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 2,914,996 shares. The market capitalisation of Ferrexpo is £789,344,974.42.
gilesgraves: Interesting to see the share price holding at this level when doubt remains over that placing. I had planned to sell until end of Jan but have bought back over the last couple of days. Watching very closely as feel it could go either way but if we get a big dip i will simply hold. The reason Ive bought back now is that I am thinking the dip will not come, and if it does it will be quick and then back up. Im thinking also but between now and the dip we may see a settle above 145. After the dip I see it going to 165 pretty swiftly and then to £2. You guys who know this share so well - I read everything you are saying and try to get my head around all your fundamentals and financial projections but to be honest its all beyond my intelligence. I will keep reading though and hopefully some of it will start to make sense!! Good luck to all.
gilesgraves: Granto are you there? What do you think to the current share price here. I remember you had a level of 120 that you were confident in. We seem to be bouncing around between 130 and 150 at the moment. How do you see the time from now until March playing out? Especially end of Jan - is the second tranche of that large share sale (end Nov 110p) a dead cert?
granto2: Mark, yes this company's share price tracks the iron ore price, this is because this company only has one product and it's Iron Ore pellets. Due to leveraging and debt this company is even more sensitive to the iron ore spot price than other companies.
gilesgraves: To me these articles have absolutely no significance to Ferrexpo. Sometimes I wonder whether articles like this are invented in order to lower the share price and create buying opportunities for those in the know. Ferrexpo is producing top grade iron ore pellets today, same as it did yesterday and same as it did at 10am this morning when the share price was 6% higher. With a 185, sorry they mean 205 (!) target, Deutsche Bank are extremely positive about this company and the iron ore market. So I am going with that and am buying £50k of FXPO shares today. It would be great to hear from Granto as to his current thoughts on this stock but I BULLISH.
jjhbev: Happy November! We are now starting the penultimate trading month of the year with a share price that seems – in relative terms – to be under a bit of pressure to hold at £1. Personally I cannot see why this should be the case, but it is. I suppose that there are two primary reasons:- a) The share sale/placing – both its immediate impact and the concern that it will be repeated next year b) With the share price having risen so much in the past month investors are taking profits and sitting tight. After all, the company is not due to make any announcements until 2017. I have taken the opportunity to replace and add to my holding driven by the fundamentals as I see them – i.e. 1) The iron ore price is apparently holding strong 2) China data is pretty good 3) Coking coal prices are very strong – with futures higher than current prices – driving increasing demand for higher grade ore and particularly pellets where supply is severely constrained 4) Base metal prices in general are strong (note Zinc, Aluminium etc.) so it’s very unlikely that there is a speculative bubble focused just on iron. So, I really do think that fxpo has a heck of a lot of upside potential. If we look at some basic financial fundamentals we can see:- For the half year to 30th June the figures were:- Average Iron Ore Price = $52 Average price achieved by fxpo = $76 therefore average premium was $24 China pellet premium averaged $17 and at end of period was quoted by fxpo =$22 (Atlantic etc. was higher) EBITDA = $160m Net profit for 6 months = $78m For the current period:- Average Iron Ore Price for first 4 months = $58 Pellet premium = ? (see market update below) Premiums for longer term contracts are often negotiated around this time of year for the year ahead. At the mid year results presentation the CEO was talking in terms of premiums in the low/mid $30s. For the year ahead =??? Pellet premiums are clearly much higher than in the first half and look as if they will remain very firm driven by environmental issues, exorbitant coking coal prices and supply constraints. The following comment was posted yesterday on Hellenic:- “Steel mills have begun settlements after receiving blast furnace pellet premium offers for 2017 at $45/dry mt, with annual gains expected to surpass 25% on high demand to boost quality of burden and as supply remains constrained. Pricing at least in Northeast Asia was heard getting established for premiums to settle at slightly lower levels than the offer, according to market talk Thursday. A European source said he received the offer level from Vale, but added the Brazilian group has not yet concluded any agreements for volumes next year. Other European sources last week had no settlements to share, but confirmed negotiations. Another supplier was not yet aware of settlements, but stated the offer level was well-known, and it would not be surprising for agreements to happen below this. Several economic and steel and raw materials market drivers would lead to an acceptance of higher pellet prices from last year’s accords at a headline $32/dmt level, he added. “Demand for high grade iron ore was encouraged after the spike in coking coal prices in the third quarter of 2016, as the higher the Fe grade the lower the need for coking coal in the steelmaking process,” Vale said in a quarterly statement. The prices heard are lower than current spot prices, while some suppliers had begun to price additional tons accordingly with the new annual premium target, said a source. S&P Global Platts assessed estimated Atlantic monthly contract blast furnace pellet premiums at $35/dmt for October. Premiums moved higher as new fourth-quarter pricing in the mid $30s, and spot interest ahead of annual offers took the market up from earlier contracts settlements.” DYOR, but (if you are prepared to accept the Macro & Geopolitical risks) IMO there is very significant upside here – with 4 months of results already locked in and the fifth currently looking even stronger!
mark_jm: I wonder what discount to valuation we should apply for the political risk? Ive always said to my self that what ever happens, they still have all that iron in the ground, and the share price has a very strong correlation to iron ore price, so long as iron ore price stays some where close to where it is now 120/140p would seem a decent share price . Im in at an ave price of 61p and happy to run for the long term waiting a few years for 250p then ill cash out.
granto2: I think you need to talk in terms of EBITDA rather than straight operating profit. I think EBITDA will be close to $380m for 2016. So at first glance this looks very unvalued. But, the market is cautious because 1, Iron ore production is set to dramatically rise next year driving prices down, 2, the company still carries a dangerous debt burden with no reschedule announcements in a tight frost bond market 3, Ukraine is still potentially volatile 4, the CEO damaged the company's reputation when it lost $175m in his personal bank in Ukraine never to be recovered. 5, why has production declined slightly but significantly? 6, the debt due dates are very short spread over 4 years rather than 8 to 10 years for this mountain. it's a tall order to meet so aggressively. Conclusion: This is a cash generator with a simple business model and established market. The pellet market should prove more resilient to next years iron ore production increase globally and the premiums paid for pellets should remain high in China with new and ongoing Govt support for their use. The share price here may edge up higher only if the winter proves kind to Iron Ore spot 2017 I expect this to rise again when 1, the annual results are released in March and 2,if the CEO CFO get a debt restructure mid 2017. failing that the share price will gradually rise as the debt gets paid off and the risk reduced. looks a good bet if you fancy iron ore pellets and debt risk companies.
3rd eye: Ferrexpo Plc 101.7% Potential Upside Indicated by Cantor Fitzgerald......... hxxp:// Opened out........ Ferrexpo Plc with EPIC/TICKER LON:FXPO had its stock rating noted as ‘Reiterates217; with the recommendation being set at ‘BUY’ this morning by analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald. Ferrexpo Plc are listed in the Basic Materials sector within UK Main Market. Cantor Fitzgerald have set a target price of 117 GBX on its stock. This is indicating the analyst believes there is a potential upside of 101.7% from the opening price of 58 GBX. Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has increased 25.75 points and increased 22.25 points respectively. Ferrexpo Plc LON:FXPO has a 50 day moving average of 37.68 GBX and the 200 Day Moving Average price is recorded at 30.80 GBX. The 52 week high for the stock is 71 GBX while the year low share price is currently 12.5 GBX. There are currently 594,125,512 shares in issue with the average daily volume traded being 934,610. Market capitalisation for LON:FXPO is £350,534,052 GBP. Ferrexpo Plc is an iron ore pellet producer. The Company produces, develops and markets its principal product, iron ore pellets, for sale to the metallurgical industry. The Company’s operations are vertically integrated from iron ore mining through to iron ore concentrate, and pellet production and subsequent logistics. It operates approximately two mines and a processing plant near Kremenchug in Ukraine, and an interest in a port in Odessa, and sales.
firtashia: This one reminds me of STY which was on a ridiculously low P/E due to debt refinancing concerns. Once financial backing was secured the share price rocketed in a very short space of time. However STY is an illiquid microcap with limited II investment. FXPO is on the radar of II'S but it will take them a while to build substantial positions in FXPO. Compare the average daily volumes traded (consistently >1 million) since the announcements around late Jul-early Aug with those volumes before. The recent earnings upgrades caused by the rise in iron ore prices will help sentiment too. Very healthy volumes again today, too & hopefully it will continue for a few weeks yet. GLAH.
alphahunter: Well, I watch the price for iron ore and when available for pellets on a daily basis. FXPO share price is benchmarked against a dozen other Iron ore producers and a couple of Ukranian industrials, and lastly, I've set-up a Ukraine and a Ferrexpo google alert. What I don't have access to is the behind-the-scene negociations about the refinancing of the debt. I'm expecting some sort of screw the minority shareholders solution. Yet the short position can still be shafted. 3rd of Feb is an important date I believe.
Ferrexpo share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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