Crest Nicholson Share Discussion Threads

[gbh2] 07/9/2016 07:57

Institutions will also be adding as we approach the ex dividend date.

[1gw] 06/9/2016 15:51

Shares on loan continued to climb in August according to the Euroclear data:

Mar 13.3m shares on loan (average)
Apr 16.0m
May 16.5m
Jun 16.8m
Jul 18.4m
Aug 19.6m

[1gw] 06/9/2016 09:35

Redrow sounding very confident on their call. "Market stable, demand remains robust".

[philo124] 01/9/2016 11:17

Nice rise ahead of next week budget.

[salpara111] 24/8/2016 14:34

Well, my initial reaction post brexit crash was a speedy return to the 450 level but every housebuilder market update in the last month has been really strong so I guess I will hold for now but would seriously consider my position if/when it crosses the £5 line.

[shaker44] 24/8/2016 10:20

out at 481. Now watch them motor....!

[shaker44] 24/8/2016 08:57

I am tempted to do that too. The sector is due a breather and any talk of usa rate rise will be an excuse to markdown...

[1gw] 24/8/2016 08:25

I've taken some more profit there at 480p.

[1gw] 23/8/2016 08:23

Perhaps worth considering the shares on loan position again here. These are the monthly averages reported by Euroclear:

Jan 21.0m shares on loan (average for month)
Feb 17.9m
Mar 13.3m
Apr 16.0m
May 16.5m
Jun 16.8m
Jul 18.4m

From which it appears the aggregate short position may have been increasing significantly from a low in March and may well have taken another leg up post-vote in July. In which case I again wonder about the potential for a decent squeeze.

Against that, there are no reported short positions on the FCA spreadsheet and it is always possible that the shares on loan are not being used to support short positions.

[philo124] 23/8/2016 07:10

That's a very good extract; should help us to £5+ here.

[1gw] 23/8/2016 07:07

A very positive statement this morning from Persimmon about current trading and the outlook.

"While the result of the EU Referendum has created increased economic uncertainty, customer interest since then has been robust with visitor numbers to our sites around 20% ahead year on year. Our private sale reservation rate since 1 July is currently 17% ahead of the same period last year. The Group is now trading through the traditionally slower summer weeks but customer demand remains encouraging and we anticipate a good autumn sales season."

[1gw] 22/8/2016 16:39

That's better - no significant give-back this time.

Persimmon half-year results to set the tone tomorrow.

[philo124] 22/8/2016 10:14

None on digital look. good 450p+.

[shaker44] 22/8/2016 09:52

yes interesting. up 3%+ in thin trade. Cant see any news of upgrades? RDW up almost as much too. Both oversold in my view

[1gw] 22/8/2016 09:34

Here we go again. Let's hope it sticks this time.

[1gw] 18/8/2016 15:28

Oh well, back to the flat line again. Some hedgie trying out a new trading algorithm?

[1gw] 18/8/2016 11:09

That's an encouraging move through 450p...

[philo124] 17/8/2016 19:59

In profit!

[gbh2] 15/8/2016 18:51

Adam, I'm not one for attempting to convince others of what I think is happening, all I can say is I'm not surprised.

[creative_accountant] 15/8/2016 15:38

Yes it does.. You are failing to grasp the simple concept that future eps is now uncertain. Markets are forward looking.. They care about what happens in the future ie future eps not historical eps which is of no value! The market clearly thinks the demographics of crest dictste that its future earnings will be hit and when valued on alternative metrics such as price to book it is not trading at a disxoint but a premium!

[adamb1978] 15/8/2016 14:37

gbh2 - its not as if they're that heavily exposed - 8 sites out of around 70 are in the London (see annual report map) and then perhaps 15-20 more in Surrey/Hampshire etc. Lots of sites further out...

[gbh2] 15/8/2016 13:56

South East expected to suffer more than other areas due to declining interest from Foreign buyers.

[adamb1978] 15/8/2016 13:39

That doesn't explain CRST's discount to PSN and TW at all - it argues for them being at the same level. I'm not debating at what level the sector should trade at - its understandable that they're being marked down similar to other cyclicals like recruiters, car dealerships etc - CRST is trading at a discount though:

PSN: Dec-16 PE of 9.3x
TW: Dec-16 PE of 9.0x
CRST: Oct-16 PE of 7.1x

[creative_accountant] 15/8/2016 13:08

Simple really.. The market is expecting future eps downgrades and thus valuation on current pe is entirely inappropriate.

Look at the book values- crest trades at a large premium to net assets of about 1.6x similar to other sector leaders like tw. And psn. This is die to high opertaing efficiency-roce. Bvs and redrow trade on low multiples of price to book due to weake roce and low yield in redrows case.