Chromex Share Discussion Threads

[leighton denny] 01/9/2010 09:40

kenmitch, I know all I need to know about you from the evidence of your posts which demonstrate lack of intelligence and understanding of this company, the industry it operates in or how shares work.

[sailing john] 01/9/2010 09:38

And my favourites remain Suzhou Kaiyuan Chemical Co or Samancor at circa 50p although the initial approach at 35p could have been from AN Other. Just my thoughts - DYOR etc. Hopefully we will find out soon but it could take quite a while longer to complete due diligence.

[bonsoir7] 01/9/2010 09:09

Chromex Mining added 10.5 per cent to 31½p on hopes of an update on takeover talks. Traders believe Chromex could be of interest to a Chinese bidder.

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Already been a preliminary approach from one party at 35p. One would have thought that would set the baseline.

[bizz2bizz] 01/9/2010 07:59

I didn't mention the take out price. 35P was the last mentioned price so wonder if this is still the case. Got to think it is given the present price of the stock and one would also guess we must be near to some sort of announcement after that trading yesterday. Question...is it worth buying @ 33p for a 35p takeout...me thinks not. I'd be happy to pay 29p or 9p for the options. Can't see any reason to take this higher from here.

[leighton denny] 01/9/2010 00:25

by the way for those who are not small minded and ungrateful parasites like kenmitch you should read the Financial Times' market report in todays (Wednesdays) newspaper as it mentions Chromex Mining's move yesterday and some speculation as to why it was in focus

[leighton denny] 01/9/2010 00:01

kenmitch there are two ways to convert your warrant into cash in theory

you buy it at 11p and sell it at 6p (in which case you have lost almost 50%)
i think most people would regard such a trade as a 'discount' or 'loss'

you buy it at 11p you convert by paying 20p and now have a share worth 31p which you can sell at 30p in which case you have lost about 3% a small 'discount' or loss.

however these basic calculations do not take into account the reality of the situation where you could buy the warrant within the quoted spread and sell the share also within the quoted spread thus actually a 'minor premium' in practice

furthermore there should be some premium in the warrant price to reflect volatility (gearing) and time value

thus given the very tight discount (in theory) and premium (in reality) i was completely correct to state that there was virtually no premium for that additional utility of the warrant in terms of its volatility/time value

by the way i was alerted to this stock/warrant situation by a friend in the City who works for a major bulge bracket bank who studied maths at oxbridge and i'm guessing he knows considerably more about derivative products than a jumped up self appointed thread policeman such as yourself so wind your neck in f'wit

[saucepan] 31/8/2010 18:50

Keep posting kenmitch: I enjoy your contributions.

[kenmitch] 31/8/2010 18:30

leighton denny.

I was simply pointing out an inaccuracy in your last post when you said that the warrants that were trading at a discount were with "almost no premium." You obviously know more than I do about warrants so I'll look forward to reading your posts about them and so helping all of us to do well with them. There is a very good warrant thread here on ADVFN where I'm sure quality posts from you will go down well.



Meantime time will tell whether the rise today is good news leaking out or will not be sustained. I can't see anything clownish about that statement.

[bizz2bizz] 31/8/2010 16:23

I'll close up the spread for you..8p bid. There you go you have peace of mind!

[leighton denny] 31/8/2010 16:13

so you are optimistic when price goes up and pessimistic when price goes down

what a clown

at least those who understand the company, industry and how shares work will be able to hold with equanimity

i don't know how clowns like the one above live in the real world without wearing adult nappies

[kenmitch] 31/8/2010 16:10

Almost no premium?

The warrants are now at a discount and very cheap IF there is anything behind the share price rise today.

Warrant price with zero premium (exercise price is 20p) with the share price at 33p would be 13p. At the selling price of 30p the warrants would be 10p to sell with a zero premium.

Horrible spread and likely to be difficult to sell if there is no bid.

I hold in hope - and a bit more optimistic today, if the share price tick up and bit of buying is significant.

A bid at 40p and an offer to warrant holders of 20p would be good. Anything even better would be a real bonus.

Most likely? No bid knowing my luck in bid situations like this!

[leighton denny] 31/8/2010 15:22

CHX is 30/33
CHXW is 7/11

almost no premium on the warrants for the enhanced gearing !

[sailing john] 31/8/2010 15:14

Little tick up! - slight understatement by me earlier!
Our buyer/buyers took another 25k @ 32p.
A further 25k taken/sold at 31p Hmmm - reported as a sell but something tells me it is more likely to be another buy. I'm guessing everyone now seriously short of stock!

[moosh2] 31/8/2010 14:30

unless we've had a higher takeover bid offered and someone knows about it. share price started ticking up day before initial offer. maybe maybe.

[sailing john] 31/8/2010 13:29

We appear to have a determined buyer (or buyers) today with 4*trades of 25k each at 29.5p then 30p.
Forced a little tick up :-)

[leighton denny] 27/8/2010 16:57

the patient long term investors who understand this industry have much better potential to make money here than the short term traders who have no idea of the industry dynamics

and that is how it should be

thanks for your continued illuminating contributions sj

[sailing john] 27/8/2010 16:35

As I have said before, Im not expecting bid news for weeks/months. There is a lot of due diligence work to be done especially with respect to Mecklenburg and Zimbabwe. No rush and the risk of bid failure already priced in as they are trading 25% below bid. If bid fails they are likely to fall a little but that just means it will take a little longer for full value to be recognised.
My view is that the directors won't recommend acceptance of 35p so it depends whether the bidder is prepared to either offer more, go hostile or give up.
I continue to hold a significant stake.
GL K and all
SJ

[kenmitch] 27/8/2010 14:56

No sign either of the bid or the rampers who hyped Chromex a few weeks ago!

Odds on that there won't be a bid and that there is little or no talking going on? Probably but I'm still holding the warrants just in case there is a bid.

[leighton denny] 20/8/2010 16:40

Decent finish to the week. The Warrants were looking very tempting.

[sailing john] 19/8/2010 15:54

Chinese FeCr prices up circa 10% for Sept delivery - one of the reasons given is rising ore prices :-)
SJ

[kenmitch] 18/8/2010 14:38

Interesting post Saucepan and I agree with all of it. If bid talks are ongoing then this is a buying opportunity but it's guesswork.

The warrants used to be easier to trade - I bought and sold them in the past around or even occasionally inside the quoted price.

6p is a crazy sell price with the shares where they are. Unless desperate for the money there's no point selling at that price imo as even if news is leaking of no bid, there is still time for the warrants to have a decent run. Also though a failed bid is not yet in the share price the warrants are so cheap technically that they might not fall much even if the shares drop to around 20p.

[saucepan] 18/8/2010 12:30

For what it is worth, to me, today's trades have the hallmarks of fear by the small investor that the bid might not materialise and the market taking advantage of this to garner shares on the cheap.

Due diligence can take months. The Company has already confirmed the interest of one potential predator and there could easily be others.

Of course, I could well be wrong, but am comfortable with my own exposure, presently through warrants, come what may.

They seem difficult to trade. I did a dummy sell of mine a week or so ago, when the sell price was 9p, but was only quoted WELL BELOW that price. I guess someone felt the need to sell up this morning and consequently got a dreadful quote.

Hopefully, I will be holding mine until expiry or until a bid is concluded.

[kenmitch] 18/8/2010 12:16

Good point, but I was only suggesting that if confident of a bid. Otherwise I agree, the shares could do well in time anyway, but possibly not before the warrants expire - and possibly worthless. So the shares are far the more sensible bet for those looking beyond a bid. The share price is suggesting no bid and has done for some time despite ill informed posts here suggesting the opposite. If there isn't a bid that could be a good time to buy the shares again since there must be a high chance of the shares going lower on news that bid talks have ended.

If they haven't - if only we knew - then the odd sells today could make your 10k buy today spot on. Good luck with it.

[64bit] 18/8/2010 11:48

can't see that one is better off buying an instrument timed to expire..
much better to hold the ords, be fully paid up and prepared to be patient.
added 10k at 27.6p on the back of that 25k sell.