Crest Nicholson Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 05/7/2016 10:50

Still no director buys, will have a closer look at this today.

[gbh2] 05/7/2016 09:04

CPA are advocating a slowdown of growth in construction output, 3% for 3.6% during 2016 and 3.6% in 2017.

The sector drop is simply Hedge Funds driving the prices down and weakening the market !

[tjbird] 05/7/2016 08:56

hxxp://www.constructionproducts.org.uk/media/129090/cpa-forecasts-slowdown-in-construction-growth-as-risks-continue-to-rise-18apr16.pdf

CPA downgrade

[bad gateway] 05/7/2016 08:26

I missed the low here too but thats ok. Happy holding these til the remainers twig that they really have won and the UK electorate lost.
Looking forward to the share price reaction here when the penny drops with the market just not looking forward so much to the EU taking over our borders, armed forces and foreign policy.

[gbh2] 05/7/2016 07:59

I bought a few more when we hit a ^% drop, once again missing the low point, going to be interesting to see if there's more downside to come.

[wilkie_hk] 05/7/2016 07:15

Strong trading statement by Persimmon, who have primed for another excellent set of results in August. The following para was included:

'It remains too soon to judge the effect that the result of the EU Referendum will have on the UK new homes market. We believe that market fundamentals remain strong, supported by long term unfulfilled demand, and that the UK housing market will continue to provide good opportunities for those companies with the right strategic focus and the balance sheet strength to navigate future changes in trading conditions. We believe our focus on building traditional family housing in attractive locations for all purchasers from first time buyers to home movers will continue to attract customers in good numbers. The Group remains committed to building the new homes across the country that Britain needs.'

[tjbird] 04/7/2016 12:29

Construction PMI hits seven-year low


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1


The month of the EU referendum saw the UK construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dive into negative territory for the first time in more than three years.

The graph is heading in the wrong direction...
Above: The graph is heading in the wrong direction...

At 46.0 in June 2016, down from 51.2 in May, the seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK construction PMI pointed to the weakest overall performance for exactly seven years.

Any PMI score above 50 indicates growth, and the higher the score the greater the growth; a score below 50 means contraction.

With 80% of survey responses received before the referendum result was announced on 24th June, the downturn in business activity was generally linked to uncertainty in the run-up to the big vote, rather than a response to the Leave outcome.

Residential construction was the worst performing sub-category of activity, with activity falling at the fastest pace since December 2012. Civil engineering activity remained broadly stable in June, while commercial building work saw a sharp loss of momentum and posted one of its weakest readings for six-and-a-half years.

[briggs1209] 02/7/2016 17:52

I can see all the hard-hit housebuilders trading around 24 month lows within a month - so 460 ish here is quite possible. An interest rate cut this summer will give the market stability. As days turn to weeks and months and article 50 is still awaited the price will rise.

Gone long here and PSU - where else do you all see value in the sector BDEV?

[excelsior2] 02/7/2016 15:27

I agree Salpara...maybe 475-495 short term

[salpara111] 02/7/2016 11:13

My own short term target is about 450.
I suspect that for it track higher we will need to see what updates are like in about 3 months time.
Personally I don't believe that the sky is going to fall in and given that interest rates are only going lower, it would take a big rise in unemployment to see a real drop in demand for new housing given the long term supply/demand imbalance.
I do expect most of the big builders to ease off the throttle in terms of headline growth but as long as margins aren't hit the current share price will seem a bargain.

[nigelbarker] 01/7/2016 21:37

and the 9 pence dividend in sept. to look forward to as well . i can't see why it won't go back to where it was or am i dreaming.

[1gw] 01/7/2016 19:06

Looking better now.

On a closing basis it has bounced back "just" 52p, having fallen 242p (585p to 343p to 395p). So from both the chart in the header and the numbers it looks as though it wouldn't be unreasonable for it to bounce quite a bit higher from here...

[philo124] 01/7/2016 18:40

Nice move.

[master rsi] 01/7/2016 15:42

no stopping for the stock at the moment 385p +29p (+8.15%) after the large drop from Monday to Wednesday morning when I bought some

[salpara111] 01/7/2016 15:36

If I was a big US fund I would be buying stocks like this in a big way.
Bombed out valuation
Weak £
I suspect that buyers today will be handsomely rewarded in the medium term.
Unfortunately I am already a holder.

[philo124] 01/7/2016 12:35

Moving back up now.

[1gw] 30/6/2016 16:07

Looks like another 0.5m shares sold by Standard Life yesterday, following the apparently bigger sale 2 days ago.

[gary1966] 30/6/2016 14:58

Picked up some at £3.50 as I just think that so much is priced in now. The world isn't going to end. Referendum done but actually leaving the EU is a long way off. Company looking to reduce divi cover to 2 next year and so some protection there as well. Probably yielding 8% at current levels and a very low P/E.

GLA

[essentialinvestor] 30/6/2016 13:35

Yes that's why the mention of either the non execs or chairman not appearing
to buy recently, even on this major price decline.

[gbh2] 30/6/2016 13:18

A reassuring comment would be welcome but director buying has waned since they started grabbing a few annually so it's no surprise to me.

[essentialinvestor] 30/6/2016 12:57

No directors buying, fair enough the exec's have options,
but not a peep from the non execs or chairman it appears.

Any thoughts?.

[gbh2] 29/6/2016 21:10

I managed to get some for 337p, 6% up by the close, pity my holding is still down 20%+ :(

[1gw] 29/6/2016 19:20

Standard Life selling a chunk of shares (looks like 1.8m) yesterday according to the holdings notice.

[1gw] 29/6/2016 17:30

Curious day's trading. I was out when it tanked this morning so missed the chance to buy even lower, but did make another purchase this afternoon at 3.54, to bring my average price on purchases since the vote down to 3.93. Still underwater on the attempt to catch the falling knife (to mix my metaphors), but feels a bit better this evening.

Crest now comfortably back as 2nd biggest holding in my portfolio. Just hope that this morning was the last bit of panic selling for a while.