Crest Nicholson Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 02/3/2017 09:45

Just had a look through the history of Millennium's UK short positions. It doesn't seem your typical deep conviction shorter holding positions for a long time. Instead it seems to chop and change quite frequently. It has had fairly recent short positions in Bellway, Bovis and Taylor Wimpey as well as Crest Nicholson. But if you look at its history in any one stock (not just the housebuilders) you'll see it making a lot of changes to its positions, both up and down.

So I think it is credible that it might start to reduce in the near term if the Crest position continues to move against it, unless of course it is paired with something that is making them more money than they're losing on the Crest side.

[1gw] 01/3/2017 14:09

This has got to be causing a bit of stress in Millennium. While I stand by my earlier comment that institutional shorters generally seem to have strong convictions and deep pockets, I noticed Millennium did take a bit off the table on 21st Feb (taking advantage of a dip) before adding to their short again on 23rd. It would be wonderful to see them reducing and chasing the shareprice higher today rather than adding.

[nigelbarker] 01/3/2017 10:14

Go Crest GO GO...... too

[1gw] 01/3/2017 09:30

Go Crest Go!

(with apologies in advance if it now crashes)

[pillion] 27/2/2017 21:01

Monthly chart


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[pillion] 27/2/2017 20:56

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[pillion] 27/2/2017 20:43

Good finish today
Still below pre-earthquake last June

[1gw] 27/2/2017 19:04

Both up again in the latest FCA spreadsheet:

1.03% short: Millenium (as of 23/2)
0.70% short: Insight (as of 22/2)

So far, the shareprice is shrugging this short pressure off and it makes me wonder where the shareprice would be if it hadn't had this headwind during February. But it's still a bit of a concern that we now have 2 companies apparently intent on building a short position.

Of course if there's the right bit of good news (further IPRS deal or some M&A in the sector?) then it could create the right conditions for a squeeze.

[1gw] 23/2/2017 20:57

A new shorter on the list, but Millenium has taken a tiny bit off the table:

Millenium (short position)
0.63% 1st Feb
0.70% 2nd Feb
0.84% 6th Feb
0.90% 8th Feb
1.00% 13th Feb
0.97% 21st Feb

Insight Investment Management (short position)
0.57% 21st Feb

[pillion] 16/2/2017 19:44

Calvin
here, and

When magenta line is below black line and both are below share price and pointing up....

Not to be taken too seriously of course
Charts are history

[calvin1947] 16/2/2017 17:25

Pillion

Can you explain the Gold Cross indicator on the graph.

Thanks

[pillion] 16/2/2017 15:57

Gold Cross in place -- good indicator

[1gw] 15/2/2017 21:07

Pillion - there's an excellent tef thread on LSE (London south east).

[pillion] 15/2/2017 20:58

1gw
Do you fancy starting a new TEF thread ? please.....

The current one is not brilliant

I hold some TEF and will probably top up soon
Cheers
Pillion

[calvin1947] 15/2/2017 18:42

Galliford Try reporting Interim on Tuesday the 21st.

[1gw] 15/2/2017 17:46

Crest is my biggest holding and TEF my 2nd biggest! But I have TEF's next update down as not until 12th April?

[pillion] 15/2/2017 17:39

Here is a tiddler to add to your list 1gw



CRST is my main holding --

[1gw] 15/2/2017 17:29

Feels like a great setup going into the next couple of weeks' reports:
20th Feb: Bovis finals
22nd Feb: Barratt interims
27th Feb: Persimmon finals
28th Feb: TW finals
...and probably 1 or 2 I've missed.

Momentum clearly with the Crest share price it appears, so a good reporting season will hopefully add fuel to the fire.

What would be really good would be to see Millenium has changed its mind and started reducing its short, although normally institutional shorters seem to have fairly strong convictions and deep pockets.

[1gw] 15/2/2017 16:03

Millenium were still increasing their short as of 13th Feb:

0.63% 1st Feb
0.70% 2nd Feb
0.84% 6th Feb
0.90% 8th Feb
1.00% 13th Feb

[1gw] 15/2/2017 15:56

Good volume now as well.

[1gw] 15/2/2017 15:06

Odd day's trading. Held unnaturally flat for most of the day then sudden spike. I would have thought Crest was too big and too liquid for the price to be held at a level while an order is filled.

Or given the timing of the spike does it just indicate some US interest?

Maybe even Millenium deciding to reduce its short position?

[1gw] 10/2/2017 19:56

Millenium really going for it on their short:

0.63% 1st Feb
0.70% 2nd Feb
0.84% 6th Feb
0.90% 8th Feb

And on the 8th, the share price closed up 12p despite their increased short position.

[scanjet17] 10/2/2017 14:13

Phil Oakley's weekly roundup for Sharescope subscribers features a search for stocks with dividend qualities. Search parameters:

Dividend yield of at least 3%
Forecast dividend growth of at least 10%
Forecast dividend cover of at least 1.5 times.

Which instument came out top? Well, Galliford Try (GFRD) did actually.

Which instrument came second?

Yep, you guessed it.

[1gw] 09/2/2017 10:29

The sale is not particularly unusual for the Tinkers.

In Feb'17 Helen Tinker sold 188k shares (latest rns)
In Mar'16 Chris Tinker transferred 118k shares to charities & then sold them
In Sep'15 Helen Tinker sold 200k shares
In Apr'15 Chris Tinker transferred 181k shares to charities & then sold them

In April 2016, following exercise of some options there was an rns which stated that at that time the Tinkers held 1.3m shares plus 234k options.

So in that context I don't think the latest sale is of particular note.

[philo124] 08/2/2017 21:50

Chunky connected person sale.